About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT          

General Comments Wheat markets were mostly higher and trends turned up on the daily charts.  Only Chicago SRW was lower.  It was mostly a consolidation day after the USDA reports were released on Tuesday.  USDA cut ending stocks and increased domestic feed demand to account for less than expected quarterly stocks.  World markets remained stable and there are more forecasts for rain and snow in the southern Great Plains.  Rain and snow will be beneficial to crops in the region.  Southern Russia has also gotten some rain and snow now as the crops there are dormant.  The snow can help protect crops against Winterkill and the rain and snow can be used in the Spring to support initial growth..  US prices remain very close to international prices and US markets have searched for new demand.  Export demand has remained stable and moderate with the close price relationships.  World prices have held steady or worked higher even with additional supplies available to the market as Russian prices remain elevated.  Australian supplies have increased as its harvest is moving to completion.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers or dry conditions.  Temperatures should be near normal.  Northern areas should see scattered showers today and tomorrow, then mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 686 and 721 March.  Support is at 648, 629, and 614 March, with resistance at 682, 688, and 694 March.  Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 663 and 674 March.  Support is at 616, 602, and 587 March, with resistance at 639, 642, and 648 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 650 March.  Support is at 618, 612, and 606 March, and resistance is at 636, 638, and 644 March.

 

RICE  

General Comments:  Rice was sharply higher once again in response to the USDA reports.  USDA increased domestic demand sharply and cut ending stocks estimates.  Exports were reduced and production was increased slightly.  Cash market sources doubt the increased domestic demand, but speculators are buying.  The cash market is still slow and has been sterady until this week.  Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions.  However, USDA must expect domestic demand to increase a lot very soon.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get scattered showers this weekend. Temperatures should be below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1318 March.  Support is at 1301, 1283, and 1281 March, with resistance at 1213, 1324, and 1336 March.

 

CORN AND OATS                      

General Comments:  Corn was higher on follow through buying and Oats were a little higher in consolidation trading.  USDA cut yields and production for the US and lowered ending stocks levels despite less demand.  Export demand has held relatively strong as US Corn is about the cheapest feed grain in the world market.  Domestic demand has been less due to reduced demand for ethanol processing and questions about feed demand.  It has rained in central and northern Brazil in the last week.  Southern Brazil and Argentina got some very beneficial rain over the weekend.  Drought could develop in Brazil and Argentina as the overall weather patterns have been dry and as dry weather is in the forecast for Argentina and southern Brazil.  The drought is especially serious in South America for the first Corn crop but the second crop could also be affected due to late planting in central and northern Brazil.  Dry weather has delayed the Soybeans planting and that will delay the second Corn planting later.  Argentina has removed its export ban on Corn.

Overnight News:   

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are up with no objectives.  Support is at 517, 503, and 496 March, and resistance is at 542, 545, and 548 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 375 and 383 March.  Support is at 358, 352, and 350 March, and resistance is at 370, 373, and 376 March.

 

DJ US Ethanol Inventories Keep Rising — Market Talk 

12:13 ET – The prospects for the US ethanol industry in 2021 are largely hinged on how the US disseminates the coronavirus vaccine and if the pandemic ends, thus allowing consumers to travel freely in their vehicles again. However, until then, US ethanol continues to be underwater–with inventories rising another 408,000 barrels to 23.69M barrels this week, according EIA data. That’s the highest they’ve been early May last year. Even so, the agricultural market is optimistic that US ethanol will bounce back this year. “For our clients, for the first time in awhile, there’s a bullish sentiment among them,” says Brian Philpot, CEO of AgAmerica Lending. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

 

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS   

General Comments:  Soybeans and the products were a little lower in consolidation trading.  USDA showed increased demand and smaller ending stocks in its Tuesday reports.  Export demand was increased by 30 million bushels.  Demand remains a feature of the market as US ending stocks estimates are very tight and are likely to get even tighter as time goes on.  China continues to buy each day and has appeared in the daily reporting system of USDA in the past week.  Production potential is being threatened in South America due to the lack of rainfall.  The situation is improved in central and northern Brazil but remains dire in southern Brazil and Argentina.  Southern Brazil and Argentina got some very beneficial rain over the weekend and more is in the forecast for late this week.  The world will need very strong production from South America to meet the projected demand.  The stocks to use ration for Soybeans is now very small and the situation is the tightest projected in years.

Overnight News:    

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1441 March.  Support is at 1396, 1386, and 1369 March, and resistance is at 1436, 1448, and 1460 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 471.00 March.   Support is at 444.00, 441.00, and 430.00 March, and resistance is at 471.00, 474.00, and 477.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4180 and 4020 March.  Support is at 4150, 4130, and 4100 March, with resistance at 4340, 4370, and 4420 March.

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL          

General Comments:  Palm Oil closed lower on ideas that the weak export pace shown so far by SGS can continue this month.  Production of most vegetable oils in the world is less this year due to a lack of production of oilseeds.  The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields.  Ethanol demand has been moderate.  Canola was mixed to higher on follow through buying.  Production problems for Soybeans in South America helped Soybean Oil.  Very strong Palm Oil prices have made buying Soybean and Canola oils the better option.  Trends are up.  Demand for Canola has improved in recent weeks and farm selling has been less.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are up with no objectives.  Support is at 673.00, 664.00, and 660.00 March, with resistance at 693.00, 696.00, and 699.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 3630, 3560, and 3500 March, with resistance at 3800, 3840, and 3890 March.

 

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry or light precipitation.  Temperatures should average near normal

 

 

 

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January +74 Mar +160 Mar +100 Mar +85 Jan +30 Mar +550 Mar
February +74 Mar +97 Mar +79 Mar
March +69 Mar +95 Mar +74 Mar
         

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 13 

WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures for Jan. 13, 2020.

Source:  ICE Futures

CANOLA

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

Spot Price    Basis   Contract     Change

*Par Region         654.50   -32.40    Mar 21    up 14.10

Basis: Thunder Bay  719.70    35.00    Mar 21    dn  2.20

Basis: Vancouver    744.70    60.00    Mar 21    dn  2.20

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or

204-414-9084)

 

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 14 

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan          1002.50     -20.00      Unquoted   –        –

Feb           982.50     -25.00      Unquoted   –        –

Mar           927.50     -40.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun   857.50     -50.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   792.50     -45.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan          1005.00     -20.00      Unquoted   –        –

Feb           985.00     -25.00      Unquoted   –        –

Mar           930.00     -40.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun   860.00     -50.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   795.00     +45.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           980.00     -20.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           860.00     -25.00      Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           3,800.00  -170.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           330.00     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.0355)

 

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 14 

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 272,697 lots, or 1.56 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Jan-21         –         –         –     5,820     5,820     5,820         0         0     3,461

Mar-21     5,836     5,836     5,498     5,640     5,875     5,671      -204    11,238     6,045

May-21     5,850     5,859     5,632     5,655     5,884     5,708      -176   257,711    91,297

Jul-21     5,809     5,809     5,606     5,645     5,826     5,665      -161       259       830

Sep-21     5,722     5,722     5,518     5,537     5,768     5,588      -180     3,444     4,318

Nov-21     5,449     5,449     5,334     5,356     5,540     5,401      -139        45       129

Corn

Turnover: 1,025,018 lots, or 2.92 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

Settle                                  Interest

Jan-21     2,820     2,842     2,801     2,842     2,872     2,813       -59       300         188

Mar-21     2,862     2,869     2,813     2,830     2,878     2,837       -41    31,843      92,812

May-21     2,877     2,885     2,831     2,845     2,890     2,853       -37   823,129   1,076,007

Jul-21     2,871     2,882     2,831     2,847     2,886     2,853       -33    48,162     120,546

Sep-21     2,828     2,828     2,783     2,800     2,836     2,802       -34   100,483     229,783

Nov-21     2,750     2,759     2,700     2,712     2,767     2,718       -49    21,101      23,303

Soymeal

Turnover: 2,067,317 lots, or 77.23 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.         Vol        Open

Settle                                    Interest

Jan-21     3,742     3,742     3,742     3,742     3,660     3,742        82           7           7

Mar-21     3,815     3,815     3,736     3,778     3,778     3,770        -8      79,307      43,469

May-21     3,767     3,773     3,711     3,736     3,730     3,736         6   1,531,539   1,747,883

Jul-21     3,726     3,728     3,668     3,691     3,692     3,693         1      76,805      94,459

Aug-21     3,756     3,761     3,704     3,729     3,731     3,728        -3      27,640      11,538

Sep-21     3,768     3,769     3,712     3,728     3,721     3,736        15     351,731     638,371

Nov-21     3,666     3,666     3,614     3,636     3,616     3,632        16          63         983

Dec-21     3,619     3,619     3,578     3,592     3,609     3,587       -22         225       1,648

Palm Oil

Turnover: 801,878 lots, or 55.30 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Jan-21         –         –         –     7,218     7,400     7,218      -182         0       391

Feb-21     7,482     7,488     7,310     7,318     7,482     7,410       -72     7,378    14,154

Mar-21     7,470     7,476     7,302     7,304     7,476     7,402       -74    12,606    22,880

Apr-21     7,242     7,262     7,032     7,044     7,268     7,138      -130     4,057     7,416

May-21     7,046     7,048     6,790     6,794     7,052     6,904      -148   736,457   345,267

Jun-21     6,882     6,888     6,652     6,652     6,920     6,778      -142     1,270     1,114

Jul-21     6,590     6,676     6,590     6,630     6,812     6,644      -168        30        28

Aug-21         –         –         –     6,622     6,690     6,622       -68         0         3

Sep-21     6,584     6,596     6,372     6,374     6,592     6,464      -128    40,067    45,783

Oct-21     6,400     6,400     6,374     6,374     6,502     6,380      -122         4         9

Nov-21     6,328     6,358     6,328     6,338     6,458     6,338      -120         6        18

Dec-21     6,352     6,352     6,350     6,350     6,466     6,350      -116         3        22

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 841,189 lots, or 65.69 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Jan-21         –         –         –     8,698     8,698     8,698         0         0     3,258

Mar-21     8,422     8,422     8,162     8,204     8,402     8,274      -128    16,979     7,286

May-21     7,978     7,984     7,730     7,748     8,004     7,838      -166   738,111   494,917

Jul-21     7,740     7,740     7,484     7,498     7,740     7,608      -132    15,409    27,169

Aug-21     7,674     7,674     7,390     7,410     7,642     7,500      -142     8,607     4,163

Sep-21     7,560     7,560     7,308     7,320     7,558     7,410      -148    62,058    99,729

Nov-21     7,486     7,486     7,300     7,300     7,496     7,378      -118        11       172

Dec-21     7,312     7,312     7,210     7,210     7,474     7,270      -204        14        62

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322