Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Futures were higher on Friday and for the week as cold weather is threatening newly planted Cotton in Texas, but nearby months were a little lower on the weaker demand seen in the export sales report. Chart patterns still suggest that a bull flag is trying to form. Temperatures are likely to dip below freezing. The demand for US Cotton in the export market has been strong even with the Coronavirus causing disruptions at the retail level around the world. The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products. It is dry in western and southern Texas and the planting of Cotton is being delayed. Some showers are expected in western areas in the next couple of days to help there, but it is still dry overall.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures and Southeast will get dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Texas will have dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. Temperatures will average near to above normal this weekend. The USDA average price is now 84.62 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 95,536 bales, from 95,536 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 9000 July. Support is at 8600, 8450, and 8120 July, with resistance of 8790, 9030 and 9370 July.
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher in range trading. Futures are still trying to force a big low at this time. The demand for FCOJ is said to be weaker. The weather has turned warmer so less flu is around and the increased vaccination pace means that the coronavirus is less. Moderate temperatures are expected for Florida this week. The weather in Florida is good with a few showers or dry weather to promote good tree health and fruit formation. The hurricane season is coming and a big storm could threaten trees and fruit. That is still a couple of months away. It is dry in Brazil and crop conditions are called good even with drier than normal soils. Stress to trees could return if the dry weather continues as is in the forecast. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 111.00, 110.00, and 108.00 May, with resistance at 115.00, 116.00, and 120.00 May.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher on Friday and higher for the week as the fears of dry weather impacting the Brazil production continued. The main feature to the market is the weather in Brazil and the production prospects in the country. Some cooperatives and the export association are calling for a significant reduction in production with a 30% loss in production potential mentioned. It was dry at flowering time and has been dry again recently. It is also the off year in the two year production cycle. Production conditions elsewhere in Latin America are mixed with good conditions reported in northern South America and improved conditions reported in Central America after devasting floods early in the growing cycle. Conditions are reported to be generally good in Asia and Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are slightly higher today at 1.900 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 125.51 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against NY May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 851 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 145.00 July. Support is at 138.00, 134.00, and 132.00 July, and resistance is at 142.00, 145.00 and 148.00 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1450 July. Support is at 1380, 1370, and 1350 July, and resistance is at 1420, 1440, and 1470 July.
General Comments: New York closed a little higher and London closed a little lower last week as fears of dry Brazilian weather continued. Ideas of stronger Ethanol demand helped support Sugar prices last week as the competition is back for crushing and refining use. Current Sugar demand is called average. Dry conditions were reported in Brazil. The primary growing region has been dry overall but recent rains that have fallen have been very timely. Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year. Traders are worried about a delayed Brazil harvest and lack of space at Brazil ports for Sugar shipments due to the high Soybeans shipments and delayed nature of the harvest of the Soybeans. India is exporting Sugar and is reported to have a big cane crop this year. The harvest there is almost over so offers are being reduced. Thailand is expecting improved production after drought induced yield losses last year. Exports are expected by USDA to be higher in the coming year. The EU had big production problems last year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 1660, 1630, and 1610 July, and resistance is at 1700, 1730, and 1760 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 450.00, 442.00, and 439.00 August, and resistance is at 468.00, 469.00, and 476.00 August.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher in range trading. The grind data overall showed improved demand when it was released last week. The main crop harvest is over in West Africa and the mid crop harvest is active. Ports in West Africa have been filled with Cocoa. That is changing a bit as the governments of Ivory Coast and Ghana have given up on their fair wage scheme to try to tax exporters and buyers. European demand has been slow as the quarterly grind data showed a 3% decrease from a year ago in grindings. This has been caused by less demand created by the pandemic. Asian demand improved. North American data showed improved demand.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.751 million bags. ICE said that 237 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,348 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2420, 2400, and 2360 July, with resistance at 2470, 2500, and 2520 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1610, 1590, and 1570 July, with resistance at 1670, 1690, and 1720 July.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322