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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 02/17/2021

By Jack Scoville On February 17, 2021 - 10:15 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report

WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat markets were sharply higher as the threat of Winterkill in the western Great Plains appeared for the past weekend. Temperatures were reported to drop below 0F in many areas and that is cold enough to kill an unprotected crop. In fact, it was just above 0F as far south as southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. A much as 5% to 10% of the area did not have good moisture or snow cover for protection. Most traders now expect less or no Wheat offers from Black Sea ports after the middle of March. No one is sure about Russia and its new tax regime. Russia is raising its export taxes in mid March but farmers there are not selling. The Russian government move has apparently caused lower prices internally and farmers have reportedly pulled back for the market.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 643, 632, and 624 March, with resistance at 660, 664, and 673 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 625, 608, and 605 March, with resistance at 640, 648, and 649 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 624, 614, and 610 March, and resistance is at 638, 640, and 644 March.

RICE

General Comments: Rice was lower again on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation. The Rice is reported to be held in Arkansas right now. The cash market has not felt any increased demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side. Exports had been strong until recently and were moderate last week. Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states. Asian and Mercosur markets were mixed last week.

Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1262, 1260, and 1253 March, with resistance at 1280, 1290, and 1297 March.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Feb 17

USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices

of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields

and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)

and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA

—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate

Milled Value Rough Rough

($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)

Long Grain 17.98 11.50 0.00

Medium/Short Grain 17.61 11.76 0.00

Brokens 11.41 —- —-

DJ Thai Rice Export Prices Rise 1% Amid Shipping Delays — Market Talk

0147 GMT – Thai rice export prices for most grades have risen 1% as exporters continue sourcing white rice to fulfill pending shipments due to delays caused by a shortage of shipping containers, the U.S. Department of Agriculture says. However, export prices of parboiled rice have slid 1% due mainly to a lack of new inquiries. “Most contracted shipments of parboiled rice, particularly to African countries, have been fulfilled by bulk shipments,” the USDA says. (lucy.craymer@wsj.com)

CORN AND OATS:

General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher with traders reacting to South America and its harvest weather. The weekly export sales report was very strong. It has rained in central and parts of northern Brazil in the last week, but farmers were able to harvest Soybeans and plant the Winter Corn around the precipitation. Southern Brazil and Argentina are now drier. The main crop harvest has started in parts of Brazil, but progress will be slow due to the late planting dates due too dry conditions earlier in the year. The second crop of Corn planting is also being delayed and yield estimates for South American Corn have been reduced.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 546, 537, and 525 March, and resistance is at 558, 568, and 577 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 345, 341, and 335 March, and resistance is at 358, 360, and 368 March.

SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed higher on ideas that the Brazil harvest is still very delayed and in response to a very strong NOPA crush figure. Selling came on ideas that the impending Brazil harvest will kill current demand for US Soybeans. The harvest has been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems as well. Rains are coming to an end in some areas so harvest activities have increased. China has been buying for this year and next year here but also in South America. There is little sign the US price has rationed demand. Export demand reports were above expectations last week. The strong demand for exports and for domestic use means there is little room for error and that the US could even come close to running out of Soybeans to sell.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1366, 1342, and 1337 March, and resistance is at 1395, 1407, and 1409 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 418.00, 417.00, and 408.00 March, and resistance is at 432.00, 437.00, and 444.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 4960 March. Support is at 4650, 4630, and 4520 March, with resistance at 4750, 4800, and 4860 March.

DJ Soybean Crush Hits Record High — Market Talk

12:55 ET – January’s soybean crush is the second largest of any month in history, according to data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association. Soybeans crushed in January totaled 184.7M bushels, the second largest amount for any month. The figure is up 1.5M bushels from the previous month and up 7.8M bushels from the same time last year. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Palm Oil rallied on reports of excellent early February exports after MPOB released a bearish January supply and demand report. Production was down, but demand was down more. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields. Wet weather has caused even more delays. Canola closed higher in sympathy with the sharp rally in Soybean Oil and on ideas of increasing demand, and Canola also got talk of tight supplies due to reduced offers from farmers and reduced production earlier in the year.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 730.00, 720.00, and 707.00 March, with resistance at 742.00, 748.00, and 754.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 3650, 3590, and 3540 April, with resistance at 3800, 3860, and 3920 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast: More rain and snow today and tomorrow and then over the weekend. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
	Corn	HRW	SRW	Soybeans	Soybean Meal	Soybean Oil
February	+76 Mar	+148 Mar	+105 Mar	+71 Mar
March	+71 Mar		+105 Mar	+73 Mar
April	+70 May		+100 Mar	+70 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 16

WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures for Feb. 16, 2021.

Source: ICE Futures

CANOLA

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

Spot Price Basis Contract Change

*Par Region 702.90 -27.50 Mar 21 up 12.50

Basis: Thunder Bay 754.20 45.00 May 21 up 8.20

Basis: Vancouver 774.20 65.00 May 21 up 8.20

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or

204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Feb 17

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports