2021 Winter Melt Begins. The Corn & Ethanol Report 02/23/2021

We start off the day with Redbook YoY & MoM (20/Feb) at 7:55 A.M., S&P/Case-Shiller Home Piece MoM & YoY (DEC), House Price Index MoM & YoY (DEC) at 8:00 A.M., CB Consumer Confidence (FEB), Fed Chair Powell Testimony and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (FEB) at 9:00 A.M., 119-Day and 42-Day Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 2-Year Note Auction and 52-Week Bill Auction at 12:00 P.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.

On the Corn Front the key is watching weekly export inspections which must maintain a strong pace. Looking at export sales on the books at this point, for corn is now at 89% of the total USDA estimate for the year. The market is proving it is always right even though the USDA numbers were interesting. Corn and Soybean acreage numbers being thrown around by farmers, with the farmers planting the seed in the head, If we have a good growing year, we will have record supply and plenty to export. In the overnight electronic session, the March corn is currently trading at 555 which is 4 cents higher. The trading range has been 557 ½ to 550.

On the Ethanol Front the EPA changes stand, sides with ethanol industry over biofuels waivers granted to oil refineries under President Donald J. Trump’s administration. There were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session. The April contract settled at 1.729 and is again not showing a market this early with Open Interest at 43 contracts.

On the Crude Oil Front, we have the API’s tonight. And we get scary news reported by Tsvetana Paraskova with OILPRICE.com that Saudi Arabia and Russia are headed for another clash on OPEC+ oil cuts. OPEC’s top producer and de facto leader Saudi Arabia would likely prefer the March 3-4 meetings to decide that the OPEC+ coalition holds production flat in April, Bloomberg reports. Russia is now a bigger power-player picking up Keystone XL business as we waved bye-bye to great jobs and business. It is still very clear in everyone related to oil how devastating of a blow in March and we got back in balance. Let’s not have negative history repeat itself. In the overnight electronic session, the April crude oil is currently trading at 6206 which is 36 points higher. The trading range has been 6300 to 6152.

On the Natural Gas Front tomorrow is Last Trading Day on the March contract. The market may pull back with temperatures heading above freezing. And we could see peaks and valleys rallies and breaks as Texas works back to get back on-line. This is the perfect time to bring up these two scenarios’, when your government is selling and or high-pressured sales tactics to use 3^rd rate wares in solar and wind power while natural gas is the only proven staple to provide electricity other than coal when the power grid is stressed to the max but survives because it can restart while you are waiting for the sun to come out or the wind to blow. In the overnight electronic session, the April natural gas is currently trading at 2.976 which is .060 lower. The trading range has been 2.932 to 2.860.

Have A Great Trading Day!
Dan Flynn

Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374