Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower but mostly held the trading range for one more day. Chart trends are mostly mixed again. Ideas are that forecasts for rain in the Great Plains will help injured Winter Wheat. The threat of Winterkill production losses in the western Great Plains now appears to be part of the price. Temperatures dropped below 0F in many areas and that is cold enough to kill an unprotected crop. The actual damage will take some time to see under warmer temperatures and it might take until harvest to see the full effects of the recent extreme cold.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 640, 637, and 632 May, with resistance at 663, 669, and 672 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 613, 608, and 600 May, with resistance at 635, 640, and 645 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 636, 631, and 628 May, and resistance is at 652, 659, and 662 May.
General Comments: Rice was mixed, with old crop moths slightly higher and new crop months a little lower. Trends are still up on the daily charts. The cash market has not felt any increased export demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side. Exports were moderate last week. Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas. Asian and Mercosur markets were steady to firm last week.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1310, 1303, and 1292 May, with resistance at 1335, 1351, and 1356 May.
CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher on what was called follow through buying. Export demand has started to fall as the South America main crop is expected to be harvested soon. The big export crop is the Winter Corn crop whish is still being planted. Chinese demand had been strong until recently and it looks like they need the Corn either way. Prices inside China for Corn remain extremely high. It is raining in central and parts of northern Brazil in the last week, but farmers were still able to harvest some of the Soybeans area and plant some of the Winter Corn around the precipitation. The Winter Corn crop is on a very slow pace to be planted and progress is well behind normal. Argentina is now drier and Corn in Argentina could be stressed. Southern Brazil got showers. The main crop harvest has started in parts of Brazil, but progress will be slow due to the late planting dates due too dry conditions earlier in the year. The second crop of Corn planting is also being delayed and yield estimates for South American Corn have been reduced.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 541, 533, and 529 May, and resistance is at 556, 558, and 577 May. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 412 May. Support is at 383, 373, and 368 May, and resistance is at 400, 403, and 406 May.
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed higher and Soybean Meal closed a little lower. Selling came on ideas that the impending Brazil harvest will kill current demand for US Soybeans. Demand was improved last week in the weekly export data and the US has now sold 98% of its target amount of Soybeans for the marketing year. The Brazil harvest has been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems in the north as well. Rains are coming to an end in some areas so harvest activities have increased but the harvest remains very slow overall. China has been buying for this year and next year here but now mostly in South America. US internal demand has also been strong as seen in the crush data. The strong demand for exports and for domestic use means there is little room for error and that the US could even come close to running out of Soybeans to sell.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1460 and 1530 May. Support is at 1433, 1403, and 1368 May, and resistance is at 1465, 1472, and 1484 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 414.00, 405.00, and 395.00 May, and resistance is at 425.00, 434.00, and 442.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 5220, 5090, and 5060 May, with resistance at 5320, 5360, and 5390 May.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed sharply higher yesterday on strength in the outside markets. The export news has been good with February exports holding to stronger levels than January. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields. Wet weather has caused even more delays. The weather is improved and trees seasonally increase production about now. Canola closed higher on ideas of increasing demand, and Canola also got talk of tight supplies due to reduced offers from farmers and reduced production earlier in the year. Worries about South American production are supporting this market.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 840.00 and 920.00 May. Support is at 783.00, 769.00, and 748.00 May, with resistance at 802.00, 808.00, and 814.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3860, 3810, and 3670 May, with resistance at 3950, 4010, and 4070 May.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to above normal.Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322