Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Futures were lower in early trading and mostly held the gains to close higher. Traders were reacting to the lack of rain in the western Great Plains. None is in the forecast for the next couple of weeks. Producers told USDA late last week that they intend to plant 11.95 million acres of Cotton this year. Most likely the market will want a bigger area planted to Cotton and will rally prices. The chart trends are still sideways on the daily charts. The demand for US Cotton in the export market has been strong even with the Coronavirus causing disruptions at the retail level around the world. The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers late this week and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 75.04 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 95,537 bales, from 95,537 bales yesterday. USDA said that et weekly Upland Cotton export sales were 269,900 bales this year and 49,000 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 7,500 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 7770, 7710, and 7660 May, with resistance of 8150, 8290 and 8420 May.
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little lower and the trends are still down on the daily charts. It was a consolidation day after making new lows for the move the previous session. The demand for FCOJ is said to be weaker as the Coronvirus has been less in the US. The weather has turned warmer so less flu is reported. Export demand has been light due to higher domestic prices being charged when compared to world prices. Moderate temperatures are expected for Florida this week. The weather in Florida is good with a few showers or dry weather to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Showers have fallen in Brazil, but it is dry now and crop conditions are called good even with drier than normal soils. Stress to trees could return if the dry weather continues. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 108.00, 103.00, and 102.00 My. Support is at 108.00, 106.00, and 104.00 May, with resistance at 110.00, 113.00, and 114.00 May.
General Comments: Futures were mixed yesterday in New York and lower in London. New York is showing sideways trends with upside potential. London can slide further but is also now in a sideways trend. Cash market buyers are not buying much Coffee but offers are not strong from many origins. Vietnam producers are selling some Coffee as are the Brazilians but both appear to be selling small amounts. There are reports of good weather in Vietnam for the harvest. Indonesia has little coffee to sell now. Dry conditions are reported in Brazil again. Trees might get stressed again in the dry weather continues for several more days. Brazilian coops are already predicting less to much less production this year due to the second year of the cycle and poor rains at flowering time. Central America is also drier for harvesting but production might have been reduced due to very wet conditions during the growing season. Good growing conditions are reported in Colombia and Peru. Africa is also noting good growing conditions.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.863 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 117.56 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 136.00 and 140.00 May. Support is at 122.00, 121.00, and 118.00 May, and resistance is at 130.00, 133.00 and 135.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1340 and 1300 May. Support is at 1310, 1300, and 1270 May, and resistance is at 1370, 1400, and 1420 May.
General Comments: New York and London closed mixed and both markets held to the recent trading range. The chart trends are still mostly down on the weekly charts but are sideways on the daily charts. Dry conditions were reported in Brazil. It has been raining in south central Brazil until recently and the production of cane is looking good for the next harvest. Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year and this week is dry again. Traders are worried about a delayed Brazil harvest and lack of space at Brazil ports for Sugar shipments due to the high Soybeans shipments and delayed nature of the harvest of the Soybeans. India is exporting Sugar and is reported to have a big cane crop this year. Thailand is expecting improved production after drought induced yield losses last year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1490, 1470, and 1460 May, and resistance is at 1530, 1560, and 1600 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 418.00, 408.00, and 400.00 May, and resistance is at 430.00, 433.00, and 440.00 May.
General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed mixed with speculators reacting to currency changes between the US Dollar and British Pound. Chart trends are sideways on the daily charts. The main crop harvest is active Ivory Coast and Ghana. Mid crop harvesting is reported in a couple of states in Nigeria. Demand should improve as the Covid vaccinations get administered and as at least some governments around the world invest in fiscal stimulus on their economies. Fears of a Coronavirus resurgence are hurting demand ideas and the vaccinations have been harder to administer in Europe lately due to citizen resistance. Production appears to be good this year and the supply surplus is growing.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.541 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2350, 2320, and 2300 May, with resistance at 2420, 2440, and 2480 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1680, 1660, and 1630 May, with resistance at 1730, 1760, and 1800 May.Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322