About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on Friday on what appeared to be speculative selling. The markets were a little lower for the week after being much lower earlier in the week and then recovering. Weekly chart trends are still down but daily chart trends are mixed. USDA said that the quarterly stocks and the planted area were higher than trade expectations. Demand has been disappointing so far as traders had expected better exports due to problems in Russia and parts of Europe earlier in the year. Ideas are that rain that has been falling in the Great Plains will help injured Winter Wheat. Temperatures dropped below 0F in many areas a few weeks ago and that is cold enough to kill an unprotected crop. The actual damage will take some time to see under warmer temperatures and it might take until harvest to see the full effects of the recent extreme cold. Wheat conditions are improved overall after a rough start to the crop.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Unknown destinations bought 130,000 tons of US Wheat
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 599, 593, and 592 May, with resistance at 621, 632, and 643 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 559, 553, and 551 May, with resistance at 587, 595, and 603 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 591, 580, and 578 May, and resistance is at 600, 621, and 625 May.

 

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower on Thursday on what appeared to be speculative selling that came in reaction to the USDA reports released Wednesday morning. Planted area estimates were on the low side of expectations while the quarterly stocks report showed big supplies with merchants and big supplies overall. Demand has been solid for exports but less for the mills and this remains the feature of the trade. The export demand has been primarily for paddy Rice and not for milled Rice. The cash market has not felt any increased export demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side. Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas. Asian and Mercosur markets were steady to firm last week. New crop Rice is getting planted in Texas and planting is up to half done in Louisiana. Mississippi is about to start.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1307, 1300, and 1290 May, with resistance at 1330, 1345, and 1350 May.

 

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed mixed, with what appeared to be speculative profit taking driving nearby prices a little lower but continued speculative buying supporting new crop prices. Corn closed a little higher for the week. Oats were a little lower. Corn traded limit up on Wednesday in response to the USDA reports. USDA showed that inventories were a little less than expected, implying greater than expected feed use. USDA also showed significantly less planting intentions by farmers for Corn than the trade had expected. It was the latter report that really sent the market up to or close to limit up levels. Oats were higher, Traders are still concerned that China might not buy more US Corn because the political talks were not productive and the South American harvest is just down the road. Chinese demand had been strong until recently and it looks like they need the Corn. Prices inside China for Corn remain extremely high. It is drier in central and parts of northern Brazil, and farmers are able to harvest much of the Soybeans area and plant much of the Winter Corn. The Winter Corn crop progress is well behind normal. Argentina has seen a general rain in the last week and Corn in Argentina has stabilized after losing yield to dry conditions and crop stress. Southern Brazil is also in a better place on crop conditions. More rain is in the forecast for these areas in the next week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 577 and 607 May. Support is at 552, 547, and 534 May, and resistance is at 568, 572, and 578 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 391 and 409 May. Support is at 367, 362, and 360 May, and resistance is at 382, 384, and 386 May.

 

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were sharply lower in old crop months on Thursday as some speculative profit taking showed up after trading limit up on Wednesday. New crop months moved higher on Thursday after trading limit up on Wednesday. The rally came in reaction to the USDA reports that showed quarterly stocks about as expected but planting intentions at levels much less than expected by the trade. Futures price trends turned up in Soybeans and Soybean Meal and are mixed in Soybean Oil. Higher prices for Soybeans appear to be likely. Selling has come in recent sessions on ideas that the ongoing Brazil harvest will kill current demand for US Soybeans. Demand was worse last week but the US has now sold 99% of its target amount of Soybeans for the marketing year and really has very few Soybeans left to sell. The Brazil harvest had been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems in the north as well. Harvest activities have increased but the harvest remains very slow overall. China has been buying for next year here but now is buying mostly in South America. US internal demand has been strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1453, 1460, and 1472 May. Support is at 1395, 1365, and 1353 May, and resistance is at 1435, 1446, and 1456 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 429.00 May. Support is at 407.00, 401.00, and 397.00 May, and resistance is at 418.00, 424.00, and 427.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5090, 5020, and 4920 May, with resistance at 5330, 5410, and 5530 May.

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: World vegetable oils prices were mixed last week with Palm Oil higher and the other markets lower. Palm Oil closed higher last week on reports of good demand from the private sources. Demand had been expected to drop off but recovered instead. Ideas of tight supplies are still around but supplies should start to seasonally increase. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields. Wet weather has caused even more delays. The weather is improved and trees seasonally increase production about now. Canola was lower on what appeared to be speculative selling tied to price action in Chicago. There were reports that the US was about to import a couple of cargoes of Soybean Oil from Argentina to break prices in both Soybean Oil and Canola. Worries about South American production are supporting both markets but the weather is better now and both are looking for new triggers to promote more buying.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 721.00, 716.00, and 708.00 May, with resistance at 762.00, 766.00, and 770.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3650, 3620, and 3500 June, with resistance at 3760, 3830, and 3930 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers over the middle of the week. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April +66 May +143 May +105 May +63 May
May +66 May +100 May +69 May
June +83 July +65 July +80 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 1
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for April 1, 2021.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 757.70 0.60 May 21 up 30.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 751.60 50.00 Jul 21 dn 16.10
Basis: Vancouver 791.60 90.00 Jul 21 dn 16.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 5
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1045.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
May 1002.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 957.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 877.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 835.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1047.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
May 1005.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 960.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 880.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 837.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1030.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 960.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4,170.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 317.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.14)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322