About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON       

General Comments:  Cotton closed lower in consolidation trading.  USDA cut production by another 1.0 million bales and increased export demand.  Domestic demand was trimmed a bit, but ending stocks dropped sharply.  Traders had expected USDA to drop production and ending stocks estimates, but not by as much as USDA did.  The US weather outlook calls for drier and colder weather for Texas after some big snows over the weekend.  It should be colder in the Delta and Southeast as well.  Attention for overseas weather has turned south and it is dry in Bahia, Brazil

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions and mostly near normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 76.78 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 68,631 bales, from 68,681 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8270 and 8540 March.  Support is at 8040, 7960, and 7870 March, with resistance of 8190, 9020 and 9050 March. USDA said that net Upland Cotton weekly export sales were 326,000 bales this year and 50,300 bales next year.  Net Pima sales were 35,900 bales this year and 400 bales next year.

 

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ closed higher on reduced production estimates from USDA.  The weather in Florida remains good for the crops although it has been cold recently.  The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home.  Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is dining out.  The weather in Florida is good with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation.  Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used.  Showers are falling in Brazil now and these need to continue to ensure good tree health.  However, it could turn warm and dry again next week.  Mexican crop conditions are called good with rains.

Overnight News:  Florida should get isolated showers or dry conditions.  Temperatures will trend to below normal.   Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.   ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January contracts today and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 121.00, 120.00, and 116.00 March, with resistance at 127.00, 128.00, and 129.00 March.

 

COFFEE   

General Comments:  Futures were higher in New York and in London despite forecasts for good weather in Brazil and Vietnam.  Speculators were the best buyers and appeared to be buying for chart based reasons.  The market is looking ahead to next year and Brazil has been dry for flowering and initial fruit development.  Sufficient rains are falling now to support crops.  Vietnam has harvested its production under mostly dry conditions.  Some of those crops are starting to hit the market.  Central America is also drier for harvesting.  The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking Coffee at home.  Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica.  The weather is good in Colombia and Peru.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.515 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 115.87 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions.  Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 127.00, 130.00, and 132.00 March.  Support is at 122.00, 119.00, and 116.00 March, and resistance is at 129.00, 130.00 and 134.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed.   Support is at 1290, 1260, and 1230 March, and resistance is at 1340, 1360, and 1380 March.

 

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York and London closed higher, with London breaking out to the upside.  UNICA released new cane crushing data last week and the crushing rates were sharply lower.  It has been raining in south central Brazil and the production of cane is winding down for the season.  The rains have come late to the region.  Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year.  India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but no exports are coming out.  Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.  The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease.  Coronavirus has returned to the world and has caused some demand concerns, especially for Ethanol.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1540, 1510, and 1490 March, and resistance is at 1600, 1630, and 1660 March.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 456.00 and 468.00 March.  Support is at 439.00, 433.00, and 425.00 March, and resistance is at 450.00, 453.00, and 456.00 March.

 

COCOA                

General Comments:  New York and London closed a little higher as the market searches for a bottom in this area.  Importers are still looking for ways to source Cocoa without paying a premium demanded by Ivory Coast and Ghana.  Both countries have instituted a living wage for producers there and are looking to tax exports to pay the increased wages.  Buyers have been accused of using certified stocks from the exchange instead of buying from origin.  Origin has ample supplies to sell right now.  There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US.  Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic.  The next grind data is due out over the next couple of weeks.  Ivory Coast has not been shipping as exporters have asked to hold off.  There is about 100,000 tons ready to ship with no buyers at this time.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.215 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2470, 2440, and 2410 March, with resistance at 2550, 2650, and 2660 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1660, 1620, and 1610 March, with resistance at 1720, 1750, and 1780 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322