About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on fund and other speculator selling tied in part to the stronger US Dollar. It has been a demand market and the export demand has not been good.. The weekly charts still show down trends in HRW and SRW. Minneapolis trends are still mixed. Demand has been disappointing so far as traders had expected better exports due to problems in Russia and parts of Europe earlier in the year. Ideas are that rain and snow that is falling in the Great Plains will help injured Winter Wheat. Temperatures dropped below 0F in many areas and that is cold enough to kill an unprotected crop. The actual damage will take some time to see under warmer temperatures and it might take until harvest to see the full effects of the recent extreme cold.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions except for some precipitation on Sunday. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 622 and 605 May. Support is at 622, 616, and 608 May, with resistance at 639, 649, and 658 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 563 and 450 May. Support is at 579 574, and 560 May, with resistance at 602, 610, and 620 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 623 and 601 May. Support is at 620, 615, and 610 May, and resistance is at 632, 640, and 644 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower as the US Dollar moved higher. Selling developed after the strong export sales report as futures had rallied into the report yesterday. Futures are searching for news again to ignite another rally or to prompt further selling. The cash market has not felt any increased export demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side. Exports were moderate last week. Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas. Asian and Mercosur markets were steady to firm last week.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1293, 1290, and 1283 May, with resistance at 1321, 1325, and 1335 May.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower on what appeared to be fund and other speculator selling tied to a stronger US Dollar. The demand news yesterday should have been positive for prices as the weekly export sales report showed sales above trade expectations. China bought another 646,000 tons of US Corn yesterday and has now bought more than 3 million tons for the week. New crop months were lower on spreads against the old crop and on ideas of a big planted area this year. Prices inside China for Corn remain extremely high. It is still raining in central and parts of northern Brazil, but farmers were still able to harvest some of the Soybeans area and plant some of the Winter Corn around the precipitation. The Winter Corn crop is on a very slow pace to be planted and progress is well behind normal. Argentina and southern Brazil got beneficial rains to stabilized crop conditions in both areas. The main crop harvest has started in parts of Brazil, but progress will be slow due to the late planting dates due too dry conditions earlier in the year. The second crop of Corn planting is also being delayed and yield estimates for South American Corn have been reduced.
Overnight News: China b ought 800,000 tons of UYS Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 546, 540, and 531 May, and resistance is at 552, 559, and 568 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 360, 355 and 351 May, and resistance is at 373, 377, and 381 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower on ideas of weakening demand and as funds and other speculators sold in part on the stronger US Dollar. US export sales were diminished once again yesterday as the business moves more and more to South America. Brazil is charging less for Soybeans in FOB terms and most of the export business is there or in Argentina. Prices are expected to hold generally firm as the US has very few if any Soybeans left to sell. Weekly chart trends are still sideways for Soybeans but are down in Soybean Meal. Demand was improved last week in the weekly export data and the US has now sold 99% of its target amount of Soybeans for the marketing year. The Brazil harvest has been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems in the north as well. Rains are coming to an end in some areas so harvest activities have increased but the harvest remains very slow overall. China has been buying for this year and next year here but now mostly in South America. US internal demand has also been strong as seen in the crush data.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1374, 1368, and 1352 May, and resistance is at 1413, 1425, and 1432 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 396.00 and 368.00 May. Support is at 395.00, 385.00, and 377.00 May, and resistance is at 405.00, 411.00, and 415.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 5260 and 5090 May. Support is at 5290, 5060, and 4990 May, with resistance at 5540, 5560, and 5600 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower on weaker outside markets. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields. Wet weather has caused even more delays. The weather is improved and trees seasonally increase production about now. Canola closed lower as the speculative long liquidation continued and some new selling entered the picture. Canola still got talk of tight supplies due to reduced offers from farmers and reduced production earlier in the year. Worries about South American production coming to market were negative.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 748.00 May. Support is at 748.00, 742.00, and 733.00 May, with resistance at 771.00, 786.00, and 795.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3740 and 3580 June. Support is at 3690, 3660, and 3550 June, with resistance at 3910, 3970, and 4060 June.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Mar 18
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary
statistics for the week ended March 14, 2021. Figures in thousands of
metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2955.1 729.8 329.1 520.3 53.4 1655.8 418.8 167.7 7411.1
Week Ago 2822.2 781.9 319.7 523.1 59.3 1752.7 456.1 162.9 7485.7
Year Ago 3146.7 711.2 378.1 397.3 45.2 1489.1 382.6 94.5 7254.9
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 494.9 139.5 51.7 121.4 7.4 428.6 71.1 15.0 1388.3
Week Ago 545.9 136.3 35.6 98.2 8.7 431.2 79.6 10.9 1394.2
To Date 13967.1 4032.9 1952.9 3444.7 361.0 14281.6 2940.8 257.6 44201.4
Year Ago 12979.5 3004.0 1890.8 2602.1 196.1 12570.7 2643.9 242.2 38568.2
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 381.8 106.5 15.6 68.8 0.0 183.9 59.3 35.6 900.8
Week Ago 354.5 134.0 2.1 56.6 10.8 265.7 29.4 29.8 938.2
To Date 13804.3 4403.9 495.2 2321.9 179.3 8037.2 1939.1 714.8 37205.9
Year Ago 10761.7 3494.8 334.8 1366.7 72.4 6519.4 1576.8 129.3 28187.5
EXPORTS
This Week 351.2 126.3 40.6 93.6 25.4 304.5 84.7 0.0 1058.2
Week Ago 397.0 168.5 12.6 62.5 8.8 254.4 0.2 28.9 984.6
To Date 12118.2 3722.3 1297.4 2490.5 242.4 7550.9 1950.1 549.1 34096.2
Year Ago 9376.6 2960.4 1062.0 1425.4 101.6 5778.1 1591.4 12.5 25331.2
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 60.7 16.9 15.7 22.0 0.7 199.1 3.0 12.0 351.8
Week Ago 39.8 15.3 10.2 21.8 1.1 206.7 3.3 14.3 338.3
To Date 2511.3 354.6 478.0 674.1 38.1 6569.0 119.8 504.9 12365.0
Year Ago 2433.6 230.0 440.3 1007.5 29.9 6405.1 144.9 392.1 12148.2
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-
9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry or just light precipitation after some big rains today. More rain early net week. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March +77 May +140 May +104 May +63 May
April +74 May +100 May +65 May
May +66 May +100 May +69 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 18
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 774.30 -5.00 May 2021 dn 16.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 760.40 50.00 July 2021 dn 21.20
Basis: Vancouver 800.40 90.00 July 2021 dn 21.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1027.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Apr 1027.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
May 992.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 972.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 890.00 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 822.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1030.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Apr 1030.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
May 995.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 975.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 892.50 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 825.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1020.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 950.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4,050.00 -80.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 325.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.106)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 259,729 lots, or 1.48 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-21 5,654 5,772 5,618 5,683 5,726 5,706 -20 229,989 89,533
Jul-21 5,675 5,796 5,673 5,709 5,736 5,744 8 3,566 5,286
Sep-21 5,700 5,777 5,644 5,694 5,753 5,714 -39 25,009 16,260
Nov-21 5,601 5,665 5,566 5,602 5,649 5,617 -32 700 5,919
Jan-22 5,546 5,594 5,503 5,533 5,563 5,534 -29 451 4,505
Mar-22 5,473 5,500 5,473 5,498 5,513 5,489 -24 14 67
Corn
Turnover: 619,544 lots, or 16.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-21 2,695 2,713 2,686 2,706 2,695 2,699 4 366,892 595,853
Jul-21 2,693 2,711 2,688 2,706 2,695 2,697 2 85,207 113,541
Sep-21 2,671 2,678 2,663 2,671 2,669 2,669 0 107,745 346,714
Nov-21 2,649 2,655 2,641 2,649 2,647 2,648 1 47,212 98,816
Jan-22 2,641 2,648 2,632 2,640 2,641 2,639 -2 5,130 22,733
Mar-22 2,638 2,648 2,627 2,631 2,635 2,635 0 7,358 8,414
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,780,321 lots, or 58.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-21 3,236 3,258 3,207 3,243 3,251 3,235 -16 908,772 842,392
Jul-21 3,250 3,263 3,213 3,252 3,255 3,240 -15 99,639 164,284
Aug-21 3,334 3,348 3,300 3,339 3,329 3,328 -1 51,645 16,298
Sep-21 3,326 3,346 3,300 3,331 3,332 3,324 -8 646,967 1,115,943
Nov-21 3,308 3,322 3,281 3,312 3,309 3,302 -7 15,803 4,576
Dec-21 3,305 3,315 3,272 3,306 3,304 3,291 -13 21 337
Jan-22 3,262 3,273 3,224 3,256 3,260 3,248 -12 55,717 107,369
Mar-22 3,208 3,211 3,177 3,206 3,212 3,193 -19 1,757 9,371
Palm Oil
Turnover: 812,415 lots, or 61.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-21 8,084 8,084 7,902 7,902 8,084 8,016 -68 50 835
May-21 7,738 7,780 7,594 7,654 7,776 7,680 -96 663,704 308,373
Jun-21 7,526 7,556 7,400 7,446 7,586 7,474 -112 3,911 2,872
Jul-21 7,292 7,298 7,186 7,186 7,376 7,234 -142 15 1,423
Aug-21 7,156 7,156 7,156 7,156 7,200 7,156 -44 1 387
Sep-21 6,980 7,012 6,860 6,908 7,064 6,932 -132 127,174 123,857
Oct-21 6,900 6,900 6,740 6,792 6,924 6,792 -132 13,565 30,965
Nov-21 6,808 6,820 6,680 6,728 6,878 6,738 -140 1,516 3,800
Dec-21 6,708 6,732 6,572 6,636 6,782 6,642 -140 501 1,906
Jan-22 6,602 6,602 6,430 6,496 6,622 6,490 -132 1,961 7,504
Feb-22 6,522 6,566 6,302 6,456 6,568 6,456 -112 5 20
Mar-22 6,546 6,546 6,390 6,462 6,562 6,474 -88 12 26
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,043,299 lots, or 91.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-21 9,026 9,060 8,840 8,862 9,108 8,944 -164 798,330 387,109
Jul-21 8,498 8,514 8,314 8,342 8,596 8,412 -184 5,989 12,198
Aug-21 8,352 8,352 8,138 8,192 8,428 8,204 -224 2,760 2,183
Sep-21 8,240 8,258 8,052 8,082 8,342 8,138 -204 215,828 270,318
Nov-21 8,120 8,120 7,908 7,938 8,188 7,980 -208 14,117 35,631
Dec-21 8,022 8,022 7,834 7,874 8,126 7,904 -222 2,336 5,930
Jan-22 7,966 7,972 7,770 7,800 8,052 7,852 -200 3,931 12,797
Mar-22 7,896 7,896 7,734 7,734 7,914 7,840 -74 8 11
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322