About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were mostly a little lower but SRW closed a little higher. Speculators appeared to be the best buyers. It has been a demand market and the export demand has not been good. The weekly charts still show down trends in HRW and SRW. Minneapolis trends are turning down. Demand has been disappointing so far as traders had expected better exports due to problems in Russia and parts of Europe earlier in the year. Ideas are that rain and snow that is falling in the Great Plains will help injured Winter Wheat. Temperatures dropped below 0F in many areas a few weeks ago and that is cold enough to kill an unprotected crop. The actual damage will take some time to see under warmer temperatures and it might take until harvest to see the full effects of the recent extreme cold.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions except for some precipitation on Sunday. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 622 and 605 May. Support is at 622, 616, and 608 May, with resistance at 639, 649, and 658 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 563 and 450 May. Support is at 574, 560, and 551 May, with resistance at 591, 602, and 610 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 601 May. Support is at 620, 615, and 610 May, and resistance is at 632, 640, and 644 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher in light volume trading. Commercial buying went against some fund and other speculator selling. Export demand has been good and the market got another good weekly export sales report last week. The cash market has not felt any increased export demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side. Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas. Asian and Mercosur markets were steady to firm last week New crop Rice is getting planted in Texas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1300, 1293, and 1290 May, with resistance at 1325, 1335, and 1340 May.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday as there was no talk of additional Chinese business. Traders are afraid that China might not buy more US Corn because the talks over the weekend between China and the US were not real positive. The country bought about 4.0 million tons of US Corn last week. Reports of Asian Swine Fever in China hurt speculative Corn buying as well. Chinese demand had been strong until recently and it looks like they need the Corn either way. Prices inside China for Corn remain extremely high. It is still raining in central and parts of northern Brazil, but farmers were still able to harvest some of the Soybeans area and plant some of the Winter Corn around the precipitation. The Winter Corn crop is on a very slow pace to be planted and progress is well behind normal. Argentina has seen a general rain in the last week and Corn in Argentina has stabilized after losing yield to dry conditions and crop stress. Southern Brazil is also in a better place on crop conditions. The main crop harvest has started in parts of Brazil, but progress will be slow due to the late planting dates due too dry conditions earlier in the year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 546, 540, and 531 May, and resistance is at 559, 568, and 577 May. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 360, 355 and 351 May, and resistance is at 372, 377, and 381 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed a little higher and Soybean Meal closed lower. Soybean Oil closed sharply higher and the Meal-Oil spread moved around a lot yesterday. Weekly chart trends are still sideways for Soybeans and are still down in Soybean Meal. Selling came on ideas that the ongoing Brazil harvest will kill current demand for US Soybeans. Demand was worse last week in the weekly export data but the US has now sold 99% of its target amount of Soybeans for the marketing year and really has very few Soybeans left to sell. The Brazil harvest had been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems in the north as well. Harvest activities have increased but the harvest remains very slow overall. China has been buying for this year and next year here but now mostly in South America. US internal demand has also been strong as seen in the crush data.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1390, 1374, and 1368 May, and resistance is at 1425, 1432, and 1446 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 395.00, 385.00, and 370.00 May, and resistance is at 410.00, 415.00, and 418.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 5660 and 5950 May. Support is at 5560, 5410, and 5330 May, with resistance at 5660, 5720, and 5780 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower last week and gave back its up trend. Ideas of tight supplies are still around but supplies should start to seasonally increase. Futures were higher today on the solid export pace sp far this month. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields. Wet weather has caused even more delays. The weather is improved and trees seasonally increase production about now. Export demand has been less for the last couple of months. Canola was higher on what appeared to be speculative and commercial buying. Chicago Soybean Oil rallied sharply and supported Canola price action. Worries about South American production are supporting both markets but both are looking for new triggers to promote more buying.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 778.00, 770.00, and 765.00 May, with resistance at 795.00, 801.00, and 804.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3580 June. Support is at 3760, 3670, and 3660 June, with resistance at 3910, 3940, and 4060 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Rains off and on all week. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March +76 May +140 May +104 May +60 May
April +74 May +100 May +62 May
May +67 May +100 May +68 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 22
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 773.80 -2.40 May 2021 up 22.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 793.70 50.00 Jul 2021 up 16.60
Basis: Vancouver 833.70 90.00 Jul 2021 up 16.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 23
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1082.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
May 1052.50 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1012.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 940.00 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 870.00 +22.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1085.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
May 1055.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1015.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 942.50 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 872.50 +22.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1070.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 990.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4,260.00 +110.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 330.00 +04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.12)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 23
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 174,188 lots, or 10.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-21 5,696 5,814 5,646 5,787 5,711 5,751 40 155,646 85,829
Jul-21 5,689 5,836 5,689 5,812 5,747 5,791 44 4,507 5,396
Sep-21 5,694 5,775 5,649 5,773 5,713 5,728 15 11,245 16,402
Nov-21 5,631 5,694 5,631 5,667 5,645 5,670 25 2,511 5,978
Jan-22 5,559 5,645 5,556 5,632 5,588 5,610 22 267 4,634
Mar-22 5,577 5,600 5,577 5,600 5,544 5,590 46 12 74
Corn
Turnover: 575,458 lots, or 15.56 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-21 2,725 2,727 2,713 2,719 2,718 2,718 0 296,056 552,622
Jul-21 2,730 2,730 2,715 2,720 2,720 2,719 -1 89,675 115,242
Sep-21 2,695 2,697 2,680 2,686 2,687 2,686 -1 110,970 347,445
Nov-21 2,672 2,673 2,653 2,657 2,661 2,658 -3 66,250 97,549
Jan-22 2,660 2,661 2,642 2,644 2,657 2,649 -8 4,940 23,627
Mar-22 2,652 2,652 2,633 2,635 2,643 2,643 0 7,567 8,544
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,887,547 lots, or 61.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-21 3,279 3,280 3,210 3,257 3,270 3,237 -33 920,471 775,246
Jul-21 3,292 3,292 3,223 3,268 3,281 3,250 -31 107,782 175,526
Aug-21 3,375 3,375 3,305 3,350 3,362 3,335 -27 47,619 16,937
Sep-21 3,367 3,369 3,297 3,349 3,361 3,330 -31 734,091 1,190,772
Nov-21 3,354 3,354 3,287 3,324 3,336 3,313 -23 16,742 5,780
Dec-21 3,300 3,301 3,290 3,290 3,322 3,296 -26 5 334
Jan-22 3,275 3,275 3,229 3,257 3,270 3,249 -21 55,651 111,005
Mar-22 3,223 3,223 3,182 3,186 3,216 3,195 -21 5,186 9,792
Palm Oil
Turnover: 906,233 lots, or 71.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-21 8,382 8,382 8,256 8,256 7,984 8,288 304 10 729
May-21 7,864 8,302 7,864 8,108 7,744 8,046 302 705,038 331,113
Jun-21 7,596 8,028 7,596 7,828 7,508 7,814 306 3,363 2,934
Jul-21 7,398 7,766 7,390 7,626 7,300 7,544 244 25 1,421
Aug-21 – – – 7,338 7,156 7,338 182 0 387
Sep-21 7,084 7,490 7,082 7,320 6,976 7,262 286 176,634 126,480
Oct-21 6,926 7,360 6,926 7,186 6,858 7,162 304 14,513 34,361
Nov-21 6,898 7,278 6,898 7,114 6,790 7,108 318 1,733 3,933
Dec-21 6,870 7,128 6,852 6,992 6,698 6,994 296 415 2,002
Jan-22 6,630 6,972 6,630 6,842 6,556 6,796 240 4,468 7,497
Feb-22 6,632 6,780 6,622 6,740 6,520 6,670 150 16 13
Mar-22 6,686 6,768 6,602 6,660 6,536 6,666 130 18 14
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,124,258 lots, or 10.12 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-21 8,984 9,468 8,982 9,238 8,938 9,208 270 811,741 364,023
Jul-21 8,498 8,950 8,484 8,774 8,420 8,718 298 5,836 12,243
Aug-21 8,380 8,732 8,344 8,580 8,262 8,548 286 5,443 2,086
Sep-21 8,220 8,674 8,218 8,510 8,166 8,466 300 263,728 278,015
Nov-21 8,098 8,520 8,086 8,344 8,024 8,292 268 23,776 37,501
Dec-21 8,030 8,366 8,030 8,258 7,954 8,228 274 6,887 6,202
Jan-22 7,956 8,374 7,944 8,168 7,882 8,164 282 6,844 12,225
Mar-22 8,180 8,180 8,048 8,134 7,840 8,120 280 3 12
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322