Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher as Wheat remains a weather market. The weather remains too dry in the northern Great Plains and in the Canadian Prairies and farmers have planted into dry soils. It has been very cold and some Winterkill was possible in the central and southern Great Plains. Any damage is expected to be light. There will be some precipitation with the colder air which should be mostly light but beneficial for the short term. Demand remains disappointing but the production might not be there for better demand in the coming year. Corn prices are high so demand for feed wheat could increase. The chart trends are up on the daily charts and on the weekly charts.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see general rains. Temperatures will be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see showers and rains. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 709 May. Support is at 656, 650, and 644 May, with resistance at 680, 685, and 694 May. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 648 and 678 May. Support is at 609, 600, and 591 May, with resistance at 620, 623, and 629 May. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 671 and 690 May. Support is at 658, 650, and 639 May, and resistance is at 670, 674, and 680 May.
General Comments: Rice was near unchanged in the front months on what appeared to be speculative selling tied to ideas of weaker demand. Demand has been solid for exports but less for the mills and this remains the feature of the trade. The export demand has been primarily for paddy Rice and not for milled Rice. The cash market has not felt any increased demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side. Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas. Asian and Mercosur markets were steady to lower last week. New crop months were a little lower. New crop Rice is getting planted in Texas and planting is more than three quarters done in Louisiana. Mississippi and Arkansas are starting planting. It will be cold for the next few nights but the Rice should not be affected as it is still not really in the ground yet.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1267, 1264, and 1246 May. Support is at 1279, 1276, and 1273 May, with resistance at 1300, 1304, and 1309 May.
CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher on what appeared to be speculative buying based on ideas of strong demand and long term weather outlooks for warm and dry weather west of the Mississippi River. It is currently very cold in the US and some recently planted Corn could get hurt or at least be very slow to emerge. There are also concerns about the production potential for the Safrinha crop in Brazil as growing areas have been warm and dry. Oats were higher. Chinese demand had been strong until recently and it looks like they need the Corn. Prices inside China for Corn remain extremely high. It is drier in central and parts of northern Brazil, and farmers have finally harvested the Soybeans area and planted the Winter Corn. The Winter Corn crop progress is well behind normal and it has been dry in major growing areas. Some showers are possible in southern areas this week. Showers could also fall in the north for some temporary support to Corn in both areas, but much more and more general rains are needed. Demand for US Corn has been coming at a stronger pace than estimated by USDA and it looks like US ending stocks can be significantly less than current projections by the end of the year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 614 May. Support is at 601, 595, and 589 May, and resistance is at 614, 620, and 626 May. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 391, 409, and 457 May. Support is at 384, 380, and 379 May, and resistance is at 391, 400, and 402 May.
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher. Soybean Oil was sharply higher. There is still crush demand and export demand even though the demand is less now than before and the market thinks the US is going to run out of Soybeans unless demand can be rationed with high prices. The US does not have a lot of Soybeans in the country anymore as most producers have already sold. Buyers are scrambling for what is left. Brazil is rapidly exporting Soybeans. The Brazil harvest had been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems in the north as well. Harvest activities are done now. China has been buying for next year here but now is buying mostly in South America. US internal demand has been strong. Soybean Meal is under pressure due to the big buying seen in Soybean Oil although both were higher yesterday. Production of DDG can increase in the near future as ethanol demand improves and more people start driving again.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1400 May. Support is at 1456, 1437, and 1431 May, and resistance is at 1496, 1508, and 1520 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 424.00 and 431.00 May. Support is at 410.00, 402.00, and 395.00 May, and resistance is at 418.00, 424.00, and 433.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 5900, 5920, and 6440 May. Support is at 5620, 5460, and 5340 May, with resistance at 5920, 5980, and 6040 May.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on good demand. The private sources yesterday showed that export demand is running well ahead of last month so far this month. Ideas of tight supplies are still around but MPOB did show higher than expected ending stocks in its March data released last week. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia. Canola was higher on ideas of tight supplies combined with a drought in the Canadian Prairies. Canada has bought a couple of cargoes of Rapeseed from Ukraine and might buy more due to price spreads between the two producing countries. Worries about South American production are supporting both markets as is cold and dry weather in the Prairies. Demand is thought to be great with crush margins favoring a lot of production of vegetable oils to feed the demand. The demand for bio fuels is about to increase and is one reason to see much stronger Soybean Oi and Canola prices.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 878.00 May. Support is at 844.00, 830.00, and 816.00 May, with resistance at 866.00, 872.00, and 878.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 3860 July. Support is at 3720, 3650, and 3600 July, with resistance at 3820, 3880, and 3940 July.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Rain or snow off and on this week. Temperatures should average below normal.Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322