About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were sharply higher on a weaker US Dollar and a recovery in the stock market. The weather has become important. It remains dry in western and southern Texas and planting of Cotton has been delayed. Scattered showers are in the forecast for the next few days to provide some relief and it will be colder. USDA increased export demand and lowered ending stocks levels in its supply and demand updaters released last Friday. Domestic demand was left unchanged. The demand for US Cotton in the export market has been strong. The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and below normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers late this week and below normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 79.74 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 95,536 bales, from 95,536 bales yesterday. USDA said that net weekly Upland Cotton export sales were 122,300 bales this year and 22,800 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 3,100 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8500 and 8950 May. Support is at 8120, 7990, and 7930 May, with resistance of 8560, 8660 and 8700 May.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little higher and started to break out higher from recent trading ranges on the daily charts. The demand for FCOJ is said to be weaker. The weather has turned warmer so less flu is around and the increased vaccination pace means that the coronavirus is less. Moderate temperatures are expected for Florida this week. The weather in Florida is good with a few showers or dry weather to promote good tree health and fruit formation. It is dry in Brazil and crop conditions are called good even with drier than normal soils. Stress to trees could return if the dry weather continues as is in the forecast. Then comes the hurricane season. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas. USDA cut it production estimate again but the market did not react much to the news.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 113.00, 116.00, and 136.00 My. Support is at 110.00, 108.00, and 106.00 May, with resistance at 112.00, 114.00, and 116.00 May.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher in both markets with New York leading the way. The dry weather in Brazil and the lack of exports now and down the road are supporting futures. The London market is trying to form a low on the daily charts. Trends are up on the daily charts in New York. Vietnam producers are selling some Coffee amid reports of good weather in Vietnam for the harvest. Indonesia has had good weather but has little coffee to sell now. Dry conditions are reported in Brazil again. Trees might get stressed again in the dry weather continues as it is forecast to do. Cooxupe has said in the last few weeks that its members anticipate producing about 32% less Coffee this year due to dry and hot conditions last year and the second year of the production cycle for the trees. Cecafe also expects reduced exports in the coming year. Central America is also drier for harvesting but production might have been reduced due to very wet conditions during the growing season. Good growing conditions are reported in Colombia and Peru. Africa is also noting good growing conditions. Good growing conditions are generally reported in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.876 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 122.34 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 136.00 and 140.00 May. Support is at 129.00, 127.00, and 125.00 May, and resistance is at 134.00, 136.00 and 140.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1380, 1410, and 1600 May. Support is at 1350, 1330, and 1310 May, and resistance is at 1370, 1400, and 1420 May.

DJ Brazil 2020-2021 Coffee Crop 90% Sold — Market Talk
09:38 ET – Brazilian coffee growers had sold 90% of the 2020-2021 crop as of April 13, according to agricultural consultancy Safras & Mercado, slightly ahead of the 89% sold on the same date last year and the 88% five-year average for the date. Safras estimates the 2020-2021 coffee crop reached 69.5M 132-pound bags, and 62.8M bags have been sold. The 2021-2022 crop will be smaller than the 2020-2021 crop because of Brazil’s two-year production cycle, and the upcoming crop was also hit by bad weather last year during periods key to the development of the plants. Growers and analysts are still working on forecasts for the size of the upcoming crop, though many say the decline from 2020-2021 will be about 30%. (jeffrey.lewis@wsj.com)

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday and trends have turned up in both markets. Ideas of stronger Ethanol demand helped support Sugar prices last week as the competition is back for crushing and refining use. Current Sugar demand is called average. Dry conditions were reported in Brazil. It has been raining in south central Brazil until recently and the production of cane is looking good for the next harvest. Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year and this week is dry. Some rain is in the forecast in a few days. Traders are worried about a delayed Brazil harvest and lack of space at Brazil ports for Sugar shipments due to the high Soybeans shipments and delayed nature of the harvest of the Soybeans. India is exporting Sugar and is reported to have a big cane crop this year. Thailand is expecting improved production after drought induced yield losses last year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1590, 160-0, and 1620 July. Support is at 1560, 1530, and 1510 July, and resistance is at 1590, 1610, and 1650 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 438.00, 447.00, and 464.00 August. Support is at 436.00, 428.00, and 426.00 August, and resistance is at 449.00, 452.00, and 458.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed higher and London was mixed to lower. London remains the weakest market but is at least holding its recent lows. The chart trends could turn up in New York as the market could be bottoming. Trends are still down in London. The main crop harvest is active in Nigeria and is spreading to Ivory Coast and Ghana. Demand should improve as the Covid vaccinations get administered and as at least some governments around the world invest in fiscal stimulus on their economies. Fears of a Coronavirus resurgence are hurting demand ideas and the vaccinations have been harder to administer in Europe lately due to citizen resistance. Production appears to be good this year and the supply surplus is growing.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.655 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2530, 2710, and 2830 May. Support is at 2360, 2330, and 2300 May, with resistance at 2420, 2440, and 2510 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1370 May. Support is at 1580, 1570, and 1540 May, with resistance at 1620, 1630, and 1680 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322