About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON       

General Comments:  Futures were higher for the week and made a new weekly chart high close once again.  The weekly export sales report on Thursday showed solid demand for US Cotton and the demand has been strong even with the Coronavirus around and getting worse.  The overall weaker US Dollar has helped demand ideas as well although the Dollar has started to firm recently.  The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products.  The US Dollar rallied sharply on Friday to hurt export demand ideas.

Overnight News:  The Delta will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures.  Texas will have isolated showers and near to below temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 83.94 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 99,789 bales, from 100,129 bales yesterday.  ICE said that 5 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 78 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 8510 May.  Support is at 8790, 8730, and 8580 May, with resistance of 8970, 9080 and 9220 May.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 23, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #033661                                                              Open Interest is   301,974

: Positions                                                                               :

:   82,728     8,502    55,002    53,591   221,988    89,211     9,167   280,531   294,659:   21,443     7,315

: Changes from: February 16, 2021          (Change in open interest:      11,938)         :

:    4,472       -74     2,713     4,015     8,565       922     1,242    12,121    12,446:     -183      -508

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     27.4       2.8      18.2      17.7      73.5      29.5       3.0      92.9      97.6:      7.1       2.4

: Total Traders:   301          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:      141        32        77        51        64        46        21       265       176:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ closed lower and made new lows for the move on the weekly charts.  Some damage to leaves and open flowers was possible in Texas and northern Mexico, but ideas are that the overall damage was minor.  Moderate temperatures were reported in Florida last week.  The weather in Florida is good with a few showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation.  Showers are falling in Brazil now and crop conditions are called good.  Mexican crop conditions otherwise are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production.  It is dry in northern Mexican growing areas.

Overnight News:  Florida should get isolated showers or dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted today for March delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 conttracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 106.00, 101.00, and 94.00 May.  Support is at 109.00, 106.00, and 103.00 May, with resistance at 114.00, 116.00, and 117.00 May.

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 23, 2021

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)                               :

CFTC Code #040701                                                    Open Interest is    13,867                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:    5,660     7,710     1,580        70         0     1,206     1,909        60     1,070       660       953 :

: Changes from:     February 16, 2021                                                                          :

:     -165      -598        80       -37        -1      -297       367        56       163       -19      -945 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     40.8      55.6      11.4       0.5       0.0       8.7      13.8       0.4       7.7       4.8       6.9 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    64                     :

:       18         9         5         .         0         4        14         .        15         4         7 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

 

COFFEE   

General Comments:  Futures were higher for the week in New York on ideas of less offer from Brazil and a little higher in London as Vietnam producers stopped selling during the Tet holiday and have not sold since.  There are reports of good weather in Vietnam for the harvest.  Indonesia has had good weather but has little coffee to sell now.  Brazil has been dry for flowering and initial fruit development and it has been warm and dry in recent times.  Rains are now falling that could be very beneficial.  Central America is also drier for harvesting but production might have been reduced due to very wet conditions during the growing season.  Good growing conditions are reported in Colombia and Peru.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.771 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 127.06 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions.  Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.  ICE said that 43 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 347 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 141.00 May.  Support is at 135.00, 133.00, and 131.00 May, and resistance is at 140.00, 143.00 and 146.00 May.  Trends in London are up with no objectives.   Support is at 1450, 1430, and 1390 May, and resistance is at 1490, 1520, and 1550 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322