Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Futures were closed a little higher in reaction to the prospective plantings report. Producers told USDA they intend to plant 11.95 million actress of Cotton this year although this could change if prices rally or fall from current levels. Most likely the market will want a bigger area planted to Cotton and will rally prices. The trends turned down on the weekly charts due to the price action of last week. The chart trends are sideways on the daily charts. The demand for US Cotton in the export market has been strong even with the Coronavirus causing disruptions at the retail level around the world. The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 76.27 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 95,537 bales, from 95,537 bales yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton weekly export sales were 78,400 bales this year and 42,400 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 4,300 bales this year and o bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 7680 May. Support is at 7860, 7710, and 7660 May, with resistance of 8290, 8420 and 8620 May.
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little lower and the trends are still sideways on the daily charts. Futures have been locked in a trading range since last week. Support is showing at current price levels as futures do not appear ready to make new lows on the daily charts. The demand for FCOJ is said to be weaker as the Coronavirus has been less in the US. The weather has turned warmer so less flu is around as well. Moderate temperatures are expected for Florida this week. The weather in Florida is good with a few showers or dry weather to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Showers have fallen in Brazil, but it is dry now and crop conditions are called good even with drier than normal soils. Stress to trees could return if the dry weather continues. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 109.00, 106.00, and 104.00 May, with resistance at 114.00, 114.00, and 116.00 May.
General Comments: Futures were mixed, with New York closing higher and London closing lower. The funds appeared to be sellers in London but on both sides of the market in New York. Price action is weak in both markets but New York is now near objectives for the move. London can slide further. Cash market buyers are not buying much Coffee but offers are not strong from many origins. Vietnam producers are selling some Coffee. There are reports of good weather in Vietnam for the harvest. Indonesia has had good weather but has little coffee to sell now. Dry conditions are reported in Brazil again but crop conditions are still good. Trees might get stressed again in the dry weather continues for several more days. Central America is also drier for harvesting but production might have been reduced due to very wet conditions during the growing season. Good growing conditions are reported in Colombia and Peru. Africa is also noting good growing conditions.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.843 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 115.83 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 122.00 May. Support is at 121.00, 118.00, and 115.00 May, and resistance is at 125.00, 127.00 and 130.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1340 and 1300 May. Support is at 1330, 1320, and 1300 May, and resistance is at 1370, 1400, and 1420 May.
DJ Brazil’s Cooxupe Forecasts Its 2021 Coffee Production Will Fall to 7.5M Bags
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SÃO PAULO–Brazilian coffee cooperative Cooxupe expects the 2021 crop produced by its members to drop by almost 32% from a year earlier because of hot, dry weather last year and a normal two-year decline in productivity, according to President Carlos Augusto Rodrigues de Melo.
The cooperative’s members will grow 7.5 million 132-pound bags of arabica coffee this year, down from 11 million bags last year, Mr. Melo said.
Brazil is the world’s biggest grower of arabica coffee, and Cooxupe has the biggest production in the country.
Unusually hot and dry weather last year in parts of the state of Minas Gerais, by far the biggest grower of coffee in Brazil, hurt the development of the plants and reduced productivity for Cooxupe’s members and other growers in the state. Brazil’s arabica harvests also follow a two-year cycle in which production declines in odd-numbered years as the plants recover from the bigger output in even-numbered years.
“In normal conditions the decline in production would have been a lot smaller,” closer to 25%, Mr. Melo said.
Because of the two-year development cycle of the coffee plants, last year’s hot and dry weather will also affect the 2022 crop, though it is too early to say by how much, said Mr. Melo. He expects the 2022 crop to be about the same size as in 2020, or possibly a bit bigger.
Brazil had record production of arabica coffee in 2020 of 48.8 million bags, and also had record exports, reducing carryover stocks to low levels.
With the bigger-than-normal drop in production this year, supply will be tight and prices should remain firm, Mr. Melo said.
“There’s no surplus coffee, the relation of supply and demand, from Brazil and the world, is pretty tight,” he said, adding that Cooxupe will be able to meet demand from its customers.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on improvcd world production prospects. The chart trends are still mostly down on the daily and the weekly charts. Current Sugar demand is called average. Dry conditions were reported in Brazil. It has been raining in south central Brazil until recently and the production of cane is looking good for the next harvest. Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year and this week could be dry again. Traders are worried about a delayed Brazil harvest and lack of space at Brazil ports for Sugar shipments due to the high Soybeans shipments and delayed nature of the harvest of the Soybeans. India is exporting Sugar and is reported to have a big cane crop this year. Thailand is expecting improved production after drought induced yield losses last year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 1460, 1430, and 1400 May, and resistance is at 1500, 1530, and 1560 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 418.00 and 400.00 May. Support is at 418.00, 408.00, and 400.00 May, and resistance is at 430.00, 433.00, and 440.00 May.
General Comments: Both markets closed a little lower in consolidation trading. Chart trends are stjill down on the daily and weekly charts. New York is near recent contract lows. The main crop harvest is active in Nigeria and is spreading to Ivory Coast and Ghana. Demand should improve as the Covid vaccinations get administered and as at least some governments around the world invest in fiscal stimulus on their economies. Fears of a Coronavirus resurgence are hurting demand ideas and the vaccinations have been harder to administer in Europe lately due to citizen resistance. Production appears to be good this year and the supply surplus is growing.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are much higher today at 4.474 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2080 May. Support is at 2330, 2300, and 2250 May, with resistance at 2370, 2420, and 2440 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1680, 1640, and 1630 May. Support is at 1680, 1660, and 1630 May, with resistance at 1730, 1760, and 1800 May.
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