About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT          

General Comments Wheat markets were lower on follow through fund and speculator selling seen in reaction to the price action in Corn.  WASDE changed some class demand data but left overall Wheat ending stocks about unchanged.  This was about as expected by the trade.  The Egyptian tender last week showed European and Russian participation, with the Russian offers a surprise to the market given the increased state taxes on agricultural exports.  The US Dollar was weaker yesterday.  Most traders now expect less or no Wheat offers from Black Sea ports after the middle of March.  No one is sure about Russia and its new tax regime.  Russia is raising its export taxes in mid March but farmers there are not selling.  The Russian government move has apparently caused lower prices internally and farmers have reportedly pulled back for the market.  Great Plains weather is currently very cold, but not considered cold enough to damage much, if any, Wheat.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers.  Temperatures should be below normal.  Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will be below normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 626, 614, and 607 March, with resistance at 643, 650, and 660 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 610, 605, and 587 March, with resistance at 617, 640, and 644 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 610, 608, and 598 March, and resistance is at 624, 630, and 638 March.

 

RICE  

General Comments:  Rice was a little lower again on what appeared to be follow through speculative long liquidation.  USDA on Tuesday lowered long grain export demand by 1.0 million hundredweight and increased ending stocks a like amount.  No changes were made to medium and short grain estimates.  Domestic demand was left unchanged.  The cash market has not felt any increased demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side.  Exports had been strong until recently and were moderate last week.  Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states.  Asian and Mercosur markets have firmed recently but this has not yet affected the US world price that much.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near normal.

Chart Analysis:   Trends are mixed to down with no objectives.  Support is at 1284, 1282, and 1277 March, with resistance at 1297, 1310, and 1318 March.

 

CORN AND OATS:  Corn and Oats closed sharply lowr and Corn is now trying to break through some support areas on the weekly charts.  The selling came from funds and other speculators who reacted once again to the bearish USDA supply and demand estimates.  USDA kept the Chinese stocks situation very high despite very high prices reported there.  That made it easier on USDA to keep the demand increase for US Corn below the trade estimates.  US Corn is still about the cheapest feed grain in the world market although some Argentine prices are a little cheaper right now.  It has rained in central and parts of northern Brazil in the last week.  Southern Brazil and Argentina are now drier after some recent heavy rains.  The main crop harvest has started in parts of Brazil, but progress will be slow due to the late planting dates due too dry conditions earlier in the year.  The second crop of Corn planting is also being delayed and yield estimates for South American Corn have been reduced.

Overnight News:   Ethanol production was 937,000 barrels per day in the week ending Feb. 5, from 936,000 the previous week and 1.033 million barrels last year.  Ethanol production used 94.7 million bushels of corn in the week ending Feb. 5, versus 94.6 million last week and 103.1 million last year.  Marketing year Corn use for Ethanol production is now 2.185 billion bushels.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 529, 525, and 515 March, and resistance is at 546, 558, and 568 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 345, 341, and 335 March, and resistance is at 350, 358, and 360 March.

 

SOYBEANS 

General Comments:  Soybeans and the products all closed sharply lower as fund and other speculative selling as Brazil should start to export Soybeans in the next few weeks.  USDA on Tuesday increased export demand by 20 million bushels and left ending stocks down at 120 million bushels.  The estimates were in line with trade ideas and show a very tight situation going forward.  Selling probably came on ideas that the impending Brazil harvest will kill current demand for US Soybeans.  The harvest has been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems as well.  Rains are coming to an end in some areas so harvest activities should increase this week.  China has been buying for this year and next year here.  There is little sign the US price has rationed demand.  The strong demand for exports and for domestic use means there is little room for error and that the US could even come close to running out of Soybeans to sell.

Overnight News:    

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1343, 1336, and 1298 March, and resistance is at 1355, 1378, and 1395 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.   Support is at 423.00, 421.00, and 418.00 March, and resistance is at 429.00, 432.00, and 437.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 467- and 4830 March.  Support is at 4520, 4460, and 4400 March, with resistance at 4660, 4690, and 4720 March.

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL          

General Comments:  Palm Oil closed lower on some long liquidation before the Lunar New Year holiday.  The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields.  Wet weather has caused even more delays.  It’s a tug of war now between demand side bears and supply side bulls.  Canola closed lower in sympathy with the price action in Chicago, but Canola held better on talk of tight supplies due to reduced offers from farmers and reduced production earlier in the year.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 688.00, 680.00, and 674.00 March, with resistance at 706.00, 710.00, and 720.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives.  Support is at 3490, 3440, and 3330 April, with resistance at 3660, 3720, and 3800 April.

 

Midwest Weather Forecast:   More rain and snow today and tomorrow and then over the weekend.  Temperatures should average below normal.

 

 

 

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February +74 Mar +150 Mar +105 Mar +72 Mar
March +72 Mar +105 Mar +73 Mar
April +75 May +100 Mar +70 May
         

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 10 

By MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures.

Source: ICE Futures

Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region          693.80    -12.50    Mar 2021     up 8.30

Basis: Thunder Bay   729.50     45.00    May 2021     up 2.60

Basis: Vancouver     749.50     65.00    May 2021     dn 7.40

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,

or 204-414-9084)

 

DJ Malaysian AM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Feb 11 

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 0430 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb          1027.50     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Mar          1012.50     -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun   882.50     -15.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   802.50     -20.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb          1030.00     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Mar          1015.00     -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun   885.00     -15.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   805.00     -20.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid       Change    Traded

Feb           990.00     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb           915.00     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb           3,940.00   -30.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb           294.00     -01.00      Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.042)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322