About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON       

General Comments:  Futures were higher once again on demand hopes.  Demand has been strong even with the Coronavirus around and getting worse.  The overall weaker US Dollar has helped demand ideas as well although the Dollar has started to firm recently.  The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products.  Production was rated as less in the most recent USDA production reports so supplies could turn tight if the demand remains strong.  Talk is around regarding the planted area for the next crop.  Producers in Texas might decide to plant Sorghum instead of Cotton due to the relatively strong prices in Sorghum.  Chinese demand for Sorghum has been very strong to cause the higher prices.

Overnight News:  The Delta will get mostly isolated showers and below normal temperatures and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures.  Texas will have scattered showers and much below temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 85.04 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 100,326 bales, from 100,326 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 8670, 8450, and 8270 March, with resistance of 8900, 8960 and 9020 March.

 

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ closed lower as the cold weather might have damaged production potential in Texas and Mexico is already part of the price.  Some damage to leaves and open flowers was possible, but ideas are that the overall damage was minor.  Trends are trying to turn up on the daily and weekly charts.  Freezing temperatures were reported in Florida last week but were not cold enough for a long enough time to damage any crops.  Temperatures are more moderate this week.  The weather in Florida is good with a few showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation.  Showers are falling in Brazil now and crop conditions are called good.  Mexican crop conditions otherwise are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production.

Overnight News:  Florida should get scattered showers.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 116.00 and 119.00 March.  Support is at 111.00, 109.00, and 108.00 March, with resistance at 117.00, 120.00, and 123.00 March.

 

COFFEE   

General Comments:  Futures were higher once again in New York on better demand ideas as Brazilian growing conditions improved and higher in London as Vietnam producers stopped selling during the Tet holiday.  There are reports of good weather in Vietnam for the harvest.  Brazil has been dry for flowering and initial fruit development and it has been warm and dry now.  Rains are now in the forecast for the next week that could be very beneficial.  Vietnam has harvested its production under mostly dry conditions.  Some of those crops are starting to hit the market but farmers are unhappy with the price and are getting ready for Tet.  Central America is also drier for harvesting.  Good growing conditions are reported in Colombia and Peru.  The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels.  Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.739 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 117.95 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions.  Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.  ICE said that 106 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 106 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 122.00, 120.00, and 119.00 March, and resistance is at 126.00, 127.00 and 128.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed.   Support is at 1330, 1310, and 1280 March, and resistance is at 1360, 1390, and 1440 March.

 

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York and London closed a little higher and both markets made new highs for the move and new contract highs.  Ideas of increased demand are still around as traditional buyers have been active.  Rains were reported again in Brazil.  It has been raining in south central Brazil and the production of cane is over for the season.  Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year.  India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but no exports are coming out as the government has been very slow to approve export subsidies.  The crop is getting bigger as the country reported increased production over the last couple of months.  Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.  The EU Sugar crop is less this year as is the crop in Russia.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1770 and 1830 May.  Support is at 1580, 1560, and 1530 May, and resistance is at 1630, 1660, and 1690 May.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 457.00, 451.00, and 446.00 May, and resistance is at 467.00, 470.00, and 473.00 May.

 

COCOA                

General Comments:  New York and London closed lower on ideas of big supplies available to the market.  Chart trends are mixed.  There were reports of demand for Cocoa in Ivory Coast, although the reports noted that there is a lot to sell there.  The grind data has been weaker again implying less demand for chocolate.  Ivory Coast has not been shipping as exporters have asked to hold off.  There are ideas of big supplies at origin.  Wire reports this morning say that Ivory Coast has abandoned its tax scheme and instead is offering a discount to get Cocoa moving again.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.541 million bags.  ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1 contract.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives at 2240 and 2060 May.  Support is at 2440, 2250, and 2200 May, with resistance at 2460, 2490, and 2520 May.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1620, 1610, and 1580 May, with resistance at 1680, 1700, and 1730 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322