Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Rice was lower and gave back more than the gains of the previous day. Futures basically repeated the format of the last rally attempt only to fail the next day. The export sales report was strong but half of the previous volume. The cash market has not felt any increased export demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side. Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas. Asian and Mercosur markets were steady to firm last week. New crop Rice is getting planted in Texas and planting is up to half done in Louisiana. Mississippi is about to start.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers on Sunday. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1300, 1290, and 1283 May, with resistance at 1345, 1350, and 1355 May.
CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday but mostly in sympathy with the selloff in Soybeans and Wheat. Traders are still concerned that China might not buy more US Corn because the talks over the weekend between China and the US were not real positive. The country bought about 4.0 million tons of US Corn last week, but the weekly export sales report showed less sold to other destinations. Chinese demand had been strong until recently and it looks like they need the Corn. Prices inside China for Corn remain extremely high. It is still raining but is drier in central and parts of northern Brazil, and farmers are able to harvest much of the Soybeans area and plant much of the Winter Corn. The Winter Corn crop is on a very slow pace to be planted and progress is well behind normal. Argentina has seen a general rain in the last week and Corn in Argentina has stabilized after losing yield to dry conditions and crop stress. Southern Brazil is also in a better place on crop conditions. More rain is in the forecast for these areas in the next week. The main crop harvest has started in parts of Brazil, but progress will be slow due to the late planting dates due too dry conditions earlier in the year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 540, 531, and 529 May, and resistance is at 553, 559, and 568 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 397 May. Support is at 369, 362 and 360 May, and resistance is at 384, 386, and 387 May.
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed lower on weaker than expected export sales and the stronger US Dollar. Soybean Meal closed a little higher on spreads against Soybean Oil. Selling came on ideas that the ongoing Brazil harvest will kill current demand for US Soybeans. Demand was worse at just over 100,000 tons for Soybeans last week in the weekly export data but the US has now sold 99% of its target amount of Soybeans for the marketing year and really has very few Soybeans left to sell. The Brazil harvest had been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems in the north as well. Harvest activities have increased but the harvest remains very slow overall. China has been buying for this year and next year here but now mostly in South America. US internal demand has also been strong.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1390, 1374, and 1368 May, and resistance is at 1435, 1446, and 1460 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 395.00, 385.00, and 370.00 May, and resistance is at 410.00, 415.00, and 418.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5410, 5330, and 5290 May, with resistance at 5650, 5820, and 5840 May.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower today on weakness in other oilseeds. Ideas of tight supplies are still around but supplies should start to seasonally increase. Futures were higher today on the solid export pace so far this month. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields. Wet weather has caused even more delays. The weather is improved and trees seasonally increase production about now. Export demand has been less for the last couple of months. Canola was lower on what appeared to be speculative selling tied to price action in Chicago. Worries about South American production are supporting both markets but the weather is better now and both are looking for new triggers to promote more buying.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 770.00, 765.00, and 746.00 May, with resistance at 796.00, 806.00, and 820.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3580 June. Support is at 3760, 3630, and 3600 June, with resistance at 4010, 4060, and 4120 June.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Rains off and on into next week. Temperatures should average near normal.
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were lower with Chicago SRW once again the weakest market. Speculators appeared to be the best sellers and sold on reports of some rains in Texas and a stronger US Dollar. Demand has been disappointing so far as traders had expected better exports due to problems in Russia and parts of Europe earlier in the year. Ideas are that rain that is falling in the Great Plains will help injured Winter Wheat. Temperatures dropped below 0F in many areas a few weeks ago and that is cold enough to kill an unprotected crop. The actual damage will take some time to see under warmer temperatures and it might take until harvest to see the full effects of the recent extreme cold.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 600 and 578 May. Support is at 600, 599, and 592 May, with resistance at 621, 631, and 644 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 563 and 450 May. Support is at 560, 551, and 543 May, with resistance at 575, 591, and 602 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 608, 601, and 590 May. Support is at 615, 610, and 605 May, and resistance is at 622, 630, and 637 May.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322