About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT          

General Comments Wheat markets were higher and trends turned up on the daily charts.  The move came as USDA cut ending stocks and increased domestic feed demand to account for less than expected quarterly stocks.  Some late buying came from the limit up move in Corn.  World markets remained stable and there are more forecasts for rain and snow in the southern Great Plains.  Rain and snow will be beneficial to crops in the region.  Southern Russia has also gotten some rain and snow now as the crops there are dormant.  The snow can help protect crops against Winterkill and the rain and snow can be used in the Spring to support initial growth..  US prices remain very close to international prices and US markets have searched for new demand.  Export demand has remained stable and moderate with the close price relationships.  World prices have held steady or worked higher even with additional supplies available to the market as Russian prices remain elevated.  Australian supplies have increased as its harvest is moving to completion.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers or dry conditions.  Temperatures should be near normal.  Northern areas should see scattered showers today and tomorrow, then mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 674, 686, and 721 March.  Support is at 648, 629, and 614 March, with resistance at 670, 676, and 682 March.  Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 634, 663, and 674 March.  Support is at 616, 602, and 587 March, with resistance at 630, 636, and 642 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 630, 632, and 634 March.  Support is at 612, 606, and 596 March, and resistance is at 632, 638, and 644 March.

 

RICE  

General Comments:  Rice was sharply higher in response to the USDA reports.  USDA increased domestic demand sharply and cut ending stocks estimates.  Exports were reduced and production was increased slightly.  The cash market is still slow and the lack of business has been reflected in futures volumes traded.  Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions.  However, USDA must expect domestic demand to increase a lot very soon.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get scattered showers this weekend. Temperatures should be below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1296 and 1318 March.  Support is at 1274, 1265, and 1248 March, with resistance at 1292, 1301, and 1312 March.

 

CORN AND OATS                      

General Comments:  Corn was sharply higher to limit up and Oats were higher in response to the USDQA reports.  USDA cut yields and production for the US and lowered ending stocks levels despite less demand.  Trends turned up on the daily charts yesterday.  Export demand has held relatively strong as US Corn is about the cheapest feed grain in the world market.  Domestic demand has been less due to reduced demand for ethanol processing and questions about feed demand.  It has rained in central and northern Brazil in the last week.  Southern Brazil and Argentina got some very beneficial rain over the weekend.  Drought could develop in Brazil and Argentina as the overall weather patterns have been dry and as dry weather is in the forecast for Argentina and southern Brazil.  The drought is especially serious in South America for the first Corn crop but the second crop could also be affected due to late planting in central and northern Brazil.  Dry weather has delayed the Soybeans planting and that will delay the second Corn planting later.  Argentina has removed its export ban on Corn.

Overnight News:   

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 532 March.  Support is at 503, 496, and 487 March, and resistance is at 512, 520, and 523 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 375 and 383 March.  Support is at 358, 352, and 350 March, and resistance is at 370, 373, and 376 March.

 

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS   

General Comments:  Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher in trading in response to the USDA reports.  Soybean Oil closed little changed.  USDA showed increased demand and smaller ending stocks.  Export demand was increased by 30 million bushels.  Demand remains a feature of the market as US ending stocks estimates are very tight and are likely to get even tighter as time goes on.  China continues to buy each day and has appeared in the daily reporting system of USDA in the past week.  Production potential is being threatened in South America due to the lack of rainfall.  The situation is improved in central and northern Brazil but remains dire in southern Brazil and Argentina.  Southern Brazil and Argentina got some very beneficial rain over the weekend and more is in the forecast for late this week.  The world will need very strong production from South America to meet the projected demand.  The stocks to use ration for Soybeans is now very small and the situation is the tightest projected in years.

Overnight News:   Unknown destinations bought 464,300 tons of US Soybeans. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1441 March.  Support is at 1386, 1369, and 1342 March, and resistance is at 1436, 1448, and 1460 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 471.00 March.   Support is at 444.00, 441.00, and 430.00 March, and resistance is at 468.00, 471.00, and 474.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4180 and 4020 March.  Support is at 4180, 4130, and 4100 March, with resistance at 4300, 4370, and 4420 March.

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL          

General Comments:  Palm Oil closed lower on ideas that the weak export pace shown so far by SGS can continue this month.  Production of most vegetable oils in the world is less this year due to a lack of production of oilseeds.  The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields.  Ethanol demand has been moderate.  Canola was higher on the USDA estimates and on strength in Canola.  Production problems for Soybeans in South America helped Soybean Oil.  Very strong Palm Oil prices have made buying Soybean and Canola oils the better option.  Trends are up.  Demand for Canola has improved in recent weeks and farm selling has been less.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are up with no objectives.  Support is at 673.00, 664.00, and 660.00 March, with resistance at 690.00, 693.00, and 696.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 3630, 3560, and 3500 March, with resistance at 3800, 3840, and 3890 March.

 

DJ Malaysia’s December Palm Oil Exports Rose 25% to 1.62 Mln Tons, MPOB Says 

Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 25% on month at 1.62 million metric tons in December, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.

The following are details of the December crop data and revised numbers for November, issued by MPOB:

December   November        Change

On Month

Crude Palm Oil Output  1,333,637  1,491,551  Dn    10.59%

Palm Oil Exports  1,624,692  1,303,271  Up    24.66%

Palm Kernel Oil Exports    145,551     91,747  Up    58.64%

Palm Oil Imports    282,058    112,663  Up   150.35%

Closing Stocks  1,264,881  1,561,758  Dn    19.01%

Crude Palm Oil    583,761    722,451  Dn     19.2%

Processed Palm Oil    681,120    839,307  Dn    18.85%

This content was automatically published based on data and/or text from the original source. For feedback, write to singaporeeditors@dowjones.com.

 

DJ Malaysia January 1-10 Palm Oil Exports Down 30%, SGS Says 

Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the January 1-10 period are estimated down 30% on month at 278,450 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said.

The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:

(All figures in metric tons)

January 1-10        December 1-10

RBD Palm Olein               102,089               95,730

RBD Palm Oil                  32,190               39,395

RBD Palm Stearin              29,030               25,914

Crude Palm Oil                32,770              107,220

Total*                       278,450              396,099

*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included

SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.

 

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry or light precipitation.  Temperatures should average near normal

 

 

 

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January +82 Mar +160 Mar +95 Mar +78 Jan +30 Mar +550 Mar
February +80 Mar +97 Mar +76 Mar
March +70 Mar +95 Mar +76 Mar
         

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 12 

WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures for Jan. 12, 2020.

Source:  ICE Futures

CANOLA

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

Spot Price    Basis   Contract     Change

*Par Region         640.40   -32.40    Mar 21    up  7.60

Basis: Thunder Bay  721.90    35.00    Mar 21    up 14.10

Basis: Vancouver    746.90    60.00    Mar 21    up 14.10

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (Phil Franz-Warkentin,

news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

 

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 13 

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan          1022.50      00.00      Unquoted   –        –

Feb          1007.50     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Mar           967.50     +02.50      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun   907.50     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   837.50     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan          1025.00      00.00      Unquoted   –        –

Feb          1010.00     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Mar           970.00     +02.50      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun   910.00     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   840.00     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan          1000.00      00.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           885.00      00.00      Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           3,970.00    00.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           335.00      00.00      Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.041)

 

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 13 

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 185,247 lots, or 10.90 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Jan-21     5,820     5,820     5,820     5,820     5,828     5,820        -8         5     3,461

Mar-21     5,851     6,072     5,808     5,827     5,859     5,875        16     9,454     7,757

May-21     5,871     5,985     5,809     5,840     5,876     5,884         8   173,902    90,216

Jul-21     5,808     5,912     5,788     5,792     5,815     5,826        11       158       881

Sep-21     5,719     5,867     5,681     5,722     5,749     5,768        19     1,702     3,553

Nov-21     5,457     5,579     5,457     5,475     5,523     5,540        17        26       149

Corn

Turnover: 1,179,329 lots, or 34.00 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

Settle                                  Interest

Jan-21     2,891     2,926     2,850     2,855     2,820     2,872        52       203         910

Mar-21     2,843     2,915     2,843     2,860     2,835     2,878        43    49,586      91,712

May-21     2,872     2,930     2,866     2,872     2,842     2,890        48   953,481   1,084,579

Jul-21     2,861     2,925     2,861     2,871     2,840     2,886        46    41,715     123,898

Sep-21     2,822     2,869     2,819     2,824     2,799     2,836        37   112,055     227,558

Nov-21     2,756     2,790     2,746     2,754     2,738     2,767        29    22,289      23,627

Soymeal

Turnover: 2,755,012 lots, or 10.28 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.         Vol        Open

Settle                                    Interest

Jan-21         –         –         –     3,660     3,660     3,660         0           0           0

Mar-21     3,676     3,850     3,669     3,809     3,676     3,778       102     102,810      45,010

May-21     3,645     3,825     3,630     3,775     3,626     3,730       104   2,110,513   1,787,399

Jul-21     3,595     3,759     3,587     3,727     3,582     3,692       110      98,865      92,900

Aug-21     3,634     3,784     3,617     3,763     3,615     3,731       116      33,935      11,397

Sep-21     3,634     3,804     3,622     3,767     3,622     3,721        99     408,665     635,232

Nov-21     3,526     3,684     3,526     3,671     3,535     3,616        81          77         966

Dec-21     3,503     3,653     3,503     3,643     3,500     3,609       109         147       1,702

Palm Oil

Turnover: 773,088 lots, or 5.44 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Jan-21     7,400     7,400     7,400     7,400     7,730     7,400      -330         1       391

Feb-21     7,400     7,558     7,392     7,494     7,450     7,482        32     6,947    17,082

Mar-21     7,424     7,544     7,364     7,478     7,426     7,476        50    10,738    20,329

Apr-21     7,184     7,340     7,168     7,262     7,242     7,268        26     4,714     7,105

May-21     7,012     7,150     6,966     7,046     7,072     7,052       -20   704,351   348,118

Jun-21     6,880     7,018     6,844     6,910     6,940     6,920       -20     1,396     1,083

Jul-21     6,812     6,828     6,804     6,804     6,818     6,812        -6         7        24

Aug-21         –         –         –     6,690     6,690     6,690         0         0         3

Sep-21     6,556     6,678     6,480     6,594     6,592     6,592         0    44,925    44,552

Oct-21         –         –         –     6,502     6,502     6,502         0         0         8

Nov-21     6,420     6,518     6,420     6,518     6,520     6,458       -62         3        19

Dec-21     6,542     6,542     6,450     6,452     6,502     6,466       -36         6        22

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 824,743 lots, or 6.57 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Jan-21     8,700     8,700     8,680     8,700     8,702     8,698        -4       116     3,258

Mar-21     8,338     8,510     8,282     8,422     8,380     8,402        22    19,237     7,601

May-21     7,942     8,102     7,904     7,978     7,984     8,004        20   711,414   502,454

Jul-21     7,692     7,820     7,622     7,730     7,724     7,740        16    17,550    26,406

Aug-21     7,530     7,724     7,524     7,644     7,626     7,642        16    10,974     3,944

Sep-21     7,502     7,646     7,446     7,546     7,532     7,558        26    65,420    94,623

Nov-21     7,486     7,564     7,486     7,558     7,482     7,496        14        15       163

Dec-21     7,482     7,534     7,424     7,424     7,408     7,474        66        17        49

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322