Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Futures were lower on fund and other speculator selling due to a stronger US Dollar and as some beneficial rains feel in the southern US. The chart trends are mixed on the daily charts. Rains in some of the Texas growing areas have improved planting conditions and initial growth ideas are strong. The passage of the Covid 19 stimulus package by Congress weakened the US Dollar and helped promote better demand ideas. USDA cut ending stocks slightly by cutting production and also domestic demand. USDA said that the domestic industry was slow to rebound after the Coronavirus kept many at home. The demand for US Cotton in the export market has been strong even with the Coronavirus and the strong demand could continue as USDA also cut Brazil production due to reduced planted area this year. The US Dollar has started to firm recently and could be hurting demand. The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products.
Overnight News: The Delta will get dry conditions and above normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to below temperatures. The USDA average price is now 80.84 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 99,706 bales, from 99,706 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 8460, 8380, and 8300 May, with resistance of 8740, 8820 and 9000 May.
DJ On-Call Cotton – Mar 18
As of Mar 12. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Mar 21 1 101 -100 1 1 0
May 21 18,829 22,453 -3,624 5,013 5,823 -810
Jul 21 34,072 33,946 126 4,217 4,756 -539
Oct 21 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 21 25,604 23,522 2,082 24,267 23,977 290
Mar 22 7,196 5,963 1,233 1,942 1,882 60
May 22 3,198 2,451 747 647 647 0
Jul 22 7,997 6,578 1,419 1,611 1,611 0
Dec 22 4,108 3,387 721 6,496 6,237 259
Mar 23 776 176 600 0 0 0
May 23 18 18 0 0 0 0
Jul 23 18 18 0 220 220 0
Dec 23 0 0 0 227 227 0
Jul 24 0 0 0 441 441 0
Total 101,817 98,613 3,204 45,082 45,822 -740
Open Open Change
Mar 21 0 0 0
May 21 99,305 105,391 -6,086
Jul 21 52,290 56,098 -3,808
Oct 21 18 18 0
Dec 21 65,557 60,928 4,629
Mar 22 7,252 6,656 596
May 22 1,321 1,188 133
Jul 22 3,252 3,142 110
Dec 22 4,300 4,254 46
Mar 23 0 0 0
May 23 0 0 0
Jul 23 1 1 0
Dec 23 0 0 0
Jul 24 0 0 0
Total 233,296 237,676 -4,380
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher in recovery trading. The weekly charts are still showing a completed bottom formation. Moderate temperatures are expected for Florida this week. The weather in Florida is good with a few showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Showers are falling in Brazil now and crop conditions are called good even with drier than normal soils. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal, then below normal early next week. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted today for March delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 122.00, 128.00, and 130.00 May. Support is at 113.00, 111.00, and 109.00 May, with resistance at 120.00, 122.00, and 124.00 May.
General Comments: Futures were lower in both markets on what appeared to be fund and other speculator selling based on the stronger US Dollar. New York charts appear ready to turn its trends down after the price action yesterday. London is still more of a sideways pattern. Cash market buyers are not buying that much Coffee these days. Vietnam producers have not sold since the Tet holiday but are expected to start selling soon. There are reports of good weather in Vietnam for the harvest. Indonesia has had good weather but has little coffee to sell now. Brazil was dry for flowering and initial fruit development. Rains have been falling that should be very beneficial. Central America is also drier for harvesting but production might have been reduced due to very wet conditions during the growing season. Good growing conditions are reported in Colombia and Peru. Africa is also noting good growing conditions.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.840 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 120.39 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Dry conditions return for Sunday. Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions. ICE said that 7 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 524 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 127.00, 124.00, and 121.00 May, and resistance is at 132.00, 135.00 and 137.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1380, 1360, and 1330 May, and resistance is at 1420, 1450, and 1460 May.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on a weaker Brazilian Real and good Brazilian growing conditions. The US Dollar turned higher and helped create some selling from the funds and other speculators. The chart trends are mostly down on the daily and the weekly charts. The market appears to be searching for a new source of demand to complement the traditional buying. Reports indicate that industrial users of Sugar have been the most active consumers. Rains were reported again in Brazil. It has been raining in south central Brazil and the production of cane is looking solid for the next harvest. Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year. India is producing less Sugar and more Ethanol.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers, then dry conditions on Sunday. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1550, 1540, and 1530 May. Support is at 1550, 1530, and 1460 May, and resistance is at 1610, 1630, and 1650 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 451.00, 446.00, and 440.00 May, and resistance is at 468.00, 477.00, and 485.00 May.
General Comments: New York and London both closed higher and chart patterns now look sideways. Futures seem to be factoring in the large supply against weaker demand at this time. The main crop harvest has started in Nigeria and will soon spread to Ivory Coast and Ghana. Demand should improve as the Covid vaccinations get administered and as at least some governments around the world invest in fiscal stimulus on their economies. Production appears to be good this year and the supply surplus is growing.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.120 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2530, 2510, and 2470 May, with resistance at 2570, 2630, and 2670 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1720, 1680, and 1660 May, with resistance at 1770, 1800, and 1820 May.