Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were a little higher but Minneapolis was a little lower. Trends are down on the daily and the weekly charts for all three markets. Speculators appeared to be on both sides of the market ahead of the USDA stocks in all positions report and planting intentions report to be released tomorrow morning. The weekly export inspections report showed just an average offtake. Demand has been disappointing so far as traders had expected better exports due to problems in Russia and parts of Europe earlier in the year. Ideas are that rain that is falling in the Great Plains will help injured Winter Wheat. Temperatures dropped below 0F in many areas a few weeks ago and that is cold enough to kill an unprotected crop. The actual damage will take some time to see under warmer temperatures and it might take until harvest to see the full effects of the recent extreme cold.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 600 and 578 May. Support is at 607, 599, and 592 May, with resistance at 621, 631, and 644 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 450 May. Support is at 558, 551, and 543 May, with resistance at 575, 591, and 602 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 608, 601, and 590 May. Support is at 605, 599, and 591 May, and resistance is at 622, 630, and 637 May.
General Comments: Rice was higher in moderate volume trading with ideas that commercials were buying again. Demand has been solid for exports but less for the mills and this remains the feature of the trade. The export demand has been primarily for paddy Rice and not for milled Rice. The cash market has not felt any increased export demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side. Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas. Asian and Mercosur markets were steady to firm last week. New crop Rice is getting planted in Texas and planting is up to half done in Louisiana. Mississippi is about to start.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1319, 1300, and 1290 May, with resistance at 1345, 1350, and 1355 May.
CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower on speculative selling before the USDA reports on Wednesday and remains locked in a sideways trend on both the daily and weekly charts. Oats were firmer. The market appears to be worried that the Corn data could be bearish tomorrow., Traders are still concerned that China might not buy more US Corn because the political talks were not productive and the South American harvest is just down the road. Chinese demand had been strong until recently and it looks like they need the Corn. Prices inside China for Corn remain extremely high. It is still raining but is drier in central and parts of northern Brazil, and farmers are able to harvest much of the Soybeans area and plant much of the Winter Corn. The Winter Corn crop is on a very slow pace to be planted and progress is well behind normal. Argentina has seen a general rain in the last week and Corn in Argentina has stabilized after losing yield to dry conditions and crop stress. Southern Brazil is also in a better place on crop conditions. More rain is in the forecast for these areas in the next week. The main crop harvest has started in parts of Brazil, but progress will be slow due to the late planting dates due too dry conditions earlier in the year.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 100,800 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 540, 531, and 529 May, and resistance is at 559, 568, and 572 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 397 May. Support is at 369, 362 and 360 May, and resistance is at 384, 386, and 387 May.
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower but Soybean Oil was higher and held Friday’s low. Reports n Twitter indicate that up to two shipments of Soybean Oil are on the way. Traders were getting ready for the USD reports that will be released tomorrow and were showing some concern that the data could turn out bearish. Selling came on ideas that the ongoing Brazil harvest will kill current demand for US Soybeans. Demand was worse last week but the US has now sold 99% of its target amount of Soybeans for the marketing year and really has very few Soybeans left to sell. The Brazil harvest had been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems in the north as well. Harvest activities have increased but the harvest remains very slow overall. China has been buying for this year and next year here but now mostly in South America. US internal demand has also been strong.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1370, 1368, and 1353 May, and resistance is at 1418, 1435, and 1446 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 395.00, 385.00, and 370.00 May, and resistance is at 410.00, 415.00, and 418.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3090 May. Support is at 5200, 5060, and 4920 May, with resistance at 5410, 5570, and 5630 May.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower last week on weakness in other oilseeds. Futures were higher today on strong demand ideas. Ideas of tight supplies are still around but supplies should start to seasonally increase. Private sources reported a solid export pace so far this month. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields. Wet weather has caused even more delays. The weather is improved and trees seasonally increase production about now. Canola was higher on what appeared to be speculative buying tied to price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and Palm Oil markets in Europe and Malaysia. Supplies of Canola remain tight. Worries about South American production are supporting both markets but the weather is better now and both are looking for new triggers to promote more buying.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 738.00 and 698.00 May. Support is at 742.00, 732.00, and 726.00 May, with resistance at 771.00, 781.00, and 793.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3770, 3630, and 3600 June, with resistance at 3970, 4010, and 4060 June.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.