About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT          

General Comments Winter Wheat markets were lower on speculative selling before the USDA reports today.  World markets remained stable and there are more forecasts for rain and snow in the southern Great Plains.  Rain and snow will be beneficial to crops in the region.  Southern Russia has also gotten some rain and snow now as the crops there are dormant.  The snow can help protect crops against Winterkill and the rain and snow can be used in the Spring to support initial growth..  US prices remain very close to international prices and US markets have searched for new demand.  Export demand has remained stable and moderate with the close price relationships.  World prices have worked higher even with additional supplies available to the market as Russian prices remain elevated.  Australian supplies have increased as its harvest is moving to completion.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers or dry conditions.  Temperatures should be near normal.  Northern areas should see scattered showers today and tomorrow, then mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 628, 614, and 607 March, with resistance at 652, 660, and 664 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 587, 573, and 563 March, with resistance at 603, 616, and 618 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 596, 590, and 583 March, and resistance is at 614, 620, and 626 March.

 

RICE  

General Comments:  Rice was a little lower before the USDA reports.  Trading still reflects the lack of activity in the domestic cash market and the lack of activity is causing some volatility to enter.  The market has turned to look for new demand and the spreads suggest that not much is out there.  Trading volumes have been less for the last couple of weeks.  The cash market is slow and the lack of business is reflected in futures volumes traded.  Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get scattered showers this weekend. Temperatures should be below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1248, 1240, and 1230 March, with resistance at 1275, 1281, and 1293 March.

 

DJ Thai Rice Export Prices Remain High as Baht Rallies — Market Talk 

0345 GMT – Thai rice export prices remain at high levels amid exporters’ concerns about the strength of the Thai baht despite trading activities expected to slow during the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture says. It notes that the Thai baht is currently at a seven-year high versus the U.S. dollar. Thai rice exports for period Jan 1 to Dec. 27, 2020 were down 28% on year, it says. Thailand’s rice exports have been hampered by dry weather and the sell down of the country’s stocks. White rice 100% grade B was $522 a metric ton for the week ended Jan. 4. (lucy.craymer@wsj.com)

 

CORN AND OATS                      

General Comments:  Corn and Oats were a little lower amid worries about the dry weather in South America and the demand for the US crops.  Trends are mixed in both markets.  Export demand has held relatively strong as US Corn is about the cheapest feed grain in the world market.  Domestic demand has been less due to reduced demand for ethanol processing and questions about feed demand.  It has rained in central and northern Brazil in the last week.  Southern Brazil and Argentina got some very beneficial rain over the weekend.  Drought could develop in Brazil and Argentina as the overall weather patterns have been dry and as dry weather is in the forecast for Argentina and southern Brazil.  The drought is especially serious in South America for the first Corn crop but the second crop could also be affected due to late planting in central and northern Brazil.  Dry weather has delayed the Soybeans planting and that will delay the second Corn planting later.  Argentina has removed its export ban on Corn.

Overnight News:   

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 480, 473, and 467 March, and resistance is at 500, 502, and 505 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 350, 347, and 339 March, and resistance is at 363, 370, and 373 March.

 

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS   

General Comments:  Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed lower and Soybean Meal was higher in trading before the USDA reports today.  Demand remains a feature of the market as US ending stocks estimates are very tight and are likely to get even tighter as time goes on.  China continues to buy each day and has appeared in the daily reporting system of USDA in the past week.  Production potential is being threatened in South America due to the lack of rainfall.  The situation is improved in central and northern Brazil but remains dire in southern Brazil and Argentina.  Southern Brazil and Argentina got some very beneficial rain over the weekend and more is in the forecast for late this week.  The world will need very strong production from South America to meet the projected demand.  The stocks to use ration for Soybeans is now very small and the situation is the tightest projected in years.

Overnight News:   Unknown destinations bought 120,000 tons of US Soybeans. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 1354, 1342, and 1293 March, and resistance is at 1388, 1400, and 1412 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 451.00 March.   Support is at 441.00, 430.00, and 426.00 March, and resistance is at 447.00, 450.00, and 453.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4180 and 4020 March.  Support is at 4220, 4180, and 4130 March, with resistance at 4420, 4430, and 4470 March.

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL          

General Comments:  Palm Oil closed lower on ideas that the weak export pace shown so far by SGS can continue this month.  Production of most vegetable oils in the world is less this year due to a lack of production of oilseeds.  The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields.  Ethanol demand has been moderate.  Canola was higher.  Production problems for Soybeans in South America helped Soybean Oil.  Very strong Palm Oil prices have made buying Soybean and Canola oils the better option.  Trends are up in Soybean Oil and in Canola.  Demand for Canola has improved in recent weeks and farm selling has been less.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are up with no objectives.  Support is at 664.00, 660.00, and 646.00 March, with resistance at 673.00, 676.00, and 679.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 3630, 3560, and 3500 March, with resistance at 3840, 3890, and 3910 March.

 

DJ Malaysia’s December Palm Oil Exports Rose 25% to 1.62 Mln Tons, MPOB Says 

Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 25% on month at 1.62 million metric tons in December, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.

The following are details of the December crop data and revised numbers for November, issued by MPOB:

December   November        Change

On Month

Crude Palm Oil Output  1,333,637  1,491,551  Dn    10.59%

Palm Oil Exports  1,624,692  1,303,271  Up    24.66%

Palm Kernel Oil Exports    145,551     91,747  Up    58.64%

Palm Oil Imports    282,058    112,663  Up   150.35%

Closing Stocks  1,264,881  1,561,758  Dn    19.01%

Crude Palm Oil    583,761    722,451  Dn     19.2%

Processed Palm Oil    681,120    839,307  Dn    18.85%

This content was automatically published based on data and/or text from the original source. For feedback, write to singaporeeditors@dowjones.com.

 

DJ Malaysia January 1-10 Palm Oil Exports Down 30%, SGS Says 

Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the January 1-10 period are estimated down 30% on month at 278,450 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said.

The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:

(All figures in metric tons)

January 1-10        December 1-10

RBD Palm Olein               102,089               95,730

RBD Palm Oil                  32,190               39,395

RBD Palm Stearin              29,030               25,914

Crude Palm Oil                32,770              107,220

Total*                       278,450              396,099

*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included

SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.

 

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry or light precipitation.  Temperatures should average near normal

 

 

 

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January +82 Mar +160 Mar +95 Mar +78 Jan +30 Mar +550 Mar
February +80 Mar +97 Mar +76 Mar
March +70 Mar +95 Mar +76 Mar
         

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 11 

WINNIPEG – The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures for Jan. 11, 2020.

Source:  ICE Futures

CANOLA

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

Spot Price    Basis   Contract     Change

*Par Region         632.80   -32.40    Mar 21     up 8.40

Basis: Thunder Bay  707.80    35.00    Mar 21     dn 2.40

Basis: Vancouver    732.80    60.00    Mar 21     up 7.60

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (Phil Franz-Warkentin,

news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

 

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 12 

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan          1022.50     -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

Feb          1002.50     -15.00      Unquoted   –        –

Mar           965.00     -17.50      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun   902.50     -22.50      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   832.50     -17.50      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan          1025.00     -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

Feb          1005.00     -15.00      Unquoted   –        –

Mar           967.50     -17.50      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun   905.00     -22.50      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   835.00     -17.50      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan          1000.00     -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           885.00     -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           3,970.00   -30.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Jan           335.00     -03.00      Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.055)

 

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 12 

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 169,694 lots, or 9.97 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Jan-21         –         –         –     5,828     5,807     5,828        21         0     3,471

Mar-21     5,922     5,942     5,820     5,862     5,924     5,859       -65    10,280     7,720

May-21     5,954     5,964     5,829     5,861     5,923     5,876       -47   157,950    90,417

Jul-21     5,885     5,885     5,761     5,820     5,856     5,815       -41       325       947

Sep-21     5,800     5,813     5,699     5,730     5,789     5,749       -40     1,115     3,274

Nov-21     5,568     5,568     5,442     5,475     5,524     5,523        -1        24       148

Corn

Turnover: 1,005,371 lots, or 28.51 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

Settle                                  Interest

Jan-21         –         –         –     2,820     2,820     2,820         0         0       2,831

Mar-21     2,832     2,860     2,800     2,855     2,851     2,835       -16    39,805      91,443

May-21     2,840     2,875     2,807     2,868     2,855     2,842       -13   802,689   1,092,354

Jul-21     2,847     2,870     2,812     2,863     2,854     2,840       -14    39,532     126,570

Sep-21     2,800     2,830     2,775     2,821     2,811     2,799       -12   102,937     227,254

Nov-21     2,736     2,764     2,710     2,754     2,753     2,738       -15    20,408      24,511

Soymeal

Turnover: 2,166,532 lots, or 78.57 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.         Vol        Open

Settle                                    Interest

Jan-21     3,660     3,660     3,660     3,660     3,606     3,660        54          36           0

Mar-21     3,666     3,715     3,623     3,662     3,631     3,676        45      88,907      46,302

May-21     3,628     3,653     3,595     3,635     3,588     3,626        38   1,620,923   1,758,261

Jul-21     3,575     3,608     3,556     3,590     3,557     3,582        25      67,305      89,525

Aug-21     3,617     3,642     3,590     3,622     3,586     3,615        29      18,450      11,273

Sep-21     3,615     3,650     3,597     3,630     3,601     3,622        21     370,581     642,693

Nov-21     3,527     3,550     3,500     3,523     3,509     3,535        26          98         962

Dec-21     3,511     3,530     3,484     3,500     3,485     3,500        15         232       1,684

Palm Oil

Turnover: 704,342 lots, or 49.72 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Jan-21     7,910     7,914     7,550     7,550     7,780     7,730       -50       120       391

Feb-21     7,500     7,550     7,338     7,528     7,598     7,450      -148     7,184    20,007

Mar-21     7,472     7,512     7,320     7,498     7,574     7,426      -148     9,263    20,135

Apr-21     7,304     7,320     7,130     7,302     7,412     7,242      -170     4,944     6,869

May-21     7,144     7,154     6,954     7,106     7,226     7,072      -154   648,291   338,535

Jun-21     7,002     7,006     6,834     7,002     7,114     6,940      -174     1,532     1,042

Jul-21     6,818     6,818     6,818     6,818     6,924     6,818      -106         4        26

Aug-21         –         –         –     6,690     6,792     6,690      -102         0         3

Sep-21     6,672     6,674     6,480     6,612     6,736     6,592      -144    32,996    40,340

Oct-21         –         –         –     6,502     6,644     6,502      -142         0         8

Nov-21     6,528     6,528     6,482     6,482     6,684     6,520      -164         6        20

Dec-21     6,502     6,502     6,502     6,502     6,692     6,502      -190         2        21

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 838,129 lots, or 66.64 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Jan-21     8,698     8,708     8,698     8,700     8,876     8,702      -174        82     3,424

Mar-21     8,442     8,478     8,258     8,392     8,516     8,380      -136    13,332     7,571

May-21     8,070     8,098     7,866     8,008     8,148     7,984      -164   740,961   508,626

Jul-21     7,814     7,822     7,612     7,728     7,868     7,724      -144    15,593    25,483

Aug-21     7,718     7,718     7,546     7,640     7,762     7,626      -136     9,320     3,994

Sep-21     7,622     7,642     7,422     7,548     7,682     7,532      -150    58,828    90,646

Nov-21     7,480     7,486     7,480     7,486     7,666     7,482      -184         2       150

Dec-21     7,452     7,452     7,318     7,386     7,546     7,408      -138        11        39

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322