William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
The CBOT has morphed into a “supply Bull” from a “demand Bull” as S/A supplies come on line -at lower prices than the US – cutting into mkt share! But the S/A problematical weather is still an issue with N Brazil too wet for harvest & Argentina too dry for proper crop development! The attention will shift from old crop to new crop – as there is absolutely no margin for error in the upcoming US row crop season! Stocks – severely depleted by El Nina in S/A & record demand from China – have reached 6-7 year lows & desperately need to be replenished by an ample US Harvest! We see sideways to up – from now until early summer until we have a better handle on US production & yield
As you can see, May Corn has drifted into a sideway trading pattern. The upside is limited by waning exports as S/A supplies – newly on-line & cheaper than the US – have encroached on our export share! The downside is limited by extreme supply uncertainty as the “jury is still out” on the ultimate size of the drought-ravaged S/A crop – as well as the upcoming US crop! One bullish wildcard is the expected dramatic recovery of the US economy – energized by widespread vaccination & the passage of the Covid Relief Package! Much elevated ethanol demand should be a welcome by-product! The USDA issues very important reports this month – the 3/9 WASDE & THE 3/31 PLTG & QTLY STOCKS! Some argue the Corn has already gone up far enough – following its $2.00 rise since mid-2020! However, it wasn’t that long ago -that we had $8.00 corn! And if El Nina invades the US in a few months, then we’re too cheap today!!
May Wht closed up 16 cents yesterday on the back on lower crop ratings for the plain states – issued by the USDA Mon afternoon! Previously, the contact tickled the 690 level off the bitter cold snap which we all suffered thru a few weeks back! But today, the mkt is back lower – being essentially range-bound – like its sister mkt – corn & beans! The mkt will need better exports & help from C & B to resume its up!!
Apr Cat has corrected $8.00 (127-119) due to more slaughter, heavier average weights & slack foreign demand! Also recent Cattle-on-Feed reports have jacked up the placements! However, the “Ace in the Hole” is a refurbished US economy which should dramatically increase domestic demand – as restaurants re-open & consumers soon get a freshly-minted stimulus check in their hands!
The marked disparity between Apr Hogs – today limit-up & only $2.00 off its highs – and Apr Cat – currently $7.00 off its highs is very simple! CHINA DEMAND! It was widely expected to diminish into 2021 – as China successfully rebuilt its hog herd – but recent flares ups of ASF have changed that narrative – with their appetite for our pork returning to 2020 levels! That coupled with increased domestic demand off the restaurant re-openings bodes well for the Hog Mkt in 2021!Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337