Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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Grains Report 02/12/2021
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on follow through fund and speculator selling, but recovered on what was reported to be industry buying and in response to the recoveries in Corn and Soybeans. Most traders now expect less or no Wheat offers from Black Sea ports after the middle of March. No one is sure about Russia and its new tax regime. Russia is raising its export taxes in mid March but farmers there are not selling. The Russian government move has apparently caused lower prices internally and farmers have reportedly pulled back for the market. Great Plains weather is currently very cold, but not considered cold enough to damage much Wheat. It is also cold in the Midwest but much of the Wheat has seen enough snow for protection.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 626, 614, and 607 March, with resistance at 643, 650, and 660 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 610, 605, and 587 March, with resistance at 617, 640, and 644 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 610, 608, and 598 March, and resistance is at 624, 630, and 638 March.
RICE
General Comments: Rice was narrowly mixed in consolidation trading. The cash market has not felt any increased demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side. Exports had been strong until recently and were moderate last week. Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states. Asian and Mercosur markets have firmed recently but this has not yet affected the US world price that much.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1277, 1263, and 1260 March, with resistance at 1297, 1310, and 1318 March.
Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1277, 1263, and 1260 March, with resistance at 1297, 1310, and 1318 March.
CORN AND OATS: Corn and Oats closed high3er after trying to break through some support areas on the weekly charts. The selling came from funds and other speculators who reacted once again to the bearish USDA supply and demand estimates. Industry was probably the best buyer. Buying was noted in response to the Brazil Corn production estimates that were US Corn is still about the cheapest feed grain in the world market although some Argentine prices are a little cheaper right now. It has rained in central and parts of northern Brazil in the last week. Southern Brazil and Argentina are now drier after some recent heavy rains. The main crop harvest has started in parts of Brazil, but progress will be slow due to the late planting dates due too dry conditions earlier in the year. The second crop of Corn planting is also being delayed and yield estimates for South American Corn have been reduced.
Overnight News: Guatemala bought 115,577 tons of US Corn and Costa Rica bought 195,338 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 525, 515, and 508 March, and resistance is at 546, 558, and 568 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 345, 341, and 335 March, and resistance is at 358, 360, and 368 March.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed higher after testing support on the charts as fund and other speculative selling as Brazil should start to export Soybeans in the next few weeks. Selling probably came on ideas that the impending Brazil harvest will kill current demand for US Soybeans. However, Brail production estimates yesterday were below expectations and the USDA export sales report was above expectations. The harvest has been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems as well. Rains are coming to an end in some areas so harvest activities should increase this week. China has been buying for this year and next year here. There is little sign the US price has rationed demand. The strong demand for exports and for domestic use means there is little room for error and that the US could even come close to running out of Soybeans to sell. The Lunar New Year has started and China is closed for busines.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1336, 1298, and 1286 March, and resistance is at 1395, 1407, and 1409 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 418.00, 417.00, and 408.00 March, and resistance is at 432.00, 437.00, and 444.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4670 and 4830 March. Support is at 4520, 4460, and 4400 March, with resistance at 4660, 4690, and 4720 March.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower on some long liquidation before the Lunar New Year holiday. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields. Wet weather has caused even more delays. It’s a tug of war now between demand side bears and supply side bulls. Canola closed higher in sympathy with the price action in Chicago, but Canola held stronger on talk of tight supplies due to reduced offers from farmers and reduced production earlier in the year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 707.00, 688.00, and 680.00 March, with resistance at 724.00, 727.00, and 730.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 3490, 3440, and 3330 April, with resistance at 3660, 3720, and 3800 April.
DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Feb 11
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary
statistics for the week ended Feb. 7, 2021. Figures in thousands of metric
tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2611.5 831.2 329.5 474.9 73.1 1722.2 434.7 129.1 7300.2
Week Ago 2579.2 809.5 309.2 436.6 72.5 1614.7 420.3 114.7 7048.8
Year Ago 2942.8 729.7 326.2 451.8 36.6 1609.9 315.3 91.5 7087.7
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 503.9 159.8 54.3 108.5 13.8 485.9 82.4 6.6 1473.3
Week Ago 466.6 103.0 55.3 83.5 9.7 398.1 74.0 5.2 1245.4
To Date 11811.7 3386.6 1732.2 3012.3 323.5 12214.1 2565.3 209.3 37941.3
Year Ago 11110.6 2514.9 1433.1 2265.8 171.6 10689.3 2332.1 204.6 32802.3
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 342.8 80.3 13.9 92.0 2.5 157.2 25.0 16.7 785.9
Week Ago 317.5 110.1 8.9 86.0 7.2 173.8 40.7 16.3 807.5
Date 12260.8 3871.5 469.3 2047.5 149.9 6956.3 1664.6 595.5 33113.6
Year Ago 9539.7 3118.1 303.9 1164.2 71.0 5550.6 1475.6 116.2 24999.2
EXPORTS
This Week 480.5 84.3 34.0 67.4 8.9 169.1 3.5 0.0 922.0
Week Ago 252.4 218.0 27.4 108.8 8.5 258.5 26.1 33.0 1022.1
To Date 10606.1 3045.6 1141.5 2106.6 200.8 6368.9 1653.4 489.3 29585.2
Year Ago 8150.8 2469.9 923.4 1149.6 95.9 4696.4 1451.8 12.5 21787.9
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 43.9 2.4 13.9 15.1 0.6 201.4 3.1 12.3 317.8
Week Ago 46.8 25.8 16.6 15.3 1.6 198.3 4.1 7.7 335.7
To Date 2293.5 292.2 405.2 574.7 33.5 5591.7 104.5 448.0 10756.7
Year Ago 2154.4 211.9 166.1 830.0 24.1 5454.6 123.4 343.1 10262.9
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Midwest Weather Forecast: More rain and snow today and tomorrow and then over the weekend. Temperatures should average below normal.
DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 11
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 686.40 -11.90 Mar 2021 dn 7.40
Basis: Thunder Bay 733.50 45.00 May 2021 up 4.00
Basis: Vancouver 753.50 65.00 May 2021 up 4.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (Your Name,
news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322