About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT 

General Comments  Wheat markets were lower as traders started to prepare for the USDA WASDE estimates that will be released on Friday morning.  Some think USDA could cut export demand and increase ending stocks.  Crop conditions are rated high by USDA.  Futures held support and traded in a range yesterday.  Weekly chart trends are still down but daily chart trends are mixed.  USDA said that the quarterly stocks and the planted area were higher than trade expectations late last week.  Demand has been disappointing so far as traders had expected better exports due to problems in Russia and parts of Europe earlier in the year.  Ideas are that rain that has been falling in the Great Plains will help injured Winter Wheat.  Temperatures dropped below 0F in many areas a few weeks ago and that is cold enough to kill an unprotected crop.  The actual damage will take some time to see under warmer temperatures and it might take until harvest to see the full effects of the recent extreme cold.  Wheat conditions are improved overall after a rough start to the crop.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should be variable.  Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near to below normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 610, 599, and 592 May, with resistance at 627, 632, and 643 May.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 553, 551, and 543 May, with resistance at 562, 575, and 587 May.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 607, 596, and 591 May, and resistance is at 630, 632, and 640 May.

 

RICE  

General Comments:  Rice was a little higher as traders started to prepare for the WASDE estimates that USDA will release on Friday.  The USDA quarterly stocks report showed big supplies with merchants and big supplies overall.  Demand has been solid for exports but less for the mills and this remains the feature of the trade.  The export demand has been primarily for paddy Rice and not for milled Rice.  The cash market has not felt any increased export demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side.  Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas.  Asian and Mercosur markets were steady to firm last week.  New crop Rice is getting planted in Texas and planting is more than half done in Louisiana.  Mississippi is starting.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.

Chart Analysis:   Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1307, 1300, and 1290 May, with resistance at 1330, 1345, and 1350 May.

 

CORN AND OATS:  

General Comments:  Corn closed higher with most of the gains seen in the front months.  Oats were a little lower.  Traders are anticipating less ending stocks and increased export and domestic demand in the USDA WASDE estimates that will be released on Friday morning.  USDA late last week showed that inventories were a little less than expected, implying greater than expected feed use.  USDA also showed significantly less planting intentions by farmers for Corn than the trade had expected.  This is in dispute now as the weather in the Midwest is warm and dry and is implying more Corn planting.  It is drier in central and parts of northern Brazil, and farmers are able to harvest much of the Soybeans area and plant the Winter Corn.  The Winter Corn crop progress is well behind normal.  Argentina has seen a general rain in recent weeks and Corn in Argentina has stabilized after losing yield to dry conditions and crop stress.  Southern Brazil is still dry.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 577 and 607 May.  Support is at 547, 534, and 529 May, and resistance is at 568, 572, and 578 May.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 367, 362, and 360 May, and resistance is at 382, 384, and 386 May.

 

SOYBEANS 

General Comments:  Soybeans were lower in range trading yesterday.  Soybean Meal was higher and Soybean Oil was much lower.  Futures price trends are turning up in Soybeans and are turning up in Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil.  Higher prices for Soybeans appear to be likely.  Selling has come in recent sessions on ideas that the ongoing Brazil harvest will kill current demand for US Soybeans.  Demand was worse last week but the US has now sold 99% of its target amount of Soybeans for the marketing year and really has very few Soybeans left to sell.  The Brazil harvest had been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems in the north as well.  Harvest activities have increased but the harvest remains very slow overall.  China is buying mostly in South America.  US internal demand has been strong.

Overnight News:    

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1453, 1460, and 1472 May.  Support is at 1395, 1365, and 1353 May, and resistance is at 1420, 1435, and 1446 May.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 429.00 May.   Support is at 405.00, 401.00, and 397.00 May, and resistance is at 418.00, 424.00, and 427.00 May.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 5620, 5920, and 5930 May.  Support is at 5300, 5180, and 5090 May, with resistance at 5460, 5530, and 5570 May.

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL          

General Comments:  Palm Oil closed lower in sympathy with the Chicago price action yesterday.  Demand had been expected to drop off but recovered instead and is currently thought to be strong.  Ideas of tight supplies are still around.  Canola was higher on what appeared to be speculative buying tied to ideas of tight supplies and good demand from crushers.  Worries about South American production are supporting Canola but the weather is better now.  Trends are up in Canola on the daily charts.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 820.00, 824.00, and 840.00 May.  Support is at 780.00, 770.00, and 757.00 May, with resistance at 806.00, 811.00, and 818.00 May.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3390 June.  Support is at 3760, 3650, and 3620 June, with resistance at 3930, 4040, and 4060 June.

 

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Showers over the middle of the week.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322