About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON       

General Comments:  Palm Oil closed higher and made a new high weekly close once again last week.  The market was supported by ideas of tight supplies coming down the road.  Production of most vegetable oils in the world is less this year due to a lack of production of oilseeds.  The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields.  Export demand has been strong and ethanol demand has been moderate.  Soybean Oil and Canola were higher on strong demand ideas.  Production problems for Soybeans in South America helped Soybean Oil.  Very strong Palm Oil prices have made buying Soybean and Canola oils the better option.  Trends are up in Soybean Oil and in Canola.  Demand for Canola has improved in recent weeks and farm selling has been less.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get scattered showers this weekend.  Temperatures should average mostly below normal.  Texas will have scattered showers this weekend, otherwise dry conditions and mostly below normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 75.41 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 68,740 bales, from 69,527 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8370 March.  Support is at 7800, 7720, and 7660 March, with resistance of 8100, 8130 and 8160 March.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 05, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #033661                                                              Open Interest is   276,018

: Positions                                                                               :

:   72,670     8,744    52,923    42,451   197,618    87,765     9,794   255,808   269,078:   20,209     6,939

:                                                                                         :

: Changes from: December 29, 2020          (Change in open interest:      19,657)         :

:    3,237      -591     7,393     4,396    12,744     2,482      -433    17,508    19,113:    2,150       544

:                                                                                         :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     26.3       3.2      19.2      15.4      71.6      31.8       3.5      92.7      97.5:      7.3       2.5

:                                                                                         :

: Total Traders:   280          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:      120        34        69        53        63        46        21       244       168:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ closed a little lower last week as the cold weather threat in Florida has passed by for now with no damage.  The weather in Florida remains good for the crops although it has been cold recently.  The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home.  Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is dining out.  The weather in Florida is good with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation.  Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used.  Showers are falling in Brazil now and these need to continue to ensure good tree health.  However, it could turn warm and dry again next week.  Mexican crop conditions are called good with rains.

Overnight News:  Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near normal.   Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.   ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January contracts today and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 121.00, 116.00, and 110.00 March, with resistance at 127.00, 128.00, and 129.00 March.

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 5, 2021

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)                               :

CFTC Code #040701                                                    Open Interest is    12,757                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:    5,329     9,668       745       107         0     2,451        54         2       502       576     1,443 :

:                                                                                                              :

: Changes from:     December 29, 2020                                                                          :

:     -421      -220        19         0         0       -11         0         2      -126      -104        25 :

:                                                                                                              :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     41.8      75.8       5.8       0.8       0.0      19.2       0.4       0.0       3.9       4.5      11.3 :

:                                                                                                              :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    51                     :

:       19        11         .         .         0        10         .         .        11         4         8 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

 

COFFEE   

General Comments:  Futures were lower in New York and London on forecasts for good weather in Brazil and Vietnam.  The market is looking ahead to next year and Brazil has been dry for flowering and initial fruit development.  Sufficient rains are falling now to support crops.  Vietnam has harvested its production under mostly dry conditions.  Central America is also drier for harvesting.  The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking Coffee at home.  Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica.  The weather is good in Colombia and Peru.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.484 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 114.42 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers.  Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 112.00 March.  Support is at 119.00, 116.00, and 113.00 March, and resistance is at 125.00, 129.00 and 130.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1310 March.   Support is at 1290, 1260, and 1230 March, and resistance is at 1360, 1380, and 1390 March.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 05, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #083731                                                              Open Interest is   310,911

: Positions                                                                               :

:   43,320    21,483    78,301    99,590   191,501    75,111    12,415   296,321   303,700:   14,590     7,211

:                                                                                         :

: Changes from: December 29, 2020          (Change in open interest:       3,426)         :

:    1,004     2,290     2,505    -3,794    -1,774     2,606       397     2,321     3,417:    1,104         9

:                                                                                         :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     13.9       6.9      25.2      32.0      61.6      24.2       4.0      95.3      97.7:      4.7       2.3

:                                                                                         :

: Total Traders:   442          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:      171        69       144       118       121        45        21       393       310:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options 

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 01/05/2021

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

Processor/User

OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

107,024       51,316        68,893        17,131     6,415         1,013

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

100%          47.9%         64.4%         16.0%      6.0%          0.9%

Number of Traders in Each Category

132            43            41           13          4            6

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Managed Money                      Other Reportables

Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

11,205         6,866         5,599     5,339        5,361           9,517

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

10.5%          6.4%          5.2%      5.0%         5.0%            8.9%

Number of Traders in Each Category

20            17            12        14           9               14

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

Long        Short

=======================

5,904        3,360

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

5.5%         3.1%

 

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York closed a little higher, but near the lows of the week, and London closed higher on what appeared to be speculative buying tied to forecasts for tight supplies.  It has been raining in south central Brazil and the production of cane is winding down for the season.  The rains have come late to the region.  Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year.  India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but no exports are coming out.  Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.  The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease.  Coronavirus has returned to the world and has caused some demand concerns, especially for Ethanol.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1560, 1510, and 1490 March, and resistance is at 1600, 1630, and 1660 March.  Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 421.00, 419.00, and 410.00 March, and resistance is at 444.00, 447.00, and 450.00 March.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 05, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #080732                                                              Open Interest is 1,279,025

: Positions                                                                               :

:  222,280    39,300   227,645   377,418   901,212   342,171    65,759 1,169,513 1,233,915:  109,512    45,110

:                                                                                         :

: Changes from: December 29, 2020          (Change in open interest:      61,563)         :

:   26,851    -2,369     8,102    13,661    56,360     8,388     3,244    57,003    65,338:    4,560    -3,774

:                                                                                         :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     17.4       3.1      17.8      29.5      70.5      26.8       5.1      91.4      96.5:      8.6       3.5

:                                                                                         :

: Total Traders:   268          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:       94        32        76        80        81        44        18       251       180:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options 

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 01/05/2021

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

Processor/User

OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

==============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

99,965        44,462        83,413        10,135     3,549         2,834

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

100%          44.5%         83.4%         10.1%      3.6%          2.8%

Number of Traders in Each Category

112            30            42            9          5            6

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Managed Money                      Other Reportables

Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

28,943         1,877         3,026     2,774        1,038           1,751

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

29.0%          1.9%          3.0%      2.8%         1.0%            1.8%

Number of Traders in Each Category

33            4             8         5            7               8

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

Long        Short

=======================

6,040        2,477

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

6.0%         2.5%

 

COCOA                

General Comments:  New York and London closed lower last week.  Importers are still looking for ways to source Cocoa without paying a premium demanded by Ivory Coast and Ghana.  Both countries have instituted a living wage for producers there and are looking to tax exports to pay the increased wages.  Buyers have been accused of using certified stocks from the exchange instead of buying from origin.  Origin has ample supplies to sell right now.  There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US.  Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic.  The next grind data is due out over the next couple of weeks.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.133 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2440 and 2400 March.  Support is at 2500, 2470, and 2440 March, with resistance at 2550, 2600, and 2660 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1660, 1620, and 1610 March, with resistance at 1720, 1750, and 1780 March.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 05, 2021

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #073732                                                              Open Interest is   254,195

: Positions                                                                               :

:   37,026    25,178    64,875    73,410   142,566    64,107    14,013   239,418   246,632:   14,778     7,564

:                                                                                         :

: Changes from: December 29, 2020          (Change in open interest:       3,579)         :

:      803       456     2,390      -258     1,965     1,003      -541     3,939     4,270:     -360      -692

:                                                                                         :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     14.6       9.9      25.5      28.9      56.1      25.2       5.5      94.2      97.0:      5.8       3.0

:                                                                                         :

: Total Traders:   213          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:       72        42        67        47        41        35        18       188       143:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options 

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 01/05/2021

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers

Processor/User

OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

253,288       155,804       176,155       17,953     17,527       11,266

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

100%          61.5%         69.5%         7.1%       6.9%          4.4%

Number of Traders in Each Category

124            47            44            9          5            8

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Managed Money                      Other Reportables

Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading

===============================================================================

19,741         3,074        13,389     3,360        884            28,095

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

7.8%          1.2%          5.3%      1.3%         0.3%           11.1%

Number of Traders in Each Category

28            9             13        12           7               19

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

Long        Short

=======================

3,680        2,898

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

1.5%         1.1%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322