Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We start off the day with NFIB Business Optimism Index (JAN) at 5:00 A.M., Redbook YoY & MoM (06/Feb) at 7:55 A.M., JOLTS Job Openings (DEC) at 9:00 A.M., 119-Day and 42-Day Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Crop Production USDA Supply/Demand, WASDE reports on grains, and Fed Bullard Speech at 11:00 A.M., 3-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M. and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.
On the Corn Front export inspections blew right through the street’s expectations supplying strength to the complex with soybeans coming in on the very high side of expectations. FAO lowered their estimates of China stocks while expectations are the USDA will not tweak the number, and FAO raised World corn demand 19mmt to 1.778 billion tons. Dry weather is stressing crops in Argentina and rains in Brazil are slowing corn re-plantings as we head into today’s USDA and WASDE numbers. The March corn settled at 563 ¾ which was up 15 ¼ cents in yesterday’s trading session. And in the overnight electronic session the March corn is currently trading at 567 ¾ which is 4 cents higher. The trading range has been 570 ¾ to 564.
On the Ethanol Front Brazilian ethanol imports are down 57% on the year, the lowest amount imported in January since 2016. The Chinese seem interested in U.S. ethanol and many other countries are poised to import U.S. product as well. The USDA will provide corn for ethanol use in today’s report. There were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session. The April contract settled at 1.749 and is currently showing 1 bid @ 1.501 with 0 offers posted and Open Interest at 43 contracts.
On the Crude Oil front China helps Brent crude pass the $60 milestone and crude oil rose for the seventh day in New York, the longest streak in almost two years. These are continued signs the global market is tightening and demand is improving. Meanwhile Marathon Oil and Occidental Petroleum stocks soar leading the energy sector to broad gains. The API Energy Stocks will be released at 3:30 P.M. I am expecting withdrawals again as Saudi Arabia is doing their best to keep the market in re-balance with OPEC and OPEC+. In the overnight electronic session, the March crude oil is currently trading at 5895 which is 8 tics higher. The trading range has been 5862 to 5755.
On the natural gas Front the market moved higher but was met with resistance and heavy selling pressure but did manage to settle higher on the day in yesterday’s action. The weather is expected to be much colder than normal the next two weeks. The ridge/trough pattern could mean the cold weather could remain in place for a considerable time. LNG exports continue to rise, and Los Angeles is taking 180% in the states hostile stand on LNG with signing a multi-year contract between L.A. Metro and Clean Energy for more than 47 million gallons of Renewable Natural Gas (RNG). The move is intended to switchover the nation’s largest bus fleet to cleaner energy. Imagine waiting for a bus if they were powered solely by electricity, walking might sound like a better option. In the overnight electronic session, the march natural gas is currently trading at 2.815 which is .067 lower. The trading range has been 2.927 to 2.807.
Have A Great Trading Day!