About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT          

General Comments Wheat markets were a little lower last week as a neutral USDA WASDE report brought some long liquidation to the pit.  The report showed ending stocks in line with average estimates from the trade, but the lack of bullish news brought the selling.  Futures recovered late in the week as the threat of Winterkill in the western Great Plains appeared for the past weekend.  Temperatures were forecast to drop below 0F in many areas and that is cold enough to kill an unprotected crop.  A much as 5% to 10% of the area did not have good moisture or snow cover for protection.  Most traders now expect less or no Wheat offers from Black Sea ports after the middle of March.  No one is sure about Russia and its new tax regime.  Russia is raising its export taxes in mid March but farmers there are not selling.  The Russian government move has apparently caused lower prices internally and farmers have reportedly pulled back for the market.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers.  Temperatures should be below normal.  Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will be below normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 624, 614, and 607 March, with resistance at 643, 650, and 660 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 608, 605, and 587 March, with resistance at 626, 640, and 644 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 614, 610, and 608 March, and resistance is at 630, 638, and 640 March.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 09, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #001602                                                              Open Interest is   557,908

: Positions                                                                               :

:   75,071    82,684   180,935    77,207   202,048   184,549    41,534   517,763   507,202:   40,145    50,706

: Changes from: February 2, 2021           (Change in open interest:      -7,829)         :

:   -3,280    -1,149       532    -5,472    -5,323    -1,613    -1,619    -9,832    -7,558:    2,003      -272

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     13.5      14.8      32.4      13.8      36.2      33.1       7.4      92.8      90.9:      7.2       9.1

: Total Traders:   385          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:       90       109       130        72       117        45        18       291       306:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 09, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #001612                                                              Open Interest is   248,840

: Positions                                                                               :

:   56,521    21,599    54,418    37,217   141,078    76,246     9,564   224,402   226,659:   24,438    22,181

: Changes from: February 2, 2021           (Change in open interest:       5,427)         :

:     -761    -3,904     6,549     1,154     3,342    -3,305    -1,225     3,638     4,763:    1,790       665

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     22.7       8.7      21.9      15.0      56.7      30.6       3.8      90.2      91.1:      9.8       8.9

: Total Traders:   251          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:       61        40        58        68        95        34        16       193       186:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 9, 2021

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                     :

CFTC Code #001626                                                    Open Interest is    94,819                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:   42,340    64,153     3,867        62     1,336    15,817     2,884     3,929     5,393     3,612     5,490 :

: Changes from:     February 2, 2021                                                                           :

:    1,082    -1,566       -99      -162        -3    -1,428      -261       677    -1,416       -30       834 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     44.7      67.7       4.1       0.1       1.4      16.7       3.0       4.1       5.7       3.8       5.8 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   115                     :

:       49        44         6         .         4        16         6         5        12         7        13 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 9, 2021

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

BLACK SEA WHEAT FINANCIAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   50 Metric Tons                                            :

CFTC Code #00160F                                                    Open Interest is    14,291                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:    7,771    10,921       149       310       500     3,277       974       787       500       230         0 :

: Changes from:     February 2, 2021                                                                           :

:     -917    -3,710      -345        -5      -850    -1,879       974    -3,287       150         0         0 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     54.4      76.4       1.0       2.2       3.5      22.9       6.8       5.5       3.5       1.6       0.0 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    24                     :

:        9        14         .         .         .         4         .         .         .         .         0 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

 

RICE  

General Comments:  Rice was lower again last week in generally light volume trading on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation.  The cash market has not felt any increased demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side.  Exports had been strong until recently and were moderate last week.  Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states.  Asian and Mercosur markets have firmed recently and were mixed last week but this has not yet affected the US world price that much.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal.

Chart Analysis:   Trends are mixed to down with no objectives.  Support is at 1277, 1263, and 1260 March, with resistance at 1297, 1310, and 1318 March.

Trends are mixed to down with no objectives.  Support is at 1277, 1263, and 1260 March, with resistance at 1297, 1310, and 1318 March.

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 9, 2021

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS)                                            :

CFTC Code #039601                                                    Open Interest is    10,451                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:    4,334     8,430       102         0         0     2,767       467         0       898       762       247 :

: Changes from:     February 2, 2021                                                                           :

:      191       -42         1         0         0       -55         0         0        16         3        65 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     41.5      80.7       1.0       0.0       0.0      26.5       4.5       0.0       8.6       7.3       2.4 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    48                     :

:        8        14         .         0         0        13         .         0         7         7         5 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

 

CORN AND OATS:  

General Comments:  Corn and Oats were a little lower with Corn under heavy selling pressure at midweek due to a bearish USDA WASDE estimate.  USDA did increase export demand and cut ending stocks but not as much as the trade had expected.  The world enduing stocks estimate was well above trade expectations due to larger than expected ending stocks for China.  Many wondered how USDA could leave the Chinese stocks so high when prices there are very high and are indicating very short supplies, but that is what happened and so the market sold off.  The last part of the week was spent watching South America and its harvest weather.  The weekly export sales report was very strong.  It has rained in central and parts of northern Brazil in the last week, but farmers were able to harvest Soybeans and plant the Winter Corn around the precipitation.  Southern Brazil and Argentina are now drier.  The main crop harvest has started in parts of Brazil, but progress will be slow due to the late planting dates due too dry conditions earlier in the year.  The second crop of Corn planting is also being delayed and yield estimates for South American Corn have been reduced.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 525, 515, and 508 March, and resistance is at 546, 558, and 568 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 345, 341, and 335 March, and resistance is at 358, 360, and 368 March.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 09, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #002602                                                              Open Interest is 2,693,387

: Positions                                                                               :

:  451,742    65,190   639,634   772,080 1,543,458   591,289   196,147 2,454,744 2,444,429:  238,643   248,958

: Changes from: February 2, 2021           (Change in open interest:      53,588)         :

:    4,132     1,447    28,237     2,398    20,525     7,966      -550    42,732    49,659:   10,855     3,929

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     16.8       2.4      23.7      28.7      57.3      22.0       7.3      91.1      90.8:      8.9       9.2

: Total Traders:   981          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:      245       127       226       411       492        50        25       805       788:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 9, 2021

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                                   :

CFTC Code #004603                                                    Open Interest is     4,707                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:    1,087     3,734       106         0         0       874         0         0       583        19        30 :

: Changes from:     February 2, 2021                                                                           :

:      -70        17         0         0         0      -188         0         0        -1        -8        -4 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     23.1      79.3       2.3       0.0       0.0      18.6       0.0       0.0      12.4       0.4       0.6 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    24                     :

:        9         9         .         0         0         6         0         0         .         .         . :

—————————————————————————————————————-

 

SOYBEANS 

General Comments:  Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower as speculative long liquidation developed in response to a neutral USDA WASDE estimate report.  US ending stocks were cut to 120 million bushels as expected and the world estimates were generally in line with trade ideas.  The market moved lower as there weas not really any new bullish news for the market.  Selling came on ideas that the impending Brazil harvest will kill current demand for US Soybeans.  The harvest has been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems as well.  Rains are coming to an end in some areas so harvest activities have increased.  China has been buying for this year and next year here but also in South America.  There is little sign the US price has rationed demand.  Export demand reports were above expectations last week.  The strong demand for exports and for domestic use means there is little room for error and that the US could even come close to running out of Soybeans to sell.  Brazil Soybeans are now estimated to be 5% harvested.

Overnight News:    

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1336, 1298, and 1286 March, and resistance is at 1395, 1407, and 1409 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.   Support is at 418.00, 417.00, and 408.00 March, and resistance is at 432.00, 437.00, and 444.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4670 and 4830 March.  Support is at 4630, 4520, and 4430 March, with resistance at 4660, 4690, and 4720 March.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 09, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #005602                                                              Open Interest is 1,321,924

: Positions                                                                               :

:  192,132    33,692   378,961   387,095   703,917   268,223   113,942 1,226,411 1,230,511:   95,514    91,413

: Changes from: February 2, 2021           (Change in open interest:      10,641)         :

:    9,586    -2,803     3,935   -20,533     5,997    13,663     3,204     6,652    10,333:    3,990       309

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     14.5       2.5      28.7      29.3      53.2      20.3       8.6      92.8      93.1:      7.2       6.9

: Total Traders:   664          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:      223        89       193       214       267        48        23       552       516:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 09, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #007601                                                              Open Interest is   601,413

: Positions                                                                               :

:   96,458    22,659   146,745   150,521   379,632   160,481    27,758   554,205   576,794:   47,208    24,618

: Changes from: February 2, 2021           (Change in open interest:      20,035)         :

:    1,818      -982     3,348     7,142    15,211     4,778       879    17,087    18,456:    2,949     1,580

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     16.0       3.8      24.4      25.0      63.1      26.7       4.6      92.2      95.9:      7.8       4.1

: Total Traders:   324          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:      102        43        81        99        99        40        16       277       214:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 09, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #026603                                                              Open Interest is   497,713

: Positions                                                                               :

:   66,962    12,475   101,808   150,141   324,984   110,093    26,786   429,004   466,053:   68,709    31,659

: Changes from: February 2, 2021           (Change in open interest:      13,722)         :

:    2,913        52     3,792     2,273    10,415      -422      -113     8,556    14,146:    5,166      -424

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     13.5       2.5      20.5      30.2      65.3      22.1       5.4      86.2      93.6:     13.8       6.4

: Total Traders:   280          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:       80        30        72       109       108        31        15       251       206:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL          

General Comments:  World vegetable oils markets were firm last week.  Palm Oil rallied on reports of excellent early February exports after MPOB released a bearish January supply and demand report.  Production was down, but demand was down more.  The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields.  Wet weather has caused even more delays.  Palm Oil was a little higher today.  Soybean Oil and Canola closed higher for the week on ideas of increasing demand, and Canola also got talk of tight supplies due to reduced offers from farmers and reduced production earlier in the year.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 707.00, 688.00, and 680.00 March, with resistance at 724.00, 727.00, and 730.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives.  Support is at 3490, 3440, and 3330 April, with resistance at 3660, 3720, and 3800 April.

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 9, 2021

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S.   (20 Metric Tonnes)                                                                 :

CFTC Code #135731                                                    Open Interest is   255,650                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:  155,994   196,198     4,608     5,574     6,204    46,433     3,043     9,791     9,445    13,338    20,098 :

: Changes from:     February 2, 2021                                                                           :

:   -1,820     2,163        53       127     1,121     2,629       527       434     1,347      -127     1,013 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     61.0      76.7       1.8       2.2       2.4      18.2       1.2       3.8       3.7       5.2       7.9 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   291                     :

:       59        57         4         4         4        51         8         9        78        53        51 :

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322