About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were closed mixed as the market started to prepare for the USDA stocks and planting intentions reports that will be re4leased tomorrow morning. The weekly export sales report was strong, but not nearly as strong as the previous week. Rains in Texas were negative for prices but appeared to be mostly part of the market. The trends turned down on the weekly charts due to the price action of last week. The chart trends are down on the daily charts. The demand for US Cotton in the export market has been strong even with the Coronavirus causing disruptions at the retail level around the world. The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 75.88 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 95,537 bales, from 95,801 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 7680 May. Support is at 7710, 7660, and 7500 May, with resistance of 8110, 8290 and 8420 May.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed near unchanged and the trends are now sideways on the daily charts. Support is showing at current price levels as futures do not appear ready to make new lows on the daily charts. The demand for FCOJ is said to be weaker as the Coronvirus has been less in the US. The weather has turned warmer so less flu is around as well. Moderate temperatures are expected for Florida this week. The weather in Florida is good with a few showers or dry weather to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Showers have fallen in Brazil, but it is dry now and crop conditions are called good even with drier than normal soils. Stress to trees could return if the dry weather continues. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 109.00, 106.00, and 104.00 May, with resistance at 114.00, 116.00, and 118.00 May.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower in both markets yesterday and the price action remains weak in New York but more mixed in London. Selling came on what appeared to be fund and other speculator selling due to a stronger US Dollar. Cash market buyers are not buying much Coffee but offers are not strong from many origins. Vietnam producers are selling some Coffee. There are reports of good weather in Vietnam for the harvest. Indonesia has had good weather but has little coffee to sell now. Dry conditions are reported in Brazil again but crop conditions are still good. Trees might get stressed again in the dry weather continues for several more days. Central America is also drier for harvesting but production might have been reduced due to very wet conditions during the growing season. Good growing conditions are reported in Colombia and Peru. Africa is also noting good growing conditions.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are little changed today at 1.834 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 119.63 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 125.00, 124.00, and 121.00 May, and resistance is at 130.00, 132.00 and 135.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1360, 1330, and 1320 May, and resistance is at 1400, 1420, and 1450 May.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on the stronger US Dollar and increased Brazilian Sugar production at the expense of Ethanol. The chart trends are still mostly down on the daily and the weekly charts. The market appears to be searching for a new source of demand as current demand is called average. Dry conditions were reported in Brazil. It has been raining in south central Brazil and the production of cane is looking good for the next harvest. Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year and this week could be dry again. Traders are worried about a delayed Brazil harvest and lack of space at Brazil ports for Sugar shipments due to the high Soybeans shipments and delayed nature of the harvest of the Soybeans. India is exporting Sugar and is reported to have a big cane crop this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 1460, 1430, and 1400 May, and resistance is at 1530, 1560, and 1600 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 418.00 and 400.00 May. Support is at 427.00, 424.00, and 418.00 May, and resistance is at 440.00, 452.00, and 458.00 May.

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed lower with the biggest losses in New York. Chart trends are turning down again on the daily charts and are down on the weekly charts for New York but are more mixed in London. The main crop harvest has started in Nigeria and will soon spread to Ivory Coast and Ghana. Demand should improve as the Covid vaccinations get administered and as at least some governments around the world invest in fiscal stimulus on their economies. Fears of a Coronavirus resurgence are hurting demand ideas. Production appears to be good this year and the supply surplus is growing.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.309 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2340, 2310, and 2280 May. Support is at 2420, 2370, and 2340 May, with resistance at 2510, 2560, and 2630 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1710, 1680, and 1660 May, with resistance at 1760, 1800, and 1820 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322