Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower as the threat of Winterkill in the western Great Plains had been factored into the price. Temperatures were reported to drop below 0F in many areas and that is cold enough to kill an unprotected crop. In fact, it was just above 0F as far south as southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. A much as 5% to 10% of the area did not have good moisture or snow cover for protection. Most traders now expect less or no Wheat offers from Black Sea ports after the middle of March. No one is sure about Russia and its new tax regime. Russia is raising its export taxes in mid March but farmers there are not selling. The Russian government move has apparently caused lower prices internally and farmers have reportedly pulled back for the market.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 638, 632, and 624 March, with resistance at 661, 664, and 673 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 620, 608, and 605 March, with resistance at 640, 644, and 649 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 614, 610, and 608 March, and resistance is at 638, 640, and 644 March.
General Comments: Rice was a little higher in choppy trading. Unsold Rice is reported to be held in Arkansas right now. The cash market has not felt any increased demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side. Exports had been strong until recently and were moderate last week. Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states. Asian and Mercosur markets were mixed last week.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1260, 1253, and 1240 March, with resistance at 1280, 1290, and 1297 March.
CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn and Oats were a little higher in consolidation trading with traders reacting to South America and its harvest weather. The weekly export sales report was very strong. It has rained in central and parts of northern Brazil in the last week, but farmers were able to harvest Soybeans and plant the Winter Corn around the precipitation. Southern Brazil and Argentina are now drier. The main crop harvest has started in parts of Brazil, but progress will be slow due to the late planting dates due too dry conditions earlier in the year. The second crop of Corn planting is also being delayed and yield estimates for South American Corn have been reduced. Traders are waiting for the Outlook Forum releases of estimates for next year and USDA is exected to show ending stocks above 1.5 billion bushels.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 546, 537, and 525 March, and resistance is at 558, 568, and 577 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 345, 341, and 335 March, and resistance is at 358, 360, and 368 March.
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher on ideas that the Brazil harvest is still very delayed, but Soybean Oil was lower in correction trading. Some selling came on ideas that the impending Brazil harvest will kill current demand for US Soybeans. The harvest has been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems as well. Rains are coming to an end in some areas so harvest activities have increased. China has been buying for this year and next year here but also in South America. There is little sign the US price has rationed demand. Export demand reports were above expectations last week. The strong demand for exports and for domestic use means there is little room for error and that the US could even come close to running out of Soybeans to sell.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1366, 1342, and 1337 March, and resistance is at 1395, 1407, and 1409 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 418.00, 417.00, and 408.00 March, and resistance is at 432.00, 437.00, and 444.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 4960 March. Support is at 4650, 4630, and 4520 March, with resistance at 4760, 4800, and 4860 March.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower on ideas that the Malaysian government will raise the export tax in March. Production was down, but demand was down more. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields. Wet weather has caused even more delays. Canola closed higher in sympathy with the sharp rally in Soybean Oil and on ideas of increasing demand, and Canola also got talk of tight supplies due to reduced offers from farmers and reduced production earlier in the year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 730.00, 720.00, and 707.00 March, with resistance at 742.00, 748.00, and 754.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 3650, 3590, and 3540 April, with resistance at 3800, 3860, and 3920 April.
Midwest Weather Forecast: More rain and snow today and then over the weekend. Temperatures should average below normal.Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322