About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher as buying returned to the market as the threat of Winterkill in the western Great Plains could be serious. Temperatures were reported to drop below 0F in many areas and that is cold enough to kill an unprotected crop. In fact, it was just above 0F as far south as southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. A much as 5% to 10% of the area did not have good moisture or snow cover for protection. Most traders now expect less or no Wheat offers from Black Sea ports after the middle of March. No one is sure about Russia and its new tax regime. Russia is raising its export taxes in mid March but farmers there are not selling. The Russian government move has apparently caused lower prices internally and farmers have reportedly pulled back for the market.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 638, 632, and 624 March, with resistance at 677, 688, and 692 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 625, 620, and 608 March, with resistance at 640, 644, and 649 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 632, 614, and 610 March, and resistance is at 638, 640, and 644 March.

DJ USDA FORUM: U.S. Wheat Supply, Demand And Price – Feb 19
ARLINGTON, Va. (Dow Jones)–Data from 2021 Agricultural Outlook Forum,
February 19, 2021.
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 1/ 2021/22 2/

Area planted (mil. ac.) 47.8 45.5 44.3 45.0
Area harvested 39.6 37.4 36.7 37.2
Yield (bu./ac.) 47.6 51.7 49.7 49.1
Production (mil. bu.) 1,885 1,932 1,826 1,827
Beginning stocks 1,099 1,080 1,028 836
Imports 135 105 120 130
Supply 3,119 3,117 2,974 2,793
Feed & residual 88 101 125 140
Food & seed 1,013 1,022 1,028 1,030
Total domestic use 1,101 1,123 1,153 1,170
Exports 937 965 985 925
Total use 2,039 2,089 2,138 2,095
Ending stocks 1,080 1,028 836 698
Stocks/use (percent) 53.0 49.2 39.1 33.3
Season-avg. farm price ($/bu.) 5.16 4.58 5.00 5.50

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower in quiet trading. Traders are not looking for much new as demand is routine or less on the domestic side but better on the export side. Unsold Rice is reported to be held in Arkansas right now. The cash market has not felt any increased demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side. Exports had been strong until recently and were moderate last week. Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states. Asian and Mercosur markets were mixed last week.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1260, 1253, and 1240 March, with resistance at 1280, 1290, and 1297 March.

DJ USDA FORUM: U.S. Rice Supply, Demand And Price – Feb 19
ARLINGTON, Va. (Dow Jones)–Data from 2021 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum,
February 19, 2021
All Rice 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 1/ 2021/22 2/
Area planted (mil. ac.) 2.95 2.55 3.04 2.70
Area harvested 2.91 2.48 2.99 2.65
Yield (pounds/ac.) 7,692 7,473 7,619 7,657
Production (mil. cwt) 223.8 185.1 227.6 202.9
Beginning stocks 29.4 44.9 28.7 39.4
Imports 29.0 37.3 36.2 39.0
Supply 282.2 267.3 292.4 281.3
Total domestic & residual use 143.8 144.4 160.0 151.0
Exports 93.6 94.2 93.0 91.0
Total use 237.3 238.6 253.0 242.0
Ending stocks 44.9 28.7 39.4 39.3
Stocks/use (percent) 18.9 12.0 15.6 16.3
Season avg. farm price ($/cwt.) 12.60 13.60 13.40 13.60
1/ Acreage, yield, production, and beginning stocks are estimates
from the National Agricultural Statistics Service. Imports,
use, ending stocks, and season-average farm price are projections
from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand estimates,
February 9, 2021. 2/ Projections based on the analysis by USDA’s
Rice Interagency Commodity Estimates
Committee.
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn and Oats were a little lower in consolidation trading with traders reacting to South America and its harvest weather. It has rained in central and parts of northern Brazil in the last week, but farmers were able to harvest Soybeans and plant the Winter Corn around the precipitation. Southern Brazil and Argentina are now drier. The main crop harvest has started in parts of Brazil, but progress will be slow due to the late planting dates due too dry conditions earlier in the year. The second crop of Corn planting is also being delayed and yield estimates for South American Corn have been reduced. The Outlook Forum estimated Corn planted area this year for the US at 92 million acres.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 546, 537, and 525 March, and resistance is at 555, 558, and 568 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 345, 341, and 335 March, and resistance is at 354, 360, and 368 March.

DJ USDA FORUM: U.S. Corn Supply, Demand And Price – Feb 19
ARLINGTON, Va. (Dow Jones)–Data from 2021 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum,
February 19, 2021.
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21/1 2021/22/2
Area planted (mil. ac.) 88.9 89.7 90.8 92.0
Area harvested 81.3 81.3 82.5 84.4
Yield (bu./ac.) 176.4 167.5 172.0 179.5
Production (mil. bu.) 14,340 13,620 14,182 15,150
Beginning stocks 2,140 2,221 1,919 1,502
Imports 28 42 25 25
Supply 16,509 15,883 16,127 16,677
Feed & residual 5,429 5,903 5,650 5,850
Ethanol3/ 5,378 4,852 4,950 5,200
Total food, seed & industrial 6,793 6,282 6,375 6,625
Total domestic use 12,222 12,185 12,025 12,475
Exports 2,066 1,778 2,600 2,650
Total use 14,288 13,963 14,625 15,125
Ending stocks 2,221 1,919 1,502 1,552
Stocks/use (percent) 15.5 13.7 10.3 10.3
Season-avg. farm price ($/bu.) 3.61 3.56 4.30 4.20
1/ Acreage, yield, production, and beginning stocks are estimates
from the National Agricultural Statistics Service. Imports, use,
ending stocks, and season-average farm price are projections from
the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, February 9, 2021.
2/ Projections based on analysis by USDA s Feed Grains Interagency
Commodity Estimates Committee.
3/ Corn used to produce ethanol and by-products including,
distillers grains, corn gluten feed, corn gluten meal, and corn oil.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower on reports of weaker cash marke4t offers in Brazil when compared to those from the US despite the delayed harvest, but Soybean Oil was higher. Some selling came on ideas that the impending Brazil harvest will kill current demand for US Soybeans. The harvest has been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems as well. Rains are coming to an end in some areas so harvest activities have increased. Prices are quoted 30 cents below those in the US. China has been buying for this year and next year here but also in South America. There is little sign the US price has rationed demand but rationing could start soon with the Brazil harvest finally moving. The strong demand for exports and for domestic use means there is little room for error and that the US could even come close to running out of Soybeans to sell.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1366, 1342, and 1337 March, and resistance is at 1395, 1407, and 1409 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 418.00, 417.00, and 408.00 March, and resistance is at 433.00, 437.00, and 444.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 4960 March. Support is at 4620, 4550, and 4520 March, with resistance at 4760, 4800, and 4860 March.

DJ USDA FORUM: U.S. Soybean Supply, Demand And Price – Feb 19
ARLINGTON, Va. (Dow Jones)–Data from 2019 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum,
February 19, 2021.
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 /1 2021/22 /2
Area planted (mil. ac.) 89.2 76.1 83.1 90.0
Area harvested 87.6 74.9 82.3 89.1
Yield (bu./ac.) 50.6 47.4 50.2 50.8
Production (mil. bu.) 4,428 3,552 4,135 4,525
Beginning stocks 438 909 525 120
Imports 14 15 35 35
Supply 4,880 4,476 4,695 4,680
Crush 2,092 2,165 2,200 2,210
Seed and Residual 127 105 125 124
Total domestic use 2,219 2,270 2,325 2,334
Exports 1,752 1,682 2,250 2,200
Total use 3,971 3,952 4,575 4,534
Ending stocks 909 525 120 145
Stocks/use (percent) 22.9 13.3 2.6 3.2
Season-avg. farm price ($/bu.) 8.48 8.57 11.15 11.25
1/ Acreage, yield, production, and beginning stocks are estimates
from the National Agricultural Statistics Service. Imports,
crush, exports, ending stocks, and season-average farm price are
projections from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand
Estimates report, February 9, 2021.
2/ Projections based on analysis by the USDA s Oilseeds Interagency
Commodity Estimates Committee.
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

DJ USDA FORUM: U.S. Soymeal Supply, Demand And Price – Feb 19
ARLINGTON, Va. (Dow Jones)– Data from 2021 Agricultural Outlook Forum, February 19, 2021.
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 /1 2021/22 /2
Production (thou. short tons) 48,814 51,100 51,959 52,125
Beginning stocks 555 402 341 350
Imports 683 639 600 550
Supply 50,052 52,142 52,900 53,025
Domestic Use 36,212 37,723 38,300 38,725
Exports 13,438 14,077 14,250 13,900
Total use 49,650 51,800 52,550 52,625
Ending stocks 402 341 350 400
Avg. price ($/short ton) 3/ 308.28 299.50 400.00 390.00

DJ USDA FORUM: U.S. Soyoil Supply, Demand And Price – Feb 19
ARLINGTON, Va. (Dow Jones)–Data from 2021 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum,
February 19, 2021.
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 1/ 2021/2022 2/
Production (mil. lbs.) 24,197 24,912 25,565 25,700
Beginning stocks 1,995 1,775 1,849 1,714
Imports 397 319 350 450
Supply 26,590 27,006 27,764 27,864
Domestic Use 22,874 22,319 23,300 23,800
Biodiesel 3/ 7,863 7,858 8,300 7,800
Food, Feed, Other Industrial 15,011 14,461 15,000 16,000
Exports 1,940 2,839 2,750 2,450
Total use 24,815 25,158 26,050 26,250
Ending stocks 1,775 1,849 1,714 1,614
Avg. price (cents/lb.) 4/ 28.3 29.7 40.0 40.0
1/ Beginning stocks, production, imports, use, ending stocks, and average
price are projections from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand
Estimates, February 9, 2021.
2/ Projections based on analysis by the USDA’s Oilseeds Interagency
Commodity Estimates Committee.
3/ Reflects only biodiesel made from methyl ester as reported by the
U.S. Energy Information Administration.
4/ The average price is for crude soybean oil at Decatur, Illinois.
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher on price action in Chicago, but still felt the effects from ideas that the Malaysian government will raise the export tax in March. Production was down, but demand was down more. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields. Wet weather has caused even more delays. Canola closed lower after making new highs for the move. Ideas are that the price is outstripping the demand. Canola also got talk of tight supplies due to reduced offers from farmers and reduced production earlier in the year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 730.00, 720.00, and 707.00 March, with resistance at 778.00, 784.00, and 790.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 3650, 3590, and 3540 April, with resistance at 3800, 3860, and 3920 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast: More rain and snow today and then over the weekend. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February +80 Mar +148 Mar +105 Mar +70 Mar
March +73 Mar +105 Mar +73 Mar
April +74 May +100 Mar +74 May
[JS1]

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 18
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for Feb. 18, 2021.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 719.50 -34.10 Mar 21 up 8.40
Basis: Thunder Bay 771.90 45.00 May 21 up 9.30
Basis: Vancouver 791.90 65.00 May 21 up 9.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Feb 18
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 1032.50 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 1027.50 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 922.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 827.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 1035.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 1030.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 925.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 830.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 995.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 935.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 3,930.00 -90.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 299.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0405)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 116,751 lots, or 6.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-21 5,869 5,869 5,735 5,849 5,780 5,801 21 51 2,215
May-21 5,889 5,932 5,836 5,930 5,865 5,894 29 112,370 83,830
Jul-21 5,810 5,832 5,761 5,791 5,769 5,803 34 1,168 2,013
Sep-21 5,616 5,656 5,580 5,615 5,601 5,612 11 2,479 7,251
Nov-21 5,509 5,533 5,484 5,504 5,509 5,509 0 593 1,327
Jan-22 5,444 5,461 5,415 5,429 5,437 5,441 4 90 1,046
Corn
Turnover: 897,573 lots, or 2.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-21 2,832 2,846 2,806 2,841 2,835 2,823 -12 6,657 58,634
May-21 2,822 2,836 2,790 2,815 2,804 2,815 11 616,083 886,743
Jul-21 2,836 2,846 2,802 2,825 2,818 2,828 10 130,017 159,990
Sep-21 2,787 2,797 2,758 2,777 2,771 2,780 9 80,693 326,759
Nov-21 2,710 2,723 2,685 2,706 2,697 2,708 11 58,365 70,052
Jan-22 2,687 2,708 2,669 2,689 2,684 2,691 7 5,758 6,552
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,852,423 lots, or 64.25 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-21 3,656 3,679 3,603 3,617 3,660 3,636 -24 4,715 14,378
May-21 3,482 3,518 3,433 3,462 3,488 3,469 -19 1,281,592 1,343,873
Jul-21 3,423 3,451 3,375 3,401 3,426 3,410 -16 118,358 119,223
Aug-21 3,487 3,525 3,454 3,481 3,499 3,487 -12 40,673 25,752
Sep-21 3,499 3,531 3,463 3,488 3,506 3,490 -16 368,872 818,342
Nov-21 3,442 3,469 3,407 3,436 3,441 3,432 -9 5,080 3,331
Dec-21 3,423 3,434 3,375 3,401 3,412 3,408 -4 19 443
Jan-22 3,349 3,388 3,323 3,350 3,346 3,347 1 33,114 64,382
Palm Oil
Turnover: 670,301 lots, or 47.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-21 – – – 7,286 7,346 7,286 -60 0 0
Mar-21 7,592 7,650 7,544 7,642 7,592 7,596 4 831 1,306
Apr-21 7,400 7,484 7,328 7,436 7,390 7,414 24 1,205 4,585
May-21 7,100 7,254 7,074 7,216 7,138 7,156 18 596,528 357,173
Jun-21 6,870 7,046 6,866 7,006 6,956 6,932 -24 5,036 19,601
Jul-21 6,756 6,850 6,714 6,820 6,752 6,764 12 450 2,164
Aug-21 6,600 6,854 6,600 6,854 6,704 6,728 24 8 6
Sep-21 6,532 6,660 6,528 6,622 6,574 6,590 16 64,612 88,285
Oct-21 6,472 6,542 6,442 6,538 6,472 6,488 16 721 959
Nov-21 6,454 6,528 6,424 6,522 6,418 6,474 56 9 15
Dec-21 6,390 6,522 6,390 6,514 6,438 6,458 20 9 18
Jan-22 6,368 6,420 6,310 6,394 6,372 6,384 12 892 1,776
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 641,477 lots, or 52.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-21 8,744 8,796 8,552 8,762 8,558 8,738 180 348 1,180
May-21 8,168 8,330 8,132 8,282 8,188 8,216 28 543,614 464,492
Jul-21 7,716 7,842 7,694 7,794 7,736 7,758 22 16,407 34,342
Aug-21 7,590 7,706 7,586 7,670 7,614 7,640 26 2,146 5,277
Sep-21 7,482 7,600 7,476 7,564 7,512 7,530 18 76,813 151,655
Nov-21 7,432 7,526 7,424 7,486 7,438 7,448 10 181 897
Dec-21 7,398 7,480 7,326 7,480 7,410 7,408 -2 7 80
Jan-22 7,406 7,506 7,382 7,458 7,412 7,448 36 1,961 5,656
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322