Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Futures were a little lower in consolidation trading. The chart trends are down on the daily charts. The US Dollar was stronger and hurt demand ideas. The weekly export sales report showed solid Cotton demand. The demand for US Cotton in the export market has been strong even with the Coronavirus and the strong demand could continue as USDA also cut Brazil production due to reduced planted area this year. The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers in Tuesday and Wednesday, otherwise mostly dry conditions and near to below temperatures. The USDA average price is now 80.01 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 99,239 bales, from 99,239 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 8250, 8000, and 7980 May. Support is at 8360, 8290, and 8100 May, with resistance of 8620, 8740 and 8820 May.
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little lower in consolidation trading. The tone of the market is mixed on the daily charts but the weekly charts are still showing a completed bottom formation. Moderate temperatures are expected for Florida this week. The weather in Florida is good with a few showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Showers are falling in Brazil now and crop conditions are called good even with drier than normal soils. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted today for March delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 113.00, 111.00, and 109.00 May, with resistance at 120.00, 122.00, and 124.00 May.
General Comments: Futures were higher in both markets on what appeared to be fund and other speculator selling against commercial buying. Cash market buyers are not buying that much Coffee these days. Vietnam producers have not sold since the Tet holiday but are expected to start selling soon. There are reports of good weather in Vietnam for the harvest. Indonesia has had good weather but has little coffee to sell now. Rains have been falling in Brazil that should be very beneficial for the next crop. Central America is also drier for harvesting but production might have been reduced due to very wet conditions during the growing season. Good growing conditions are reported in Colombia and Peru. Africa is also noting good growing conditions.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 1.840 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 120.36 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Dry conditions return for Sunday. Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 525 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 127.00, 124.00, and 121.00 May, and resistance is at 132.00, 135.00 and 137.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1360, 1330, and 1320 May, and resistance is at 1400, 1420, and 1450 May.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on follow through selling tied to a weaker Brazilian Real and good Brazilian growing conditions. The chart trends are mostly down on the daily and the weekly charts. The market appears to be searching for a new source of demand to complement the traditional buying. Reports indicate that industrial users of Sugar have been the most active consumers. Rains were reported again in Brazil. It has been raining in south central Brazil and the production of cane is making solid for the next harvest. Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year. India is producing less Sugar and more Ethanol but is reported to have a big cane crop this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1550, 1540, and 1530 May. Support is at 1550, 1530, and 1460 May, and resistance is at 1600, 1620, and 1650 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 446.00, 440.00, and 427.00 May, and resistance is at 458.00, 468.00, and 477.00 May.
General Comments: New York closed mixed to higher and London closed a little lower in consolidation trading. The main crop harvest has started in Nigeria and will soon spread to Ivory Coast and Ghana. Demand should improve as the Covid vaccinations get administered and as at least some governments around the world invest in fiscal stimulus on their economies. Production appears to be good this year and the supply surplus is growing.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.155 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2470, 2450, and 2340 May. Support is at 2460, 2430, and 2240 May, with resistance at 2510, 2560, and 2620 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1720, 1680, and 1660 May, with resistance at 1770, 1800, and 1820 May.