About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON       

General Comments:  Futures were higher for the week and made a new weekly chart high close once again.  The weekly export sales report on Friday showed solid demand for US Cotton despite the Lunar New Year holiday and the demand has been strong even with the Coronavirus around and getting worse.  The overall weaker US Dollar has helped demand ideas as well although the Dollar has started to firm recently.  The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products.  The USDA Outlook Forum showed a tight scenario for next year with ending stocks at just 3.8 million bales.

Overnight News:  The Delta will get mostly isolated showers and below normal temperatures and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures.  Texas will have scattered showers and much below temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 85.59 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 100,326 bales, from 100,326 bales yesterday.  ICE said that 18 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 18 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 9340 May.  Support is at 9000, 8910, and 8790 May, with resistance of 9120, 9180 and 9240 May.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #033661                                                              Open Interest is   290,036

: Positions                                                                               :

:   78,256     8,576    52,289    49,576   213,423    88,289     7,925   268,411   282,213:   21,625     7,823

: Changes from: February 9, 2021           (Change in open interest:      -4,303)         :

:   -1,327      -850     3,388    -6,865    -5,666       993    -1,496    -3,811    -4,623:     -492       320

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     27.0       3.0      18.0      17.1      73.6      30.4       2.7      92.5      97.3:      7.5       2.7

: Total Traders:   296          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:      130        38        79        49        62        48        23       261       178:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ closed lower as the cold weather might have damaged production potential in Texas and Mexico is already part of the price.  Some damage to leaves and open flowers was possible, but ideas are that the overall damage was minor.  Moderate temperatures were reported in Florida last week.  The weather in Florida is good with a few showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation.  Showers are falling in Brazil now and crop conditions are called good.  Mexican crop conditions otherwise are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production.  It is dry in northern Mexican growing areas.

Overnight News:  Florida should get scattered showers.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 106.00 and 101.00 March.  Support is at 108.00, 103.00, and 100.00 March, with resistance at 112.00, 115.00, and 117.00 March.

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)                               :

CFTC Code #040701                                                    Open Interest is    15,177                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:    5,825     8,308     1,500       107         1     1,503     1,542         4       908       678     1,898 :

: Changes from:     February 9, 2021                                                                           :

:       11       139       102         2         1      -151      -103        -2        25       -29       -98 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     38.4      54.7       9.9       0.7       0.0       9.9      10.2       0.0       6.0       4.5      12.5 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    63                     :

:       18        12         5         .         .         7        11         .        13         5        10 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

 

COFFEE   

General Comments:  Futures were higher for the week in New York on ideas of less offer from Brazil and a little higher in London as Vietnam producers stopped selling during the Tet holiday.  Tet is now over but selling is slow to resume.  There are reports of good weather in Vietnam for the harvest.  Indonesia has had good weather but has little coffee to sell now.  Brazil has been dry for flowering and initial fruit development and it has been warm and dry in recent times.  Rains are now falling that could be very beneficial.  Vietnam has harvested its production under mostly dry conditions.  Central America is also drier for harvesting.  Good growing conditions are reported in Colombia and Peru.  The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels.  Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.734 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 120.73 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions.  Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.  ICE said that 74 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 192 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 134.00 and 141.00 May.  Support is at 126.00, 124.00, and 121.00 May, and resistance is at 131.00, 134.00 and 137.00 May.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1400 and 1430 May.   Support is at 1370, 1350, and 1320 May, and resistance is at 1400, 1420, and 1430 May.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #083731                                                              Open Interest is   293,289

: Positions                                                                               :

:   43,149    23,695    71,404    77,624   177,132    88,719    14,055   280,896   286,286:   12,393     7,003

: Changes from: February 9, 2021           (Change in open interest:     -32,865)         :

:     -417      -118   -16,609   -14,247   -16,329      -243       -71   -31,516   -33,127:   -1,349       262

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     14.7       8.1      24.3      26.5      60.4      30.2       4.8      95.8      97.6:      4.2       2.4

: Total Traders:   421          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:      156        70       125       116       118        46        21       373       289:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options 

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 02/16/2021

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

Processor/User

OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

150,732       65,486        66,685        16,447     14,689        2,851

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

100%          43.4%         44.2%         10.9%      9.7%          1.9%

Number of Traders in Each Category

146            48            40           13          4            10

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Managed Money                       Other Reportables

Long          Short       Spreading   Long         Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

19,074         28,109        3,196     10,312        3,992          27,149

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

12.7%          18.6%         2.1%      6.8%          2.6%           18.0%

Number of Traders in Each Category

22            18            13        14            15              21

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

Long        Short

=======================

6,217        4,06

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

4.1%         2.7%

 

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York and London closed higher and both markets made new highs for the move and new contract highs.  Ideas of increased demand are still around as traditional buyers have been active.  Rains were reported again in Brazil.  It has been raining in south central Brazil and the production of cane is over for the season.  Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year.  India is producing less Sugar and more Ethanol.  Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.  The EU Sugar crop is less this year as is the crop in Russia.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1770 and 1830 May.  Support is at 1670, 1610, and 1580 May, and resistance is at 1720, 1730, and 1780 May.  Trends in London are up with no objectives.  Support is at 475.00, 461.00, and 458.00 May, and resistance is at 488.00, 494.00, and 500.00 May.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #080732                                                              Open Interest is 1,273,244

: Positions                                                                               :

:  190,399    45,681   211,284   431,092   909,851   324,771    58,087 1,157,545 1,224,902:  115,699    48,342

: Changes from: February 9, 2021           (Change in open interest:     -82,644)         :

:    6,127     1,059   -41,963   -38,028   -27,839    -3,901   -11,300   -77,765   -80,043:   -4,879    -2,601

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     15.0       3.6      16.6      33.9      71.5      25.5       4.6      90.9      96.2:      9.1       3.8

: Total Traders:   255          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:       82        35        61        76        80        42        21       229       174:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options 

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 02/16/2021

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

Processor/User

OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

==============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

90,074        34,810        78,814        10,689     3,071         1,253

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

100%          38.6%         87.5%         11.9%      3.4%          1.4%

Number of Traders in Each Category

105            30            41            8          5            7

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Managed Money                      Other Reportables

Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

31,543          997          1,984     2,188        533             1,457

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

35.0%          1.1%          2.2%      2.4%         0.6%            1.6%

Number of Traders in Each Category

34            3             7         4            6               6

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

Long        Short

=======================

6,150        1,965

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

6.8%         2.2%

 

COCOA                

General Comments:  New York and London closed lower on ideas of big supplies available to the market.  The ICCO said that the Cocoa surplus would be about 100,000 tons this year.  Ivory Coast raised its main crop production estimate by 100,000 tons to 1.65 million tons.  There were reports of demand for Cocoa in Ivory Coast, although the reports noted that there is a lot to sell there.  The grind data has been weaker again implying less demand for chocolate.  Ivory Coast has not been shipping as exporters have asked to hold off.  There are ideas of big supplies at origin.  Wire reports say that Ivory Coast has abandoned its tax scheme and instead is offering a discount to get Cocoa moving again.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.544 million bags.  ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 62 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2420, 2370, and 2250 May, with resistance at 2460, 2490, and 2520 May.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1630, 1610, and 1580 May, with resistance at 1660, 1680, and 1700 May.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #073732                                                              Open Interest is   229,387

: Positions                                                                               :

:   35,176    31,777    51,712    67,092   127,534    62,349    12,687   216,330   223,710:   13,057     5,676

: Changes from: February 9, 2021           (Change in open interest:        -270)         :

:   -1,088     2,423      -763     2,194    -1,936       138       562       481       286:     -751      -556

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     15.3      13.9      22.5      29.2      55.6      27.2       5.5      94.3      97.5:      5.7       2.5

: Total Traders:   213          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:       73        43        59        47        37        37        14       185       130:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options 

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 02/16/2021

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

Processor/User

OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

==============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

279,522       169,964       194,621       22,534     17,511       12,081

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

100%          60.8%         69.6%         8.1%       6.3%          4.3%

Number of Traders in Each Category

126            48            45            9          6            9

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Managed Money                      Other Reportables

Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

19,388         2,761        14,359     1,865        560            34,666

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

6.9%          1.0%          5.1%      0.7%         0.2%           12.4%

Number of Traders in Each Category

22            9             14        13           8               21

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

Long        Short

=======================

4,665        2,963

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

1.7%         1.1%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322