About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON       

General Comments:  Futures were sharply higher yesterday and chart trends are sideways to down on the daily charts.  The weekly export sales report on Thursday showed solid demand for US Cotton and the demand has been strong even with the Coronavirus around and getting worse.  The overall weaker US Dollar has helped demand ideas as well although the Dollar has started to firm recently.  The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products.  The stock market was much higher yesterday.

Overnight News:  The Delta will get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated showers and near to below normal temperatures.  Texas will have isolated showers and near to above temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 86.68 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 99,789 bales, from 99,789 bales yesterday.  ICE said that 5 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 78 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 8510 May.  Support is at 8790, 8730, and 8580 May, with resistance of 8970, 9080 and 9220 May.

 

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ closed higher and climbed back into the trading range on the daily charts.  Some damage to leaves and open flowers was possible in Texas and northern Mexico in the wake of the recent hard freeze, but ideas are that the overall damage was minor.  Moderate temperatures were reported in Florida last week and moderate temperatures are expected this week.  The weather in Florida is good with a few showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation.  A few showers are falling in Brazil now and crop conditions are called good even with drier than normal soils.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production.  It is dry in northern Mexican growing areas.

Overnight News:  Florida should get scattered showers today and tomorrow, then dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted today for March delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 110.00, 109.00, and 106.00 May, with resistance at 116.00, 117.00, and 118.00 May.

 

COFFEE   

General Comments:  Futures were lower in New York and a little lower in London as Vietnam producers stopped selling during the Tet holiday and have not sold since.  Ideas of improving weather conditions were the biggest reason to sell.  There are reports of good weather in Vietnam for the harvest.  Indonesia has had good weather but has little coffee to sell now.  Brazil has been dry for flowering and initial fruit development.  Rains are now falling that could be very beneficial.  Central America is also drier for harvesting but production might have been reduced due to very wet conditions during the growing season.  Good growing conditions are reported in Colombia and Peru.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.784 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 125.30 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions.  Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.  ICE said that 43 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 347 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 131.00 and 126.00 May.  Support is at 135.00, 133.00, and 131.00 May, and resistance is at 140.00, 143.00 and 146.00 May.  Trends in London are mixed.   Support is at 1450, 1430, and 1390 May, and resistance is at 1490, 1520, and 1550 May.

 

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York was lower and London closed higher and trends are trying to turn down in both markets.  Ideas of increased demand are still around as traditional buyers have been active.  Rains were reported again in Brazil.  It has been raining in south central Brazil and the production of cane is over for the season.  Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year.  India is producing less Sugar and more Ethanol.  Growing conditions are called good.  Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.  The EU Sugar crop is less this year as is the crop in Russia.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.  ICE said that 17,582 contracts of Sugar were tendered for delivery against July.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1590 and 1510 May.  Support is at 1610, 1580, and 1560 May, and resistance is at 1670, 1700, and 1720 May.  Trends in London are down with objectives of 451.00, 448.00 and 446.00 May.  Support is at 451.00, 446.00, and 440.00 May, and resistance is at 466.00, 477.00, and 485.00 May.

 

COCOA                

General Comments:  New York and London closed higher once again.  The fundamentals appear to be bearish for now but demand is expected to improve as the world economies recover from Covid induced downturns.  The ICCO said that the Cocoa surplus would be about 100,000 tons this year.  Ivory Coast estimates its main crop production at 1.65 million tons.  There were reports of demand for Cocoa in Ivory Coast, although the reports noted that there is a lot to sell there.  The grind data has been weaker again implying less demand for chocolate.  There are ideas of big supplies at origin.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.799 million bags.  ICE said that 227 contracts were delivered against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 389 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2710 and 2920 May.  Support is at 2600, 2570, and 2540 May, with resistance at 2670, 2710, and 2760 May.  Trends in London are up with no objectives.  Support is at 1770, 1730, and 1710 May, with resistance at 1850, 1860, and 1890 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322