Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
The grain prices are retreating after another limit move for corn recently. The price of corn, cotton and wheat have risen over 50% which is driving the cost of everyday commodities higher consumed in the grocery store. Even though Export Sales were weaker for corn and soybeans the fundamentals are painting a bullish picture with U.S. weather concerns, South America weather concerns, with bullish product that has analyst chirping $7 corn already in April. We have funds actively buying and this market should get more bullish support according to demand and weather forecasts. The Export Sales came in at 417,000 metric tons (mmt) vs. trade expectations ranging from 350,000 (mmt) to 1.1 million metric tons. In the overnight electronic session, the May corn is currently trading at 641 ¾ which is 8 3/3 cents lower. Thee trading range has been 645 ½ to 638 ¼.
On the Ethanol Front production holds as stocks slides. Production was mostly steady while stocks hit a 22-week low. Stocks remain around 7.242 barrels shy of last year at this time. There were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session. The May contract settled at 2.199 and is currently showing no market with Open Interest at 25 contracts.
On the Crude Oil Front the market has been in a chop not able to violate the moving average. I anticipate the market will break through the moving average to the upside so long-term I remain bullish. In the overnight electronic session, the June Crude Oil is currently trading at 6166 which is 23 points higher. The trading range has been 6212 to 6135.
On the Natural Gas Front, the market has fallen off but did bounce from the 50-Day moving average. The Biden administration is waking up to the reality that this commodity could be huge in the export market, especially with Russia trying to be the lone wolf or I should say Bear export to the EU. We know they will be #1 for decades, but for the EU’s national security they should have other importers. In the overnight electronic session, the May natural gas is currently trading at 2.747 which is .002 lower. The light trading range has been 2.764 to 2.746.
Have A Great Trading Day!