About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT          

General Comments Wheat markets were a little higher last week except for HRW futures that were lower and held to recent trading ranges on the weekly charts.  The daily charts show a breakout higher and then a collapse back into the trading range.  The late week selling came in part in response to the weaker than expected export sales report on Thursday.  Futures were higher on the threat of Winterkill in the western Great Plains.  Temperatures dropped below 0F in many areas and that is cold enough to kill an unprotected crop.  The actual damage will take some time to see under warmer temperatures and it might take until harvest to see the full effects of the recent extreme cold.  However, it seems that the freeze is part of the price for now.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get scattered to isolated showers.  Temperatures should be near to below normal.  Northern areas should see scattered to isolated showers. Temperatures will be near to below normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near to below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 648, 642, and 637 May, with resistance at 672, 680, and 688 May.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 626, 616, and 608 May, with resistance at 645, 652, and 664 May.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 635, 628, and 625 May, and resistance is at 650, 659, and 662 May.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 23, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #001602                                                              Open Interest is   516,298

: Positions                                                                               :

:   77,541    82,428   146,596    58,937   197,677   194,932    38,328   478,006   465,029:   38,292    51,269

: Changes from: February 16, 2021          (Change in open interest:     -45,255)         :

:      825       544   -35,314   -11,378    -5,242     1,617    -5,386   -44,250   -45,398:   -1,005       143

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     15.0      16.0      28.4      11.4      38.3      37.8       7.4      92.6      90.1:      7.4       9.9

: Total Traders:   378          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:       84       109       117        74       116        47        20       282       297:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 23, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #001612                                                              Open Interest is   243,842

: Positions                                                                               :

:   53,045    24,042    54,746    33,576   135,280    78,141     7,985   219,509   222,054:   24,333    21,788

: Changes from: February 16, 2021          (Change in open interest:      -8,121)         :

:   -1,871     1,329    -2,788    -3,030    -3,965      -184    -2,104    -7,872    -7,527:     -248      -594

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     21.8       9.9      22.5      13.8      55.5      32.0       3.3      90.0      91.1:     10.0       8.9

: Total Traders:   249          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:       64        37        58        62        92        36        17       188       184:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 23, 2021

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                     :

CFTC Code #001626                                                    Open Interest is    86,624                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:   38,969    60,930     3,481         0     1,046    15,281     3,128     3,247     4,121     1,850     4,501 :

: Changes from:     February 16, 2021                                                                          :

:   -5,681    -4,301      -409      -190      -367        99       158        63      -203    -1,809      -546 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     45.0      70.3       4.0       0.0       1.2      17.6       3.6       3.7       4.8       2.1       5.2 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   117                     :

:       53        44         6         0         .        20         7         7        12         4        10 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 23, 2021

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

BLACK SEA WHEAT FINANCIAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   50 Metric Tons                                            :

CFTC Code #00160F                                                    Open Interest is    16,456                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:    8,580    10,716       149       320       250     5,502     4,252         0       573       230       231 :

: Changes from:     February 16, 2021                                                                          :

:      597       322      -250        60         0       525       406         0      -577         0       231 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     52.1      65.1       0.9       1.9       1.5      33.4      25.8       0.0       3.5       1.4       1.4 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    27                     :

:        9        16         .         .         .         5         .         0         .         .         . :

—————————————————————————————————————-

 

RICE  

General Comments:  Rice was lower last week.  The export sales report was strong, and featured sales to Japan and Venezuela.  The cash market has not felt any increased demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side.  Exports had been strong until recently and were moderate last week.  Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states.  Asian and Mercosur markets were mixed to form last week but this has not yet affected the US world price that much.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal.

Chart Analysis:   Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1296, 1290, and 1273 May, with resistance at 1315, 1326, and 1335 May.

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 23, 2021

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS)                                            :

CFTC Code #039601                                                    Open Interest is     9,729                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:    4,543     7,457       168         0         0     1,681       467         0       803       691       375 :

: Changes from:     February 16, 2021                                                                          :

:       26      -770        65         0         0      -710         0         0        18       -25        69 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     46.7      76.6       1.7       0.0       0.0      17.3       4.8       0.0       8.3       7.1       3.9 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    43                     :

:       12        15         .         0         0         7         .         0         5         5         6 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

 

CORN AND OATS:  

General Comments:  Corn closed a little higher and Oats were higher and made new weekly chart highs with Corn up a bit on South American weather.  It has rained in central and parts of northern Brazil in the last week, but farmers were able to harvest some of the Soybeans area and plant some of the Winter Corn around the precipitation.  Southern Brazil and Argentina are now drier and Corn in Argentina could be stressed.  The main crop harvest has started in parts of Brazil, but progress will be slow due to the late planting dates due too dry conditions earlier in the year.  The second crop of Corn planting is also being delayed and yield estimates for South American Corn have been reduced.  Demand for US Corn has been good but export demand was very low last week.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 540, 530, and 523 May, and resistance is at 551, 558, and 572 May.  Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 386 and 412 May.  Support is at 360, 355, and 351 May, and resistance is at 368, 373, and 376 May.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 23, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #002602                                                              Open Interest is 2,462,699

: Positions                                                                               :

:  439,489    66,662   534,064   695,311 1,458,157   570,470   164,341 2,239,334 2,223,224:  223,365   239,475

: Changes from: February 16, 2021          (Change in open interest:    -202,270)         :

:   -8,661     4,506  -112,200   -55,360   -63,679   -20,283   -24,336  -196,504  -195,709:   -5,766    -6,561

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     17.8       2.7      21.7      28.2      59.2      23.2       6.7      90.9      90.3:      9.1       9.7

: Total Traders:   956          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:      231       116       207       412       485        50        25       782       765:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 23, 2021

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                                   :

CFTC Code #004603                                                    Open Interest is     4,352                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:      921     3,329       113         0         0       794         0         0       587         0       118 :

: Changes from:     February 16, 2021                                                                          :

:      -39       -85         6         0         0      -220         0         0         4       -15        87 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     21.2      76.5       2.6       0.0       0.0      18.2       0.0       0.0      13.5       0.0       2.7 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    24                     :

:        8        11         .         0         0         6         0         0         4         0         . :

—————————————————————————————————————-

 

SOYBEANS 

General Comments:  Soybeans closed higher and Soybean Meal closed a little lower.  Selling came on ideas that the impending Brazil harvest will kill current demand for US Soybeans.  Demand was less last week in the weekly export data and was about the worst of the marketing year.  The Brazil harvest has been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems in the north as well.  Rains are coming to an end in some areas so harvest activities have increased but the harvest remains very slow overall.  China has been buying for this year and next year here but also in South America.  The strong demand for exports and for domestic use means there is little room for error and that the US could even come close to running out of Soybeans to sell.

Overnight News:    

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1378, 1368, and 1337 May, and resistance is at 1410, 1446, and 1458 May.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.   Support is at 414.00, 405.00, and 395.00 May, and resistance is at 425.00, 434.00, and 442.00 May.  Trends in Soybean Oil are up with no objectives.  Support is at 4860, 4800, and 4700 May, with resistance at 5100, 5160, and 5220 May.

 

DJ Brazil Soybean Harvest Picks Up Speed But Still Lags Last Year — Market Talk 

0724 ET – Brazilian farmers had harvested 25% of the area planted with soybeans as of Feb. 25, a jump of 10 percentage points from a week earlier but still behind the 40% harvested on the same date a year ago, according to agricultural consultancy AgRural. The crop became ready for harvesting in more areas over the previous week, speeding harvesting work, AgRural said. But the 25% figure was still the lowest for the date since the 2010-2011 growing season, and farmers were held back from harvesting more by February rains, according to the consultancy. AgRural last week raised its forecast for soybean production for the current crop year to a record 133 million metric tons, from its previous forecast of 131.7 million tons. (jeffrey.lewis@wsj.com)

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 23, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #005602                                                              Open Interest is 1,173,245

: Positions                                                                               :

:  186,881    35,090   303,060   336,221   643,821   258,390    93,728 1,084,552 1,075,699:   88,693    97,546

: Changes from: February 16, 2021          (Change in open interest:    -121,388)         :

:   12,584     2,718   -76,102   -44,543   -38,109   -14,319   -17,161  -122,380  -128,653:      992     7,266

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     15.9       3.0      25.8      28.7      54.9      22.0       8.0      92.4      91.7:      7.6       8.3

: Total Traders:   657          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:      218        85       196       205       265        49        22       548       508:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 23, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #007601                                                              Open Interest is   551,290

: Positions                                                                               :

:  101,604    20,755   122,704   126,593   357,887   153,207    23,999   504,109   525,345:   47,182    25,945

: Changes from: February 16, 2021          (Change in open interest:     -75,551)         :

:    4,272      -861   -35,185   -34,702   -31,979    -9,061    -8,375   -74,676   -76,400:     -875       849

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     18.4       3.8      22.3      23.0      64.9      27.8       4.4      91.4      95.3:      8.6       4.7

: Total Traders:   321          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:      107        46        80        92        90        43        19       280       204:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 23, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #026603                                                              Open Interest is   464,978

: Positions                                                                               :

:   66,221    13,088    82,698   143,468   316,402   111,552    21,984   403,939   434,172:   61,040    30,807

: Changes from: February 16, 2021          (Change in open interest:     -32,674)         :

:    2,486    -1,642   -16,274   -13,883    -7,082    -4,670    -7,807   -32,341   -32,805:     -334       130

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     14.2       2.8      17.8      30.9      68.0      24.0       4.7      86.9      93.4:     13.1       6.6

: Total Traders:   277          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:       77        29        65       107       103        37        16       251       194:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL          

General Comments:  Palm Oil closed higher on the back of stronger Soyoil futures.  The export news has been good with February exports holding to stronger levels than January.  The concern is that the higher price with the higher tax would scare away would be buyers.  The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields.  Wet weather has caused even more delays.  Canola closed sharply lower on what was called follow through selling and selling based on Chicago price action.  It appeared that speculators were trying to take some profits.  The market has been very strong on demand against very limited supplies in the country.  Futures have rallied sharply in the last few weeks but are now giving back a part of the gains.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 716.00, 703.00, and 692.00 May, with resistance at 752.00, 783.00, and 789.00 May.  Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 3810 May.  Support is at 3700, 3630, and 3600 May, with resistance at 3800, 3830, and 3860 May.

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 23, 2021

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S.   (20 Metric Tonnes)                                                                 :

CFTC Code #135731                                                    Open Interest is   247,945                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:  165,060   195,629       120     4,788     3,724    43,253     3,296     7,531     8,566    14,723    16,938 :

: Changes from:     February 16, 2021                                                                          :

:    4,770     1,182        39    -1,258    -2,541    -4,128       177    -1,038       773     1,220    -4,425 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     66.6      78.9       0.0       1.9       1.5      17.4       1.3       3.0       3.5       5.9       6.8 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   251                     :

:       57        51         .         6         .        57         6         8        63        38        32 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

 

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

 

 

 

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March +66 Mar +140 Mar +105 Mar +74 Mar
April +71 Mar +100 May +70 May
May +65 May +100 Mar +73 May
         
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322