About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT          

General Comments Wheat markets were higher but held to recent trading ranges.  Futures were higher as the threat of Winterkill in the western Great Plains appeared for the past week.  Temperatures dropped below 0F in many areas and that is cold enough to kill an unprotected crop.  The actual damage will take some time to see under warmer temperatures and it might take until harvest to see the full effects of the recent extreme cold.  Most traders now expect less or no Wheat offers from Black Sea ports after the middle of March.   USDA issued their first look at the next crop year at the Outlook Forum late in the week.  Planted Wheat area was less than expected, implying that Spring Wheat area could be less this Summer.  The demand side of the table was in line with expectations and ending stocks for the coming year were estimated at 698 million bushels, from 836 million for the current year.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers.  Temperatures should be below normal.  Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will be below normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 650, 639, and 632 March, with resistance at 669, 673, and 688 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 630, 625, and 620 March, with resistance at 645, 648, and 649 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 632, 627, and 622 March, and resistance is at 638, 640, and 644 March.

 

RICE  

General Comments:  Rice was higher in active trading with many traders rolling positions from March to forward months.  The market got follow through strength from the rally on Friday.  The cash market has not felt any increased demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side.  Exports had been strong until recently and were moderate last week.  Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states.  Asian and Mercosur markets have firmed recently and were mixed last week but this has not yet affected the US world price that much.  The Outlook Conference estimates for next year showed reduced planted and harvested area and reduced production.  Domestic demand weas cut quite a bit and export demand was cut a little bit so ending stocks were left relatively high at 39.3 million cwt and a stocks to use ratio of 16.3.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal.

Chart Analysis:   Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1275, 1260, and 1253 March, with resistance at 1297, 1310, and 1318 March.

 

CORN AND OATS:  

General Comments:  Corn and Oats were higher with Corn on South American weather and the latest estimates from the USDA Outlook Conference.  Both markets also rallied on general buying seen in commodities by speculators.  It has rained in central and parts of northern Brazil in the last week, but farmers were able to harvest Soybeans and plant the Winter Corn around the precipitation.  Southern Brazil and Argentina are now drier and Corn in Argentina could be stressed.  The main crop harvest has started in parts of Brazil, but progress will be slow due to the late planting dates due too dry conditions earlier in the year.  The second crop of Corn planting is also being delayed and yield estimates for South American Corn have been reduced.  The Outlook Conference estimates released Friday by USDA were in line with general trade ideas.  Ending stocks were estimated at 1.552 billion bushels for a stocks to use ratio of 10.3.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 541, 537, and 535 March, and resistance is at 555, 558, and 568 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 345, 341, and 335 March, and resistance is at 354, 357, and 360 March.

 

SOYBEANS 

General Comments:  Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed higher and Soybean Meal closed lower.  Selling came on ideas that the impending Brazil harvest will kill current demand for US Soybeans.  Demand was less yesterday in the weekly export data, but still relatively strong due to harvest delays in Brazil.  The harvest has been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems as well.  Rains are coming to an end in some areas so harvest activities have increased but the harvest progress remains far behind normal.  Even so, prices and basis quotes from Brazil are well below those of the US for nearby export.  China has been buying for this year and next year here but also in South America.  The strong demand for exports and for domestic use means there is little room for error and that the US could even come close to running out of Soybeans to sell.  The USDA Outlook Conference highlighted estimates that the situation for Soybeans could stay tight next year.  Ending stocks were estimated at just 145 million bushels for a stocks to use ratio of 3.2.

Overnight News:    

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1366, 1342, and 1337 March, and resistance is at 1395, 1407, and 1409 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.   Support is at 418.00, 417.00, and 408.00 March, and resistance is at 433.00, 437.00, and 444.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 4960 March.  Support is at 4620, 4550, and 4520 March, with resistance at 4850, 4860, and 4920 March.

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL          

General Comments:  Palm Oil closed higher on ideas of tight supplies.  The export news has been good with February exports holding to stronger levels than January.  The concern is that the higher price with the higher tax would scare away would be buyers.  The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields.  Wet weather has caused even more delays.  Canola closed sharply higher yesterday and March closed above C$800.00/ton on ideas of increasing demand.  Canola also got talk of tight supplies due to reduced offers from farmers and reduced production earlier in the year.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 807.00 and 843.00 March.  Support is at 778.00, 745.00, and 730.00 March, with resistance at 808.00, 814.00, and 820.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3810 May.  Support is at 3460, 3380, and 3340 May, with resistance at 3620, 3650, and 3680 May.

 

Midwest Weather Forecast:   More rain and snow today and then over the weekend.  Temperatures should average below normal.

 

 

 

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February +81 Mar +160 Mar +135 Mar +77 Mar
March +72 Mar +105 Mar +75 Mar
April +70 May +100 Mar +73 May
         

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 22 

By MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from

ICE Futures.

Source: ICE Futures

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region          737.40    -36.10    Mar 2021     up 8.60

Basis: Thunder Bay   798.20     45.00    May 2021     up 17.70

Basis: Vancouver     818.20     65.00    May 2021     up 17.70

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,

or 204-414-9084)

 

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Feb 23 

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Mar          1037.50     +20.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun   957.50     +27.50      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   870.00     +25.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Mar          1040.00     +20.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun   960.00     +27.50      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   872.50     +25.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Mar          1010.00     +15.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Mar           945.00     +10.00      Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Mar           4,025.00   +65.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Mar           302.00     00.00       Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.0415)

 

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 23 

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 200,754 lots, or 11.85 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Mar-21     5,799     5,973     5,795     5,897     5,799     5,813        14       672     1,651

May-21     5,856     5,999     5,854     5,937     5,893     5,914        21   189,502    84,021

Jul-21     5,788     5,916     5,787     5,852     5,775     5,834        59     1,334     2,022

Sep-21     5,600     5,769     5,590     5,721     5,615     5,677        62     6,791     8,176

Nov-21     5,526     5,576     5,480     5,535     5,524     5,530         6     1,909     1,473

Jan-22     5,426     5,475     5,416     5,437     5,443     5,432       -11       546     1,552

Corn

Turnover: 1,274,967 lots, or 35.30 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Mar-21     2,836     2,841     2,803     2,822     2,831     2,823        -8     9,284    46,630

May-21     2,797     2,805     2,763     2,786     2,812     2,781       -31   823,365   831,486

Jul-21     2,796     2,802     2,756     2,791     2,810     2,780       -30   168,141   125,096

Sep-21     2,771     2,777     2,714     2,758     2,777     2,741       -36   176,490   308,326

Nov-21     2,711     2,713     2,660     2,696     2,711     2,684       -27    89,193    77,119

Jan-22     2,703     2,712     2,666     2,702     2,704     2,688       -16     8,494    11,438

Soymeal

Turnover: 2,326,062 lots, or 82.10 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.         Vol        Open

Settle                                    Interest

Mar-21     3,651     3,769     3,632     3,759     3,651     3,669        18       3,691      10,537

May-21     3,495     3,596     3,467     3,591     3,500     3,527        27   1,604,197   1,366,996

Jul-21     3,435     3,544     3,414     3,541     3,437     3,471        34     129,881     128,776

Aug-21     3,520     3,619     3,495     3,615     3,522     3,553        31      29,588      25,688

Sep-21     3,530     3,628     3,501     3,625     3,530     3,558        28     504,548     876,883

Nov-21     3,472     3,585     3,463     3,575     3,486     3,511        25       3,989       3,597

Dec-21     3,451     3,554     3,445     3,533     3,487     3,491         4          73         404

Jan-22     3,405     3,499     3,375     3,496     3,395     3,431        36      50,095      68,222

Palm Oil

Turnover: 574,090 lots, or 41.57 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Mar-21     7,724     7,892     7,688     7,850     7,724     7,742        18       279       977

Apr-21     7,482     7,636     7,454     7,592     7,488     7,566        78       380     4,485

May-21     7,248     7,428     7,216     7,360     7,280     7,316        36   493,949   364,774

Jun-21     7,072     7,266     7,044     7,204     7,072     7,150        78     4,344    22,121

Jul-21     6,918     7,056     6,864     7,002     6,896     6,974        78       111     2,108

Aug-21     6,860     6,900     6,860     6,900     6,780     6,886       106         4         6

Sep-21     6,668     6,828     6,652     6,766     6,698     6,742        44    72,196    88,149

Oct-21     6,578     6,728     6,556     6,694     6,568     6,656        88     1,491       961

Nov-21     6,584     6,584     6,584     6,584     6,534     6,584        50         2        12

Dec-21     6,598     6,770     6,572     6,614     6,548     6,638        90        11        22

Jan-22     6,450     6,616     6,440     6,584     6,486     6,534        48     1,319     3,169

Feb-22     6,470     6,544     6,470     6,544     6,384     6,512       128         4         2

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 594,690 lots, or 49.33 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Mar-21     8,650     9,240     8,650     9,004     8,828     8,744       -84       397       842

May-21     8,380     8,526     8,338     8,466     8,374     8,426        52   476,367   486,473

Jul-21     7,882     8,104     7,882     8,030     7,890     7,992       102    14,373    37,425

Aug-21     7,778     7,950     7,758     7,888     7,774     7,872        98     3,202     5,570

Sep-21     7,650     7,818     7,636     7,750     7,654     7,724        70    97,552   159,741

Nov-21     7,606     7,730     7,568     7,646     7,578     7,652        74       553       992

Dec-21     7,646     7,696     7,646     7,680     7,566     7,678       112         8        64

Jan-22     7,548     7,684     7,520     7,606     7,532     7,620        88     2,238     6,451

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322