Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Wheat markets were sharply higher on Friday and for the week as Wheat remains a weather market. The weather remains too dry in the northern Great Plains and in the Canadian Prairies and farmers have planted into dry soils. It has been very cold and some Winterkill was possible in the central and southern Great Plains as well as the Midwest. The most damage from the freezing temperatures was expected to be in Oklahoma. There will be some precipitation with the colder air which should be mostly light but beneficial for the short term. Demand remains disappointing but the production might not be there for better demand in the coming year. Corn prices are high so demand for feed wheat could increase. The chart trends are up on the daily charts and on the weekly charts.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions after showers today. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers this weekend. Temperatures will be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see showers and rains. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with no objectives. Support is at 688, 669 and 663 May, with resistance at 715, 720, and 726 May. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 678 May. Support is at 664, 650, and 640 May, with resistance at 678, 684, and 690 May. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 679, 667, and 664 May, and resistance is at 722, 728, and 734 May.
General Comments: Rice was sharply higher last week on what appeared to be big fund buying on Thursday. There did not seem to be a real good reason for the rally, but the weekly export sales report showed good sales. Demand has been solid for exports but less for the mills and this remains the feature of the trade. The export demand has been primarily for paddy Rice and not for milled Rice. The cash market has not felt any increased demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side. Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas. Asian and Mercosur markets were steady to lower last week. New crop months were a little lower. New crop Rice is getting planted in Texas and planting is more than three quarters done in Louisiana. Mississippi and Arkansas are starting planting. It will be cold for the next few nights but the Rice should not be affected as it is still not really in the ground yet.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1330, 1325, and 1320 May, with resistance at 1350, 1357, and 1560 May.
CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed sharply higher last week on what appeared to be additional speculative buying based on ideas of strong demand and long term weather outlooks for warm and dry weather west of the Mississippi River. Futures were mixed on Friday, with nearby months higher and new crop months a little lower. Oats closed lower on Friday but higher for the week. It was very cold last week in the US and some recently planted Corn could have been hurt or at least be very slow to emerge. Temperatures will be warmer this week but there will be precipitation to keep farmers from the fields. There are also concerns about the production potential for the Safrinha crop in Brazil as growing areas have been warm and dry and look to stay that way longer term. Oats were higher. There is talk of new Chinese interest in buying US Corn. Chinese demand had been strong until recently and it looks like they need the Corn. Prices inside China for Corn remain extremely high. It is drier in central and parts of northern Brazil, and farmers have finally harvested the Soybeans area and planted the Winter Corn. The Winter Corn crop progress is well behind normal and it has been dry in major growing areas. Demand for US Corn has been coming at a stronger pace than estimated by USDA and it looks like US ending stocks can be significantly less than current projections by the end of the year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with no objectives. Support is at 624, 605, and 601 May, and resistance is at 658, 664, and 670 May. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 457 May. Support is at 393, 390, and 384 May, and resistance is at 411, 418, and 424 May.
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were sharply higher. There is still crush demand and export demand even though the demand is less now than before and the market thinks the US is going to run out of Soybeans unless demand can be rationed with high prices. The US does not have a lot of Soybeans in the country anymore as most producers have already sold. Buyers are scrambling for what is left. Brazil is rapidly exporting Soybeans. The Brazil harvest had been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems in the north as well. Harvest activities are done now. China has been buying for next year here but now is buying mostly in South America. US internal demand has been strong. Soybean Meal is under pressure due to the big buying seen in Soybean Oil although both were higher yesterday. Production of DDG can increase in the near future as ethanol demand improves and more people start driving again.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 120,000 tons of US new crop Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1560 May. Support is at 1500, 1460, and 1456 May, and resistance is at 1550, 1556, and 1568 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 431.00 and 439.00 May. Support is at 413.00, 407.00, and 402.00 May, and resistance is at 425.00, 433.00, and 439.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 6440 May. Support is at 6020, 5820, and 5660 May, with resistance at 6360, 6420, and 6480 May.
DJ Brazil 2020-2021 Soybean Harvest Nears Finish as Estimates Rise – Market Talk
1342 ET – Brazilian soybean farmers had finished harvesting on 91.3% of the estimated planted area for the oilseeds as of April 16, up from 87.2% on the same date a week earlier and higher than the 89.4% five-year average for the date, according to Flávio Roberto de Franca Junior, an analyst at agricultural consultant Datagro. The group raised its estimate for total soybean production in the 2020-2021 growing season to 136.1 million metric tons, which would be a record for Brazil. That estimate is in line with the USDA’s calculation of 136 million tons for the 2020-2021 season, and would make Brazil the world’s biggest soybean producer for the second year in a row, ahead of the US. (email@example.com)
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower on Friday but higher for the week on good demand and price action in the other competing markets. Futures were lower today on demand concerns about India and its worsening Covid situation. The private sources showed that export demand is running well ahead of last month so far this month. Ideas of tight supplies are still around but MPOB did show higher than expected ending stocks in its March data released last week. An analyst said on Friday that supplies available to the market would increase over the next several months. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia. Canola was higher on ideas of tight supplies combined with a drought in the Canadian Prairies. Canada has bought a couple of cargoes of Rapeseed from Ukraine and might buy more due to price spreads between the two producing countries. Worries about South American production are supporting both markets as is cold and dry weather in the Prairies. Demand is thought to be great with crush margins favoring a lot of production of vegetable oils to feed the demand. The demand for bio fuels is about to increase and is one reason to see much stronger Soybean Oi and Canola prices.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 855.00, 844.00, and 830.00 May, with resistance at 885.00, 890.00, and 896.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 3940, 3850, and 3810 July, with resistance at 4280, 4340, and 4400 July.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Rain tomorrow, then drier. Temperatures should average near below normal this weekend and above normal early next week.Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322