About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON       

General Comments:  Futures were higher in part due to another week of strong export sales.  The overall weaker US Dollar has helped demand ideas as well although the Dollar has started to firm recently.  The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products.  Production was rated as less in the most recent USDA production reports so supplies could turn tight if the demand remains strong.

Overnight News:  The Delta will get mostly isolatered showers and below normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.  Texas will have scattered showers and much below temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 82.48 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 98,378 bales, from 96,810 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 8460, 8270, and 8230 March, with resistance of 8720, 8780 and 8840 March.

 

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ closed a little lower in consolidation trading.  More cold temperatures are possible this week but these temperatures are not expected to damage crops.  The weather in Florida remains good for the crops and the harvest is active.  The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home.  Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is dining out.  The weather in Florida is good with a few showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation.  Showers are falling in Brazil now and crop conditions are called good.  Mexican crop conditions are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production.  The rains now are covering Veracruz and immediate areas, but not other growing areas of Mexico.

Overnight News:  Florida should get periods of showers, especially this weekend.  Temperatures will average above normal.   Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 109.00, 106.00, and 103.00 March, with resistance at 114.00, 117.00, and 120.00 March.

 

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Feb 12 

Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack

In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)

WEEK ENDING:

1/30/2021                                  Corresponding

Current        Week Last

Week           Season

1/30/2021        1/25/2020   % Change

CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK

Carry Over

Bulk                            240.01           297.03     -19.2%

Retail/Institutional              6.14             6.39      -3.9%

Total                           246.15           303.42     -18.9%

Pack

Bulk                              2.84             5.78     -50.8%

Retail/Institutional              0.95             1.44     -33.7%

Total Pack                        3.79             7.21     -47.4%

Reprocessed                      -2.52            -3.49     -27.6%

Pack from Fruit                   1.27             3.73     -65.9%

Receipts & Losses

Net Gain or Loss                  0.05            -0.04      29.1%

Imports – Foreign                 3.95             2.46      60.2%

Domestic Receipts                 0.35             0.18      95.6%

Receipts of Florida Product

from Non-Reporting Entit         0.03             0.00         NA

Chilled OJ used in FCOJ           0.00             1.23    -100.0%

Reprocessed FCTJ                  0.09             0.07      28.8%

Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack

Bulk                            244.79           303.23     -19.3%

Retail/Institutional              7.10             7.83      -9.3%

Total                           251.89           311.06     -19.0%

MOVEMENT

Bulk

Domestic                          3.95             4.86     -18.7%

Exports                           0.55             0.24     127.9%

Total (Bulk)                      4.51             5.11     -11.7%

Retail/Institutional

Domestic                          0.91             0.99      -8.2%

Exports                           0.00             0.00         NC

Total (Retail/Inst)               0.91             0.99      -8.2%

Total Movement                    5.42             6.10     -11.1%

ENDING INVENTORY

Bulk                            240.28           298.13     -19.4%

Retail/Institutional              6.18             6.83      -9.5%

Ending Inventory                246.47           304.96     -19.2%

Total Same

Total Season      Period Last

To Date           Season

30-Jan-21        25-Jan-20  % Change

CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK

Carry Over

Bulk                            254.09           311.95     -18.5%

Retail/Institutional              5.56             5.82      -4.5%

Total                           259.65           317.77     -18.3%

Pack

Bulk                             31.14            55.03     -43.4%

Retail/Institutional             17.19            21.30     -19.3%

Total Pack                       48.33            76.34     -36.7%

Reprocessed                     -32.67           -36.77     -11.2%

Pack from Fruit                  15.66            39.56     -60.4%

Receipts & Losses

Net Gain or Loss                 -0.14            -0.80     -82.1%

Imports – Foreign                61.37            28.73     113.6%

Domestic Receipts                 1.38             5.72     -75.9%

Receipts of Florida Product

from Non-Reporting Entit         0.15             0.15      -1.1%

Chilled OJ used in FCOJ           3.70             8.72     -57.5%

Reprocessed FCTJ                  1.03             0.43     137.1%

Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack

Bulk                            320.05           373.16     -14.2%

Retail/Institutional             22.75            27.13     -16.1%

Total                           342.80           400.29     -14.4%

MOVEMENT

Bulk                             73.59            76.69      -4.1%

Domestic                          6.18             4.31      43.5%

Exports                          79.77            81.00      -1.5%

Total (Bulk)

Retail/Institutional

Domestic                         16.56            20.29     -18.4%

Exports                           0.00             0.00         NC

Total (Retail/Inst)              16.56            20.29     -18.4%

Total Movement                   96.33           101.29      -4.9%

ENDING INVENTORY

Bulk                            240.28           298.13     -19.4%

Retail/Institutional              6.18             6.83      -9.5%

Ending Inventory                246.47           304.96     -19.2%

 

COFFEE   

General Comments:  Futures were a little lower in New York and London and trends are still trying to turn down in New York as the weather in Brazil became more important while prices were firm in London as Vietnam producers stopped selling before the Tet holiday.  There are reports of good weather in Vietnam for the harvest.  However, Brazil has been dry for flowering and initial fruit development.  Showers are now in the forecast for this week that could be very beneficial.  Vietnam has harvested its production under mostly dry conditions.  Some of those crops are starting to hit the market but farmers are unhappy with the price and are getting ready for Tet.  Central America is also drier for harvesting but producers want higher prices.  Good growing conditions are reported in Colombia and Peru.  The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels.  Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.706 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 115.13 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions.  Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 117.00 and 113.00 March.  Support is at 119.00, 116.00, and 113.00 March, and resistance is at 122.00, 124.00 and 126.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1360 and 1470 March.   Support is at 1330, 1310, and 1280 March, and resistance is at 1360, 1390, and 1440 March.

 

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York and London closed lower in consolidation trading.  Ideas of increased demand are still around and are supporting the market.  Consuming countries are buying on setbacks.  It has been raining in south central Brazil and the production of cane is winding down for the season.  Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year.  India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but no exports are coming out as the government has been very slow to approve export subsidies.  The crop is getting bigger as the country reported increased production over the last couple of months.  Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.  The EU Sugar crop is less this year as is the crop in Russia.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1730 March.  Support is at 1620, 1600, and 1580 March, and resistance is at 1700, 1720, and 1750 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 466.00, 458.00, and 444.00 March, and resistance is at 475.00, 484.00, and 490.00 March.

 

COCOA                

General Comments:  New York and London closed lower and New York March was sharply loer on massive long liquidation.  Chart trends are mixed.  There were reports of demand for Cocoa in Ivory Coast, although the reports noted that there is a lot to sell there.  The grind data has been weaker again implying less demand for chocolate.  Ivory Coast has not been shipping as exporters have asked to hold off.  There are ideas of big supplies at origin.  Wire reports this morning say that Ivory Coast has abandoned its tax scheme and instead is offering a discount to get Cocoa moving again.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.545 million bags.  ICE said that 1 contract was delivered against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1 contract.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2350 and 2270 March.  Support is at 2370, 2350, and 2330 March, with resistance at 2460, 2500, and 2520 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1740, 1710, and 1690 March, with resistance at 1780, 1820, and 1850 March.

 

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322