Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Futures were lower but held inside the trading range from the previous day. All agricultural markets were lower as funds turned sellers. As expected, USDA showed less ending stocks and increased export demand in its estimates earlier this week and the market responded with higher prices. The overall weaker US Dollar has helped demand ideas as well although the Dollar has started to firm recently. The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products. Production was rated as less in the most recent USDA production reports so supplies could turn tight if the demand remains strong.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly scattered showers and below normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to below temperatures. The USDA average price is now 80.74 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 96,810 bales, from 95,146 bales yesterday. USDA said that weekly net Upland Cotton export sales were 275,400 bales this year and 170,000 balers next year. Net Pima sales were 9,700 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 8470, 8270, and 8230 March, with resistance of 8720, 8780 and 8840 March.
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little higher in recovery trading. Prices are down this week in reaction to the increased oranges production in Florida in the USDA production reports. More cold temperatures are possible this week but these temperatures are not expected to damage crops. The weather in Florida remains good for the crops and the harvest is active. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is dining out. The weather in Florida is good with a few showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Showers are falling in Brazil now and crop conditions are called good. Mexican crop conditions are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. The rains now are covering Veracruz and immediate areas, but not other growing areas of Mexico.
Overnight News: Florida should get periods of showers, especially this weekend. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 109.00, 106.00, and 103.00 March, with resistance at 114.00, 117.00, and 120.00 March.
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and a little higher in London and trends are trying to turn down in New York as the weather in Brazil became more important while prices were firm in London as Vietnam producers stopped selling before the Tet holiday. There are reports of good weather in Vietnam for the harvest. However, Brazil has been dry for flowering and initial fruit development. Showers are now in the forecast for this week that could be very beneficial. Vietnam has harvested its production under mostly dry conditions. Some of those crops are starting to hit the market but farmers are unhappy with the price and are getting ready for Tet. Central America is also drier for harvesting but producers want higher prices. Good growing conditions are reported in Colombia and Peru. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.688 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 115.35 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 117.00 and 113.00 March. Support is at 119.00, 116.00, and 113.00 March, and resistance is at 122.00, 124.00 and 126.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1360 and 1470 March. Support is at 1330, 1310, and 1280 March, and resistance is at 1360, 1390, and 1440 March.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher as new buying entered the pit. Ideas of increased demand are still around and are supporting the market. Consuming countries are buying on setbacks. It has been raining in south central Brazil and the production of cane is winding down for the season. Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year. India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but no exports are coming out as the government has been very slow to approve export subsidies. The crop is getting bigger as the country reported increased production over the last couple of months. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. The EU Sugar crop is less this year as is the crop in Russia.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1730 March. Support is at 1660, 1630, and 1600 March, and resistance is at 1700, 1720, and 1750 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 490.00 March. Support is at 470.00, 466.00, and 458.00 March, and resistance is at 484.00, 490.00, and 496.00 March.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher and New York made new highs for the move. Chart trends are mixed in London but turned up yesterday in New York. There were reports of demand for Cocoa in Ivory Coast, although the reports noted that there is a lot to sell there. The grind data has been weaker again implying less demand for chocolate. Ivory Coast has not been shipping as exporters have asked to hold off. There are ideas of big supplies at origin. Wire reports this morning say that Ivory Coast has abandoned its tax scheme and instead is offering a discount to get Cocoa moving again.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.525 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2730 and 2930 March. Support is at 2620, 2610, and 2560 March, with resistance at 2700, 2730, and 2840 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1740, 1710, and 1690 March, with resistance at 1780, 1820, and 1850 March.Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322