Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We start off the day with Red Book MoM and YoY (24/Apr) at 7:55 A.M., S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices MoM and YoY (Feb), House Price Index MoM and YoY (Feb) at 8:00 A.M., CB Consumer Confidence (Apr) and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index at 9:00 A.M., 42-Day Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 7-Tear Note Auction and 2-Year FRN Auction at 12:00 P.M., API Energy Stocks and President Biden Speech at 3:30 P.M. and the FOMC Meeting.
On the Corn Front we reached a 7-Year high, and Export Inspections remain well ahead of the pace to meet expectations of the 2020/21 marketing year. Corn was reported at 1,951,012 tons, which was 391,745 tons higher than last week and 872,224 higher than a year ago. The main destinations were China and Japan. Well into the back half of the marketing year, corn inspections are 41,232,631 versus 22,426,554 a year ago. Due to cold weather plantings have been delayed and now were talking not enough rain as we key on the drought monitor. Also talk of a lower Brazil crop with funds continuing to buy which push both the May and July contract to limit bid. We have extended trading ranges today and we needed them, otherwise we would be locked limit up again in the overnight electronic session. Friday is First Notice Day for all May Grains. The next USDA Crop Production and Supply/Demand data is May 12th. In the overnight the May corn is currently trading at 712 ½ which is 32 cents higher. The trading range has been 713 to 686 ¾.
On the Ethanol Front the 16-year-old battle of gasoline-ethanol feud gets a Supreme Court showdown. The question is does the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) have the authority to grant waivers to small refineries to blend ethanol. We are talking hundreds of millions of dollars here. There were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session the May ethanol settled at 2.199 and is currently showing no market with Open Interest at 25 contracts.
On the Crude Oil Front, we have the API Energy Stocks later today. Crude oil is trading a little higher on spot demand after initial fear in yesterday’s market of a possible glut in demand with India’s Covid-Crisis overwhelming their hospitals for now six days. Analysts said raising of bets by participants in the market kept crude oil prices from completely tanking and prices did recover later in yesterday’s trading session. We also have an upcoming OPEC+ meeting which could keep cooler heads and be a gamechanger for the bears in the market. In the overnight electronic session, the June Crude Oil is currently trading at 6244 which is 53 points higher. The trading range has been 6274 to 6191.
On the natural Gas Front, the May contract expires tomorrow. The futures market started on solid footing with exports still strong and last weeks late-season cold snap that provided the futures market with a final blast of heating demand which also boosted prices, quoted by, Leticia Gonzalez with Energy Intelligence. Weather Forecasters are predicting a hot summer and traders expect global demand to boost exports and in turn boost prices even further. In the overnight electronic session, the June natural gas is currently trading at 2.885 which is .011 higher. The trading range has been 2.893 to 2.864.
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