About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON       

General Comments:  Futures were higher and posted a positive close after spending much of the day near unchanged.  The weekly export sales report showed less demand last week.  Futures appear to be taking a break from the relentless up move seen over the last few months as chart trends are still mostly down on the daily charts.  The demand for US Cotton has been strong even with the Coronavirus.  The US Dollar has started to firm recently and could be hurting demand.  The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products.

Overnight News:  The Delta will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions or isolat4ed showers and above temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 83.50 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 99,706 bales, from 99,706 bales yesterday.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 91 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 8510 May.  Support is at 8730, 8570, and 8400 May, with resistance of 8930, 9010 and 9140 May.

 

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ closed a little higher again in range trading.  The tone of the market is mixed.  Some damage to leaves and open flowers was possible in Texas and northern Mexico in the wake of the recent hard freeze, but ideas are that the overall damage was minor.  Moderate temperatures are expected for Florida this week.  The weather in Florida is good with a few showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation.  Showers are falling in Brazil now and crop conditions are called good even with drier than normal soils.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production.  It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near normal.   Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted today for March delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 109.00, 106.00, and 103.00 May, with resistance at 113.00, 116.00, and 117.00 May.

 

COFFEE   

General Comments:  Futures were a little higher in New York despite better growing conditions in Brazil and a weaker Real.  London closed lower in anticipation of better offers from Vietnam.  Cash market buyers are not buying that much Coffee these days. Vietnam producers have not sold since the Tet holiday but are expected to start selling soon.  There are reports of good weather in Vietnam for the harvest.  Indonesia has had good weather but has little coffee to sell now.  Brazil was dry for flowering and initial fruit development.  Rains are now falling that should be very beneficial.  Central America is also drier for harvesting but production might have been reduced due to very wet conditions during the growing season.  Good growing conditions are reported in Colombia and Peru.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.815 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 118.78 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions.  Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 499 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 126.00 May.  Support is at 127.00, 124.00, and 121.00 May, and resistance is at 134.00, 137.00 and 140.00 May.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1380 May.   Support is at 1340, 1330, and 1320 May, and resistance is at 1410, 1450, and 1460 May.

 

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York and London closed lower on a weaker Brasilian Real.  The chart trends are sideways in both markets.  The market appears to be searching for a new source of demand to complement the traditional buying.  Rains were reported again in Brazil.  It has been raining in south central Brazil and the production of cane is looking solid for the next harvest.  Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year.  India is producing less Sugar and more Ethanol and has reported less cane production than expected.  Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.  The EU Sugar crop is less this year as is the crop in Russia.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1600, 1580, and 1560 May, and resistance is at 1650, 1670, and 1700 May.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 457.00, 453.00, and 451.00 May, and resistance is at 468.00, 477.00, and 485.00 May.

 

COCOA                

General Comments:  New York and London closed lower on what was called follow through speculative selling.  Demand should improve as the Covid vaccinations get administered.  The ICCO said that the Cocoa surplus would be about 100,000 tons this year.  Ivory Coast estimates its main crop production at 1.65 million tons.  There were reports of demand for Cocoa in Ivory Coast, although the reports noted that there is a lot to sell there.  The grind data has been weaker again implying less demand for chocolate.  There are ideas of big supplies at origin.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.788 million bags.  ICE said that 238 contracts were delivered against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,739 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2470, 2340, and 2280 May.  Support is at 2510, 2470, and 2430 May, with resistance at 2590, 2620, and 2670 May.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1770 and 1740 May.  Support is at 1720, 1680, and 1660 May, with resistance at 1800, 1830, and 1860 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322