About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were lower in Friday on what appeared to be renewed speculative selling. Futures were lower for the week as the US Dollar rallied and hurt demand ideas. Producers told USDA they intend to plant 11.95 million actress of Cotton this year although this could change if prices rally or fall from current levels. Most likely the market will want a bigger area planted to Cotton and will rally prices. The trends turned down on the weekly charts due to the price action of last week. The chart trends are sideways on the daily charts. The demand for US Cotton in the export market has been strong even with the Coronavirus causing disruptions at the retail level around the world. The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 73.34 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 95,537 bales, from 95,537 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 7680 May. Support is at 7710, 7660, and 7400 May, with resistance of 8100, 8150 and 8290 May.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little higher and the trends are now sideways on the daily charts and the weekly charts. Support is showing at current price levels as futures do not appear ready to make new lows on the daily charts. The demand for FCOJ is said to be weaker as the Coronavirus has been less in the US. The weather has turned warmer so less flu is around as well. Moderate temperatures are expected for Florida this week. The weather in Florida is good with a few showers or dry weather to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Showers have fallen in Brazil, but it is dry now and crop conditions are called good even with drier than normal soils. Stress to trees could return if the dry weather continues. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 109.00, 106.00, and 104.00 May, with resistance at 114.00, 114.00, and 116.00 May.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower for the week and trends are down on the weekly charts. The price action is weak in both markets but New York is now near objectives for the move. London can slide further. Cash market buyers are not buying much Coffee but offers are not strong from many origins. Vietnam producers are selling some Coffee. There are reports of good weather in Vietnam for the harvest. Indonesia has had good weather but has little coffee to sell now. Dry conditions are reported in Brazil again but crop conditions are still good. Trees might get stressed again in the dry weather continues for several more days. Cooxupe said its members anticipated producing about 32% less Coffee this year due to dry and hot conditions last year and the second year of the production cycle for the trees. Central America is also drier for harvesting but production might have been reduced due to very wet conditions during the growing season. Good growing conditions are reported in Colombia and Peru. Africa is also noting good growing conditions.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.845 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 115.83 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 122.00 May. Support is at 121.00, 118.00, and 115.00 May, and resistance is at 125.00, 127.00 and 130.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1340 and 1300 May. Support is at 1310, 1300, and 1270 May, and resistance is at 1370, 1400, and 1420 May.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed lower on Friday on improvcd world production prospects. London closed mixed, with nearby prices a little higher. The chart trends are still mostly down on the daily and the weekly charts. Current Sugar demand is called average. Dry conditions were reported in Brazil. It has been raining in south central Brazil until recently and the production of cane is looking good for the next harvest. Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year and this week could be dry again. Traders are worried about a delayed Brazil harvest and lack of space at Brazil ports for Sugar shipments due to the high Soybeans shipments and delayed nature of the harvest of the Soybeans. India is exporting Sugar and is reported to have a big cane crop this year. Thailand is expecting improved production after drought induced yield losses last year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 1460, 1430, and 1400 May, and resistance is at 1500, 1530, and 1560 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 418.00 and 400.00 May. Support is at 418.00, 408.00, and 400.00 May, and resistance is at 430.00, 433.00, and 440.00 May.

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed a little higher in consolidation trading on Friday but were still lower for the week. Chart trends are still down on the daily and weekly charts. New York is near recent contract lows. The main crop harvest is active in Nigeria and is spreading to Ivory Coast and Ghana. Demand should improve as the Covid vaccinations get administered and as at least some governments around the world invest in fiscal stimulus on their economies. Fears of a Coronavirus resurgence are hurting demand ideas and the vaccinations have been harder to administer in Europe lately due to citizen resistance. Production appears to be good this year and the supply surplus is growing.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.472 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2370, 2340, and 2300 May, with resistance at 2420, 2440, and 2480 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1680, 1660, and 1630 May, with resistance at 1730, 1760, and 1800 May.

 

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322