About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on what seemed to be speculative selling before the USDA reports coming later today and the end of the month, also today. Trends are down on the daily and the weekly charts for all three markets. The weekly export inspections report showed just an average offtake. Demand has been disappointing so far as traders had expected better exports due to problems in Russia and parts of Europe earlier in the year. Ideas are that rain that has been falling in the Great Plains will help injured Winter Wheat. Temperatures dropped below 0F in many areas a few weeks ago and that is cold enough to kill an unprotected crop. The actual damage will take some time to see under warmer temperatures and it might take until harvest to see the full effects of the recent extreme cold. Wheat conditions are improved overall after a rough start to the crop.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 600 and 578 May. Support is at 599, 592, and 580 May, with resistance at 609, 619, and 621 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 450 May. Support is at 551, 543, and 537 May, with resistance at 575, 591, and 602 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 590 May. Support is at 599, 591, and 580 May, and resistance is at 615, 620, and 622 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower along with the other agricultural markets yesterday. Funds and other speculators were sellers as traders got positions fixed before the USDA reports that will be released later today. Demand has been solid for exports but less for the mills and this remains the feature of the trade. The export demand has been primarily for paddy Rice and not for milled Rice. The cash market has not felt any increased export demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side. Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas. Asian and Mercosur markets were steady to firm last week. New crop Rice is getting planted in Texas and planting is up to half done in Louisiana. Mississippi is about to start.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1312, 1307, and 1300 May, with resistance at 1330, 1345, and 1350 May.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Mar 31
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 18.07 11.56 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 17.72 11.82 0.00
Brokens 11.46 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower on speculative selling before the USDA reports that will be released later this morning and remains locked in a sideways trend on both the daily and weekly charts. Oats were weaker. The market appears to be worried that the Corn data could be bearish today, Traders are still concerned that China might not buy more US Corn because the political talks were not productive and the South American harvest is just down the road. Chinese demand had been strong until recently and it looks like they need the Corn. Prices inside China for Corn remain extremely high. It is still raining but is drier in central and parts of northern Brazil, and farmers are able to harvest much of the Soybeans area and plant much of the Winter Corn. The Winter Corn crop is on a very slow pace to be planted and progress is well behind normal. Argentina has seen a general rain in the last week and Corn in Argentina has stabilized after losing yield to dry conditions and crop stress. Southern Brazil is also in a better place on crop conditions. More rain is in the forecast for these areas in the next week. The main crop harvest has started in parts of Brazil, but progress will be slow due to the late planting dates due too dry conditions earlier in the year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 520 and 503 May. Support is at 534, 529, and 524 May, and resistance is at 544, 548, and 554 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 362, 360, and 358 May, and resistance is at 372, 376, and 384 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were and Soybean Meal closed mixed. Soybean Oil was sharply lower to limit down. Traders were getting ready for the end of the month and the USDA reports that are all happening today. Reports on Twitter indicate that up to two shipments of Soybean Oil are on the way. Selling came on ideas that the ongoing Brazil harvest will kill current demand for US Soybeans. Demand was worse last week but the US has now sold 99% of its target amount of Soybeans for the marketing year and really has very few Soybeans left to sell. The Brazil harvest had been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems in the north as well. Harvest activities have increased but the harvest remains very slow overall. China has been buying for this year and next year here but now mostly in South America. US internal demand has also been strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1365 and 1330 May. Support is at 1357, 1337, and 1334 May, and resistance is at 1391, 1418, and 1435 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 395.00, 385.00, and 370.00 May, and resistance is at 400.00, 405.00, and 415.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 4920, 4860, and 4700 May, with resistance at 5300, 5410, and 5570 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher today on strong demand ideas as the March monthly data came in strong. Ideas of tight supplies are still around but supplies should start to seasonally increase. Private sources reported a solid export pace so far this month. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields. Wet weather has caused even more delays. The weather is improved and trees seasonally increase production about now. Canola was lower on what appeared to be speculative selling tied to price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and Palm Oil markets in Europe and Malaysia. Supplies of Canola remain tight. Worries about South American production are supporting both markets but the weather is better now and both are looking for new triggers to promote more buying.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 698.00 May. Support is at 716.00, 708.00, and 682.00 May, with resistance at 746.00, 762.00, and 770.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3390 June. Support is at 3530, 3470, and 3420 June, with resistance at 3670, 3690, and 3760 June.

Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322