About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON       

General Comments:  Futures were lower yesterday on demand worries.  Futures appear to be taking a break from the relentless up move seen over the last few months.  Chart trends are still sideways to down on the daily charts.  The demand for US Cotton has been strong even with the Coronavirus around and getting worse.  The overall weaker US Dollar has helped demand ideas as well although the Dollar has started to firm recently and could be hurting demand.  The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products.

Overnight News:  The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated showers and near to below normal temperatures.  Texas will have isolated showers and near to above temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 83.56 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 99,789 bales, from 99,789 bales yesterday.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 91 contracts.  USDA said that weekly net Upland Cotton export sales were 169,000 bales this year and 40,600 bales next year.  Net Pima sales were 7,800 bales this year and 0 bales next year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 8510 May.  Support is at 8790, 8730, and 8680 May, with resistance of 9010, 9140 and 9280 May.

 

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ closed higher in range trading.  Some damage to leaves and open flowers was possible in Texas and northern Mexico in the wake of the recent hard freeze, but ideas are that the overall damage was minor.  Moderate temperatures were reported in Florida last week and moderate temperatures are expected this week.  The weather in Florida is good with a few showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation.  Showers are falling in Brazil now and crop conditions are called good even with drier than normal soils.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production.  It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas.

Overnight News:  Florida should get scattered showers today and tomorrow, then dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted today for March delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 110.00, 109.00, and 106.00 May, with resistance at 116.00, 117.00, and 118.00 May.

 

COFFEE   

General Comments:  Futures were lower once again in both markets on better growing conditions in Brazil and a weaker Real.  Cash market buyers are not buying that much Coffee these days. Vietnam producers stopped selling during the Tet holiday and have not sold since.  Ideas of improving weather conditions were the biggest reason to sell.  There are reports of good weather in Vietnam for the harvest.  Indonesia has had good weather but has little coffee to sell now.  Brazil has been dry for flowering and initial fruit development.  Rains are now falling that should be very beneficial.  Central America is also drier for harvesting but production might have been reduced due to very wet conditions during the growing season.  Good growing conditions are reported in Colombia and Peru.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.790 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 122.65 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions.  Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.  ICE said that 6 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 392 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 131.00 and 126.00 May.  Support is at 131.00, 129.00, and 124.00 May, and resistance is at 137.00, 140.00 and 143.00 May.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1320 and 1380 May.   Support is at 1430, 1390, and 1340 May, and resistance is at 1460, 1490, and 1520 May.

 

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York and London closed lower and the chart trends remain down in New York and sideways in London.  Ideas of increased demand are still around as traditional buyers have been active.  The market appears to be searching for a new source of demand to complement the traditional buying.  Rains were reported again in Brazil.  It has been raining in south central Brazil and the production of cane is looking solid for the next harvest.  Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year.  India is producing less Sugar and more Ethanol.  Growing conditions are called good.  Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.  The EU Sugar crop is less this year as is the crop in Russia.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1590 and 1510 May.  Support is at 1600, 1580, and 1560 May, and resistance is at 1670, 1700, and 1720 May.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 455.00, 451.00, and 446.00 May, and resistance is at 477.00, 485.00, and 490.00 May.

 

COCOA                

General Comments:  New York and London closed a little higher once again.  Demand is expected to improve as the world economies recover from Covid induced downturns.  Demand should improve as the vaccinations get administered.  The ICCO said that the Cocoa surplus would be about 100,000 tons this year.  Ivory Coast estimates its main crop production at 1.65 million tons.  There were reports of demand for Cocoa in Ivory Coast, although the reports noted that there is a lot to sell there.  The grind data has been weaker again implying less demand for chocolate.  There are ideas of big supplies at origin.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.757 million bags.  ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,142 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2710 and 2920 May.  Support is at 2590, 2570, and 2540 May, with resistance at 2670, 2710, and 2760 May.  Trends in London are up with no objectives.  Support is at 1800, 1780, and 1770 May, with resistance at 1850, 1860, and 1880 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322