About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT          

General Comments Wheat markets were higher last week but held to recent trading ranges.  USDA issued their first look at the next crop year at the Outlook Forum late in the week.  Planted Wheat area was less than expected, implying that Spring Wheat area could be less this Summer.  The demand side of the table was in line with expectations and ending stocks for the coming year were estimated at 698 million bushels, from 836 million for the current year.  Futures were higher as the threat of Winterkill in the western Great Plains appeared for the past week.  Temperatures dropped below 0F in many areas and that is cold enough to kill an unprotected crop.  The actual damage will take some time to see under warmer temperatures and it might take until harvest to see the full effects of the recent extreme cold.  Most traders now expect less or no Wheat offers from Black Sea ports after the middle of March.  No one is sure about Russia and its new tax regime.  Russia is raising its export taxes in mid March but farmers there are not selling.  The Russian government move has apparently caused lower prices internally and farmers have reportedly pulled back for the market.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers.  Temperatures should be below normal.  Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will be below normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 638, 632, and 624 March, with resistance at 660, 669, and 673 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 625, 620, and 608 March, with resistance at 640, 644, and 649 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 632, 614, and 610 March, and resistance is at 636, 638, and 640 March.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #001602                                                              Open Interest is   561,553

: Positions                                                                               :

:   76,716    81,884   181,910    70,315   202,919   193,315    43,714   522,256   510,427:   39,297    51,126

: Changes from: February 9, 2021           (Change in open interest:       3,645)         :

:    1,645      -800       974    -6,892       871     8,766     2,180     4,493     3,225:     -848       420

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     13.7      14.6      32.4      12.5      36.1      34.4       7.8      93.0      90.9:      7.0       9.1

: Total Traders:   375          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:       91       101       123        76       116        45        18       288       293:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #001612                                                              Open Interest is   251,963

: Positions                                                                               :

:   54,916    22,713    57,534    36,606   139,245    78,325    10,089   227,381   229,581:   24,582    22,382

: Changes from: February 9, 2021           (Change in open interest:       3,123)         :

:   -1,605     1,114     3,116      -611    -1,832     2,079       525     2,979     2,922:      144       201

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     21.8       9.0      22.8      14.5      55.3      31.1       4.0      90.2      91.1:      9.8       8.9

: Total Traders:   250          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:       62        39        57        67        93        36        18       192       186:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                     :

CFTC Code #001626                                                    Open Interest is    93,707                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:   44,650    65,231     3,890       190     1,413    15,182     2,970     3,184     4,324     3,659     5,048 :

: Changes from:     February 9, 2021                                                                           :

:    2,311     1,078        23       128        77      -635        86      -745    -1,069        48      -442 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     47.6      69.6       4.2       0.2       1.5      16.2       3.2       3.4       4.6       3.9       5.4 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   119                     :

:       51        45         7         .         4        18         6         5        13         7        14 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

BLACK SEA WHEAT FINANCIAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   50 Metric Tons                                            :

CFTC Code #00160F                                                    Open Interest is    15,831                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:    7,983    10,394       399       260       250     4,977     3,846         0     1,150       230         0 :

: Changes from:     February 9, 2021                                                                           :

:      212      -527       250       -50      -250     1,700     2,872      -787       650         0         0 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     50.4      65.7       2.5       1.6       1.6      31.4      24.3       0.0       7.3       1.5       0.0 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    26                     :

:        9        15         .         .         .         5         .         0         .         .         0 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

 

RICE  

General Comments:  Rice was higher last week after a short covering rally on Friday.  The export sales report was strong, but featured sales to Japan and South Korea.  Long Grain demand was more limited.  The cash market has not felt any increased demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side.  Exports had been strong until recently and were moderate last week.  Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states.  Asian and Mercosur markets have firmed recently and were mixed last week but this has not yet affected the US world price that much.  The Outlook Conference estimates for next year showed reduced planted and harvested area and reduced production.  Domestic demand weas cut quite a bit and export demand was cut a little bit so ending stocks were left relatively high at 39.3 million cwt and a stocks to use ratio of 16.3.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal.

Chart Analysis:   Trends are down with no objectives.  Support is at 1275, 1260, and 1253 March, with resistance at 1297, 1310, and 1318 March.

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS)                                            :

CFTC Code #039601                                                    Open Interest is    10,255                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:    4,517     8,226       103         0         0     2,391       467         0       785       716       306 :

: Changes from:     February 9, 2021                                                                           :

:      183      -204         1         0         0      -376         0         0      -113       -46        59 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     44.0      80.2       1.0       0.0       0.0      23.3       4.6       0.0       7.7       7.0       3.0 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    45                     :

:        9        15         .         0         0         9         .         0         6         6         5 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

 

CORN AND OATS:  

General Comments:  Corn closed a little higher and Oats were a little lower with Corn up a bit on South American weather and the latest estimates from the USDA Outlook Conference.  It has rained in central and parts of northern Brazil in the last week, but farmers were able to harvest Soybeans and plant the Winter Corn around the precipitation.  Southern Brazil and Argentina are now drier and Corn in Argentina could be stressed.  The main crop harvest has started in parts of Brazil, but progress will be slow due to the late planting dates due too dry conditions earlier in the year.  The second crop of Corn planting is also being delayed and yield estimates for South American Corn have been reduced.  The Outlook Conference estimates from USDA were in line with general trade ideas.  Ending stocks were estimated at 1.552 billion bushels for a stocks to use ratio of 10.3.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 537, 535, and 533 March, and resistance is at 555, 558, and 568 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 345, 341, and 335 March, and resistance is at 357, 360, and 368 March.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #002602                                                              Open Interest is 2,664,969

: Positions                                                                               :

:  448,150    62,156   646,264   750,671 1,521,835   590,753   188,677 2,435,838 2,418,933:  229,131   246,036

: Changes from: February 9, 2021           (Change in open interest:     -28,418)         :

:   -3,592    -3,034     6,630   -21,409   -21,623      -536    -7,470   -18,906   -25,497:   -9,512    -2,921

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     16.8       2.3      24.3      28.2      57.1      22.2       7.1      91.4      90.8:      8.6       9.2

: Total Traders:   967          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:      246       118       225       414       488        50        25       805       778:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                                   :

CFTC Code #004603                                                    Open Interest is     4,525                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:      960     3,414       107         0         0     1,014         0         0       583        15        31 :

: Changes from:     February 9, 2021                                                                           :

:     -127      -320         1         0         0       140         0         0         0        -5         1 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     21.2      75.4       2.4       0.0       0.0      22.4       0.0       0.0      12.9       0.3       0.7 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    26                     :

:       10         9         .         0         0         8         0         0         .         .         . :

—————————————————————————————————————-

 

SOYBEANS 

General Comments:  Soybeans closed higher and Soybean Meal closed lower.  Selling came on ideas that the impending Brazil harvest will kill current demand for US Soybeans.  Demand was less last week in the weekly export data, but still relatively strong due to harvest delays in Brazil.  The harvest has been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems as well.  Rains are coming to an end in some areas so harvest activities have increased.  China has been buying for this year and next year here but also in South America.  The strong demand for exports and for domestic use means there is little room for error and that the US could even come close to running out of Soybeans to sell.  The USDA Outlook Conference highlighted estimates that the situation for Soybeans could stay tight next year.  Ending stocks were estimated at just 145 million bushels for a stocks to use ratio of 3.2.

Overnight News:    

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1366, 1342, and 1337 March, and resistance is at 1395, 1407, and 1409 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.   Support is at 418.00, 417.00, and 408.00 March, and resistance is at 433.00, 437.00, and 444.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 4960 March.  Support is at 4620, 4550, and 4520 March, with resistance at 4800, 4850, and 4860 March.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #005602                                                              Open Interest is 1,294,632

: Positions                                                                               :

:  174,297    32,372   379,161   380,765   681,930   272,709   110,889 1,206,932 1,204,352:   87,701    90,280

: Changes from: February 9, 2021           (Change in open interest:     -27,292)         :

:  -17,835    -1,319       200    -6,331   -21,987     4,486    -3,053   -19,479   -26,159:   -7,813    -1,133

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     13.5       2.5      29.3      29.4      52.7      21.1       8.6      93.2      93.0:      6.8       7.0

: Total Traders:   653          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:      211        90       198       212       263        51        23       541       518:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #007601                                                              Open Interest is   626,841

: Positions                                                                               :

:   97,333    21,616   157,889   161,295   389,866   162,268    32,374   578,785   601,745:   48,057    25,096

: Changes from: February 9, 2021           (Change in open interest:      25,429)         :

:      875    -1,043    11,144    10,774    10,234     1,786     4,616    24,580    24,951:      849       478

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     15.5       3.4      25.2      25.7      62.2      25.9       5.2      92.3      96.0:      7.7       4.0

: Total Traders:   337          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:      110        44        83       100        98        43        17       290       218:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #026603                                                              Open Interest is   497,653

: Positions                                                                               :

:   63,735    14,730    98,971   157,350   323,484   116,223    29,791   436,279   466,976:   61,373    30,677

: Changes from: February 9, 2021           (Change in open interest:         -60)         :

:   -3,227     2,255    -2,837     7,210    -1,500     6,129     3,005     7,275       923:   -7,335      -983

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     12.8       3.0      19.9      31.6      65.0      23.4       6.0      87.7      93.8:     12.3       6.2

: Total Traders:   285          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:       75        36        68       110       107        37        16       257       203:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL          

General Comments:  Palm Oil closed higher on ideas of tight supplies.  The export news has been good with February exports holding to stronger levels than January.  The concern is that the higher price with the higher tax would scare away would be buyers.  The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields.  Wet weather has caused even more delays.  Soybean Oil and Canola closed higher for the week on ideas of increasing demand, and Canola also got talk of tight supplies due to reduced offers from farmers and reduced production earlier in the year.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are up with no objectives.  Support is at 745.00, 730.00, and 720.00 March, with resistance at 781.00, 784.00, and 790.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 3650, 3590, and 3540 April, with resistance at 3800, 3860, and 3920 April.

 

DJ Malaysia Feb. 1-20 Palm Oil Exports 697,794 Tons, Up 10%, AmSpec Says 

Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Feb. 1-20 period are estimated 10% higher from the previous month at 697,794 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Saturday.

The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:

(All figures in metric tons)

Feb 1-20       Jan 1-20

RBD Palm Olein       224,230         179,500

RBD Palm Oil          54,115          45,905

RBD Palm Stearin      48,513          49,370

Crude Palm Oil       128,961         144,492

Total*               697,794         632,827

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S.   (20 Metric Tonnes)                                                                 :

CFTC Code #135731                                                    Open Interest is   254,809                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:  160,290   194,447        81     6,046     6,265    47,381     3,119     8,568     7,793    13,503    21,363 :

: Changes from:     February 9, 2021                                                                           :

:    4,296    -1,750    -4,527       472        62       948        76    -1,223    -1,651       165     1,265 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     62.9      76.3       0.0       2.4       2.5      18.6       1.2       3.4       3.1       5.3       8.4 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   274                     :

:       57        51         .         6         5        53         7         9        68        49        51 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

 

Midwest Weather Forecast:   More rain and snow today and then over the weekend.  Temperatures should average below normal.

 

 

 

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February +80 Mar +148 Mar +105 Mar +70 Mar
March +73 Mar +105 Mar +73 Mar
April +74 May +100 Mar +74 May
         
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322