Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower in correction trading. The weather remains too dry in the northern Great Plains and in the Canadian Prairies and farmers can’t plant. However, some rain has started to appear in some forecasts. The chart trends are mostly up on the daily charts and are turning up on the weekly charts. The USDA WASDE reports released n Friday were neutral for prices. USDA cut export and feed demand and raised ending stocks. Demand has been disappointing so far as traders had expected better exports due to problems in Russia and parts of Europe earlier in the year.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should see general rains. Temperatures will be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see showers and rains. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 669, 670 and 709 May. Support is at 620, 610, and 599 May, with resistance at 645, 649, and 658 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 602, 614, and 648 May. Support is at 568, 558, and 551 May, with resistance at 587, 592, and 595 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 671 and 690 May. Support is at 624, 609, and 596 May, and resistance is at 659, 662, and 668 May.
General Comments: Rice was mixed, but a little higher in the active months. USDA released its monthly supply and demand reports on Friday and demand was cut for both domestic and export needs. Ending stocks were higher. Demand has been solid for exports but less for the mills and this remains the feature of the trade. The export demand has been primarily for paddy Rice and not for milled Rice. The cash market has not felt any increased export demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side. Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas. Asian and Mercosur markets were steady to lower last week. New crop Rice is mostly planted in Texas and planting is more than three quarters done in Louisiana. Mississippi is underway but it remains too cold in Arkansas for much planting to get done.
Overnight News: The Delta should get rains. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1287, 1264, and 1246 May. Support is at 1300, 1290, and 1283 May, with resistance at 1319, 1330, and 1345 May.
CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed mostly lower on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation, but December was unchanged. Oats were a little lower. The market appeared to be reacting to the USDA reports released on Friday and encountered buy the rumor and sell the fact trading. Chinese demand had been strong until recently and it looks like they need the Corn. Prices inside China for Corn remain extremely high. It is drier in central and parts of northern Brazil, and farmers have finally harvested the Soybeans area and planted the Winter Corn. The Winter Corn crop progress is well behind normal. Argentina is dry again and Corn in Argentina is losing yield to dry conditions and crop stress. Southern Brazil is also dry. USDA released its newest WASDE supply and demand estimates and the reports were called neutral by the trade. Demand weas raised on the domestic side and the export side, but could easily have been raised more. Ending stocks were 150 million bushels lower than last month and are trending lower.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 607 May. Support is at 565, 552, and 547 May, and resistance is at 586, 595, and 602 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 367, 365, and 360 May, and resistance is at 379, 382, and 384 May.
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower in response to the USDA WASDE report and weakness in Palm Oil futures. Trends turned down on the daily charts in Soybeans. Soybean Meal closed a little higher on spreads against Soybean Oil. The report showed unchanged ending stocks estimates for the US and that was expected. However, Brazil Soybeans production was increased and Argentine Soybeans production held steady. The trade had expected some increase in the Brail production after private estimates from Brazil showed higher production. The Argentine estimates were a surprise as the market had expected less production from there. Futures price trends turned mixed in Soybeans and down Soybean Meal. The Brazil harvest had been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems in the north as well. Harvest activities have increased but the harvest remains very slow overall. China has been buying for next year here but now is buying mostly in South America. US internal demand has been strong.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1344 and 1287 May. Support is at 1365, 1357, and 1352 May, and resistance is at 1413, 1420, and 1435 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 396.00 and 368.00 May. Support is at 397.00, 390.00, and 385.00 May, and resistance is at 406.00, 409.00, and 418.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4980 and 4690 May. Support is at 5090, 5020, and 4860 May, with resistance at 5270, 5410, and 5460 May.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower higher today on the back of the rally in Soybean Oil in Chicago overnight. Palm Oil closed higher last week on reports of good demand from the private sources for March and the first part of April. Ideas of tight supplies are still around. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia. Canola was a little lower on Soybean Oil and Palm Oil weakness and despite ideas of tight supplies combined with a drought in the Canadian Prairies. Worries about South American production are supporting both markets.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 824.00 and 840.00 May. Support is at 796.00, 786.00, and 780.00 May, with resistance at 827.00, 830.00, and 836.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 3570 and 3400 June. Support is at 3630, 3580, and 3470 June, with resistance at 3800, 3870, and 3920 June.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322