Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed to lower but once again held to recent trading ranges. Futures have been higher recently as the threat of Winterkill in the western Great Plains appeared for the past week. Temperatures dropped below 0F in many areas and that is cold enough to kill an unprotected crop. The actual damage will take some time to see under warmer temperatures and it might take until harvest to see the full effects of the recent extreme cold. Chart trends are still sideways but there is an upside bias showing.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 650, 639, and 632 March, with resistance at 669, 673, and 688 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 630, 625, and 620 March, with resistance at 645, 648, and 649 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 632, 627, and 622 March, and resistance is at 638, 640, and 644 March.
General Comments: Rice was lower in moderate volume trading with many traders rolling positions from March to forward months. The outright buying seemed to be less yesterday and futures appear to be stuck in a short term trading range. The cash market has not felt any increased demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side. Exports had been strong until recently and were moderate last week. Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states. Asian and Mercosur markets have firmed recently and were mixed last week but this has not yet affected the US world price that much.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1275, 1260, and 1253 March, with resistance at 1297, 1310, and 1318 March.
DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Feb 24
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 17.98 11.50 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 17.61 11.76 0.00
Brokens 11.41 —- —-
CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher with Corn on South American weather and Oats finally reacting to strength in Corn and Sorghum prices. Both markets also rallied on general buying seen in commodities by speculators. It has rained in central and parts of northern Brazil in the last week, but farmers were able to harvest Soybeans and plant the Winter Corn around the precipitation. Southern Brazil and Argentina are now drier and Corn in Argentina could be stressed. The main crop harvest has started in parts of Brazil, but progress will be slow due to the late planting dates due too dry conditions earlier in the year. The second crop of Corn planting is also being delayed and yield estimates for South American Corn have been reduced.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 550, 541, and 537 March, and resistance is at 568, 574, and 580 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 368 and 385 March. Support is at 358, 353, and 351 March, and resistance is at 368, 370, and 373 March.
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher on South American weather concerns and on general commodities buying from speculators. Selling came on ideas that the impending Brazil harvest will kill current demand for US Soybeans but sellers were hard to find early yesterday as futures rallied back closer to previous contract highs. The northern Brazil harvest has been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems as well. Rains are coming to an end in some areas so harvest activities have increased but the harvest progress remains far behind normal. Even so, prices and basis quotes from Brazil are well below those of the US for nearby export. China has been buying for this year and next year here but also in South America. The strong demand for exports and for domestic use means there is little room for error and that the US could even come close to running out of Soybeans to sell.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1452 and 1476 March. Support is at 1388, 1366, and 1342 March, and resistance is at 1436, 1448, and 1460 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 418.00, 417.00, and 408.00 March, and resistance is at 437.00, 444.00, and 456.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 4960 March. Support is at 4810, 4720, and 4620 March, with resistance at 4950, 4980, and 5010 March.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower on what was called speculative profit taking after making new highs for the move. The export news has been good with February exports holding to stronger levels than January. The concern is that the higher price with the higher tax would scare away would be buyers. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields. Wet weather has caused even more delays. Canola closed sharply higher once again yesterday and March remained above C$800.00/ton on ideas of increasing demand. Canola also got talk of tight supplies due to reduced offers from farmers and reduced production earlier in the year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 843.00 March. Support is at 803.00, 778.00, and 745.00 March, with resistance at 832.00, 838.00, and 844.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3810 May. Support is at 3560, 3460, and 3380 May, with resistance at 3710, 3740, and 3770 May.
Midwest Weather Forecast: More rain and snow today and then over the weekend. Temperatures should average below normal.
|US Gulf Cash Basis|
|Corn||HRW||SRW||Soybeans||Soybean Meal||Soybean Oil|
|February||+75 Mar||+148 Mar||+105 Mar||+80 Mar|
|March||+71 Mar||+105 Mar||+75 Mar|
|April||+70 May||+100 Mar||+73 May|