About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON       

General Comments:  Futures were higher and made new highs for the move.  The weekly export sales report on Friday showed solid demand for US Cotton despite the Lunar New Year holiday and the demand has been strong even with the Coronavirus around and getting worse.  The overall weaker US Dollar has helped demand ideas as well although the Dollar has started to firm recently.  The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products.  The market feels tight this year and the USDA Outlook Forum showed a tight scenario for next year with ending stocks at just 3.8 million bales.

Overnight News:  The Delta will get scattered showers later this week and near to above normal temperatures and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to below temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 85.59 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 100,326 bales, from 100,326 bales yesterday.  ICE said that 15 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 33 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 9340 May.  Support is at 9000, 8910, and 8790 May, with resistance of 9240, 9300 and 9360 May.

 

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ closed lower in March but unchanged to higher in the other months on position rolling before First Notice Day.  There are reports of light damage to crops in Texas and northeast Mexico from the cold temperatures last week.  Moderate temperatures were reported in Florida last week.  The weather in Florida is good with a few showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation.  Showers are falling in Brazil now and crop conditions are called good.  Mexican crop conditions otherwise are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production.  It is dry in northern Mexican growing areas.

Overnight News:  Florida should get isolated showers or dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 106.00 and 101.00 March.  Support is at 108.00, 103.00, and 100.00 March, with resistance at 110.00, 112.00, and 115.00 March.

 

COFFEE   

General Comments:  Futures were sharply higher in New York on ideas of less offer from Brazil and in London as Vietnam producers are not selling after the Tet holiday.  There are reports of good weather in Vietnam for the harvest.  Indonesia has had good weather but has little coffee to sell now.  Brazil has been dry for flowering and initial fruit development and it has been warm and dry in recent times.  Rains are now falling that could be very beneficial.  Vietnam has harvested its production under mostly dry conditions.  Central America is also drier for harvesting.  Good growing conditions are reported in Colombia and Peru.  The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels.  Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.739 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 124.56 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions.  Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.  ICE said that 74 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 192 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 134.00 and 141.00 May.  Support is at 133.00, 131.00, and 129.00 May, and resistance is at 137.00, 140.00 and 143.00 May.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 1430 May.   Support is at 1390, 1370, and 1350 May, and resistance is at 1430, 1460, and 1490 May.

 

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York and London closed higher and both markets made new highs for the move and new contract highs.  Ideas of increased demand are still around as traditional buyers have been active.  Rains were reported again in Brazil.  It has been raining in south central Brazil and the production of cane is over for the season.  Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year.  India is producing less Sugar and more Ethanol.  Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.  The EU Sugar crop is less this year as is the crop in Russia.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1770 and 1830 May.  Support is at 1670, 1610, and 1580 May, and resistance is at 1750, 1780, and 1810 May.  Trends in London are up with no objectives.  Support is at 475.00, 461.00, and 458.00 May, and resistance is at 494.00, 500.00, and 506.00 May.

 

COCOA                

General Comments:  New York and London closed higher on inflation concerns.  The fundamentals appear to be bearish.  The ICCO said that the Cocoa surplus would be about 100,000 tons this year.  Ivory Coast raised its main crop production estimate by 100,000 tons to 1.65 million tons.  There were reports of demand for Cocoa in Ivory Coast, although the reports noted that there is a lot to sell there.  The grind data has been weaker again implying less demand for chocolate.  Ivory Coast has not been shipping as exporters have asked to hold off.  There are ideas of big supplies at origin.  Wire reports say that Ivory Coast has abandoned its tax scheme and instead is offering a discount to get Cocoa moving again.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.576 million bags.  ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 62 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2450, 2420, and 2370 May, with resistance at 2500, 2540, and 2570 May.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1710 and 1760 May.  Support is at 1660, 1630, and 1610 May, with resistance at 1700, 1730, and 1740 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322