Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher last week as Wheat remains a weather market. The weather remains too dry in the northern Great Plains and in the Canadian Prairies and farmers can’t plant. It has been very cold and some Winterkill was possible in the central and southern Great Plains. Any damage is expected to be light. There will be some precipitation with the colder air which should be mostly light but beneficial for the short term. Demand remains disappointing with net cancellations of export sales in the weekly report last week. The chart trends are up on the daily charts and on the weekly charts.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see general rains. Temperatures will be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see showers and rains. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 670 and 709 May. Support is at 644, 637, and 628 May, with resistance at 665, 669, and 672 May. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 614, 648, and 678 May. Support is at 600, 591, and 587 May, with resistance at 620, 623, and 629 May. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 671 and 690 May. Support is at 658, 650, and 639 May, and resistance is at 668, 674, and 680 May.
General Comments: Rice was a little lower on Friday and for the week on what appeared to be speculative selling tied to ideas of weaker demand. Demand has been solid for exports but less for the mills and this remains the feature of the trade. The export demand has been primarily for paddy Rice and not for milled Rice. The cash market has not felt any increased demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side. Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas. Asian and Mercosur markets were steady to lower last week. New crop Rice is getting planted in Texas and planting is more than three quarters done in Louisiana. Mississippi and Arkansas are starting planting.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1267, 1264, and 1246 May. Support is at 1284, 1279, and 1276 May, with resistance at 1300, 1304, and 1309 May.
CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed higher on what appeared to be speculative buying based on ideas of strong demand and long term weather outlooks for warm and dry weather west of the Mississippi River. There are also concerns about the production potential for the Safrinha crop in Brazil. Oats were higher. Chinese demand had been strong until recently and it looks like they need the Corn. Prices inside China for Corn remain extremely high. It is drier in central and parts of northern Brazil, and farmers have finally harvested the Soybeans area and planted the Winter Corn. The Winter Corn crop progress is well behind normal and it has been dry in major growing areas. Some showers are possible in southern areas this week. Showers could also fall in the north for some temporary support to Corn in both areas, but much more and more general rains are needed. Demand for US Corn has been coming at a stronger pace than estimated by USDA and it looks like US ending stocks can be significantly less than current projections by the end of the year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 604, 607, and 614 May. Support is at 584, 566, and 561 May, and resistance is at 602, 608, and 614 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 391, 409, and 457 May. Support is at 379, 376, and 371 May, and resistance is at 386, 387, and 390 May.
General Comments: Soybeans were higher and Soybean Meal was about unchanged last week. Spyb4ans have been rallying with Corn and Soybean Oil. Also, there is still crush demand and export demand even though the demand is less now than before. The US does not have a lot of Soybeans in the country anymore as most producers have already sold. Buyers are scrambling for what is left. The Brazil harvest had been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems in the north as well. Harvest activities have increased but the harvest remains very slow overall. China has been buying for next year here but now is buying mostly in South America. US internal demand has been strong. Soybean Meal is under pressure on ideas of big production caused by the big rally in Soybean Oil. Production of DDG can increase in the near future as ethanol demand improves and more people start driving again.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1344, 1387, and 1400 May. Support is at 1417, 1399, and 1378 May, and resistance is at 1446, 1456, and 1460 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 395.00, 390.00, and 385.00 May, and resistance is at 406.00, 409.00, and 418.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 5900, 5920, and 6440 May. Support is at 5490, 5340, and 5090 May, with resistance at 5920, 5980, and 6040 May.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: World vegetable oils prices were higher last week with the most strength in Soybean Oil and Canola. Palm Oil closed higher last week on reports of good demand from the private sources for the first part of April. It was lower today on hopes for increasing supplies. Ideas of tight supplies are still around but MPOB did show higher than expected ending stocks in its March data released last week. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia. Canola was higher on ideas of tight supplies combined with a drought in the Canadian Prairies. Soybean Oil was higher and closed at the highs of the week. Worries about South American production are supporting both markets. Demand is thought to be great with crush margins favoring a lot of production of vegetable oils to feed the demand. The demand for bio fuels is about to increase and is one reason to see much stronger Soybean Oil prices.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 840.00 and 878.00 May. Support is at 816.00, 805.00, and 796.00 May, with resistance at 842.00, 848.00, and 854.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 3860 July. Support is at 3650, 3600, and 3540 July, with resistance at 3720, 3780, and 3830 July.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Rain or snow off and on this week. Temperatures should average below normal.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322