About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were unchanged to higher but Minneapolis Spring Wheat closed a little lower. Trading was quiet in all markets yesterday. The weekly charts still show down trends in HRW and SRW. Minneapolis trends are still mixed. Ideas are that rain and snow that is falling in the Great Plains will help injured Winter Wheat. The threat of Winterkill production losses in the western Great Plains now appears to be part of the price. Temperatures dropped below 0F in many areas and that is cold enough to kill an unprotected crop. The actual damage will take some time to see under warmer temperatures and it might take until harvest to see the full effects of the recent extreme cold.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 644 and 632 May. Support is at 632, 626, and 608 May, with resistance at 658, 663, and 669 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 589 and 563 May. Support is at 600, 591, and 579 May, with resistance at 620, 623, and 628 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 629, 620, and 605 May, and resistance is at 644, 652, and 659 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was mostly a little higher in very light volume trading. Futures are searching for news to ignite another rally or to prompt further selling. The cash market has not felt any increased export demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side. Exports were moderate last week. Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas. Asian and Mercosur markets were steady to firm last week.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1301, 1293, and 1290 May, with resistance at 1317, 1321, and 1325 May.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Mar 17
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 17.84 11.41 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 17.46 11.66 0.00
Brokens 11.32 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher in old crop months on ideas of good demand. New crop months were lower on spreads against the old crop and on ideas of a big planted area this year. Reports of Asian Swine Fever in China are still around but China bought 1.148 million tons of Corn this week. Chinese demand had been strong until recently and it looks like they need the Corn either way. Prices inside China for Corn remain extremely high. It is still raining in central and parts of northern Brazil, but farmers were still able to harvest some of the Soybeans area and plant some of the Winter Corn around the precipitation. The Winter Corn crop is on a very slow pace to be planted and progress is well behind normal. Argentina and southern Brazil got beneficial rains to stabilized crop conditions in both areas. Southern Brazil got dry conditions but is also expecting beneficial rains later this week. The main crop harvest has started in parts of Brazil, but progress will be slow due to the late planting dates due too dry conditions earlier in the year. The second crop of Corn planting is also being delayed and yield estimates for South American Corn have been reduced.
Overnight News: China bought 1.224 million tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 546, 540, and 531 May, and resistance is at 556, 559, and 568 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 367, 360 and 355 May, and resistance is at 377, 382, and 387 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed slightly higher in old crops months but lower in new crop months and Soybean Meal closed a little lower. Soybean Oil was unchanged to lower. Weekly chart trends are still sideways for Soybeans but are down in Soybean Meal. The buying came on ideas of very tight supplies. Selling came on ideas that the impending Brazil harvest will kill current demand for US Soybeans. New crop selling came on ideas of a big planted area for Soybeans this year. Demand was improved last week in the weekly export data and the US has now sold 99% of its target amount of Soybeans for the marketing year. The Brazil harvest has been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems in the north as well. Rains are coming to an end in some areas so harvest activities have increased but the harvest remains very slow overall. China has been buying for this year and next year here but now mostly in South America. US internal demand has also been strong as seen in the crush data. The strong demand for exports and for domestic use means there is little room for error and that the US could even come close to running out of Soybeans to sell.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1401, 1378, and 1368 May, and resistance is at 1432, 1446, and 1460 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 396.00 and 368.00 May. Support is at 395.00, 385.00, and 377.00 May, and resistance is at 415.00, 418.00, and 425.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 5430, 5360, and 5220 May, with resistance at 5600, 5660, and 5720 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on ideas of tight supplies available to the market. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields. Wet weather has caused even more delays. The weather is improved and trees seasonally increase production about now. Canola closed lower on what was called speculative profit taking. Canola still got talk of tight supplies due to reduced offers from farmers and reduced production earlier in the year. Worries about South American production coming to market were negative.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 786.00, 769.00, and 748.00 May, with resistance at 811.00, 814.00, and 820.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3800, 3690, and 3660 June, with resistance at 3930, 4060, and 4120 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry or just light precipitation after some big rains tomorrow. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March +76 May +140 May +104 May +59 May
April +75 May +100 May +65 May
May +65 May +100 May +69 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 16
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 797.90 -5.00 May 2021 dn 5.50
Basis: Thunder Bay 794.20 50.00 July 2021 dn 6.10
Basis: Vancouver 834.20 90.00 July 2021 dn 6.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 17
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1052.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr 1077.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 1027.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 940.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 865.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1055.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr 1080.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 1030.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 942.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 867.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1050.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 980.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4,250.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 340.00 -06.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1195)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 17
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 161,385 lots, or 9.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-21 5,882 5,911 5,805 5,831 5,918 5,841 -77 145,291 83,798
Jul-21 5,906 5,927 5,828 5,860 5,928 5,871 -57 2,308 4,190
Sep-21 5,880 5,910 5,841 5,865 5,889 5,867 -22 12,941 14,067
Nov-21 5,767 5,767 5,724 5,747 5,749 5,738 -11 438 5,767
Jan-22 5,608 5,635 5,606 5,616 5,622 5,622 0 382 4,077
Mar-22 5,553 5,565 5,508 5,508 5,548 5,534 -14 25 35
Corn
Turnover: 814,075 lots, or 22.04 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-21 2,721 2,740 2,696 2,704 2,710 2,718 8 517,709 607,797
Jul-21 2,714 2,730 2,697 2,704 2,714 2,715 1 75,254 105,372
Sep-21 2,680 2,709 2,668 2,677 2,687 2,688 1 152,054 334,759
Nov-21 2,655 2,677 2,642 2,651 2,653 2,660 7 51,119 97,880
Jan-22 2,649 2,669 2,638 2,647 2,645 2,653 8 5,316 22,032
Mar-22 2,637 2,667 2,626 2,636 2,636 2,647 11 12,623 6,794
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,876,401 lots, or 6.18 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-21 3,233 3,286 3,228 3,264 3,221 3,266 45 1,075,193 902,389
Jul-21 3,243 3,281 3,235 3,269 3,211 3,266 55 104,636 157,475
Aug-21 3,310 3,355 3,305 3,346 3,289 3,341 52 36,868 15,703
Sep-21 3,308 3,359 3,301 3,342 3,291 3,338 47 601,624 1,087,748
Nov-21 3,279 3,336 3,275 3,323 3,265 3,315 50 7,767 4,694
Dec-21 3,302 3,324 3,293 3,315 3,278 3,305 27 116 339
Jan-22 3,228 3,283 3,228 3,267 3,233 3,265 32 43,224 108,551
Mar-22 3,193 3,238 3,193 3,225 3,193 3,223 30 6,973 9,120
Palm Oil
Turnover: 876,512 lots, or 67.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-21 8,046 8,170 8,022 8,084 8,304 8,108 -196 311 982
May-21 7,818 7,862 7,734 7,860 8,010 7,792 -218 710,912 325,396
Jun-21 7,650 7,674 7,548 7,674 7,802 7,614 -188 3,008 2,716
Jul-21 7,464 7,464 7,320 7,444 7,564 7,390 -174 69 1,432
Aug-21 7,214 7,280 7,214 7,226 7,488 7,240 -248 3 386
Sep-21 7,130 7,160 7,058 7,154 7,302 7,114 -188 146,310 120,759
Oct-21 7,116 7,116 6,938 7,028 7,192 7,006 -186 11,173 24,598
Nov-21 6,962 6,972 6,876 6,954 7,128 6,930 -198 1,513 3,697
Dec-21 6,842 6,870 6,804 6,834 7,024 6,838 -186 1,526 1,828
Jan-22 6,710 6,710 6,636 6,684 6,834 6,670 -164 1,672 6,541
Feb-22 6,600 6,618 6,594 6,618 6,714 6,602 -112 10 18
Mar-22 6,622 6,622 6,592 6,592 6,640 6,616 -24 5 6
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,007,587 lots, or 91.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-21 9,268 9,294 9,164 9,280 9,424 9,238 -186 784,690 424,676
Jul-21 8,754 8,790 8,656 8,724 8,906 8,718 -188 13,433 12,574
Aug-21 8,572 8,608 8,514 8,582 8,708 8,560 -148 4,225 2,129
Sep-21 8,470 8,496 8,396 8,484 8,574 8,450 -124 188,048 277,693
Nov-21 8,382 8,382 8,236 8,320 8,428 8,288 -140 10,681 29,175
Dec-21 8,202 8,266 8,158 8,244 8,356 8,212 -144 2,984 5,193
Jan-22 8,156 8,206 8,108 8,180 8,284 8,160 -124 3,523 11,973
Mar-22 8,148 8,148 8,060 8,060 8,178 8,096 -82 3 9
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322